LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

maquiladora

Following up on Ian Fergusson's earlier Netweather ramp/tease. He posted this tonight :

Just to re-stress a key point, as some might have overlooked it, judging by certain frustrated posts! UKMO emphasizes again (in new 6-15d briefing) how potential cold/blocked outcome from incipient SSW remains v possible but crucially how this may not be manifested within their current 10-15d forecast period. So - as others have also tried to stress - NOTHING in any NWP output in further reaches of MR should be taken with even moderate confidence! We are entering a truly fascinating & potentially rewarding period for this thread.. but it'll take time! I'm hoping to hear tomorrow how the good folk at Hadley Centre are assessing fortunes from this SSW.

dacogawa

Ok, I'm a jinx! every time I say it's going to snow or looks like snow 5 to 7 days out it becomes sunny or warm & cloudy, so now I'm saying it is not going to snow AT ALL this winter. NOTHING! :eek:

Redsunset

As I've already stated in the Strat thread, this is very much a loaded gun scenario.
The Strat Polar Vortex is being hit with wave after wave but I don't feel one bit sorry for it.
Somewhere soon in the northern hemisphere is going to experience the wrath of winter's fury
The question is.......WHERE?

force eleven

I'll insert the old straw clutcher here by reminding people that the winter of 1947 didn't get going until 22/23rd jan that year. Temperatures were up to 14c in the days prior to that...

Redsunset

Can we please leave out the Ken Ring comments in future. This thread is for having a winter ramp and not to discuss Mr Rings reputation.

Warning
No further comments on this.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Hold on people, we may need tickets to a new rollercoaster !!

Spindle

t|nt|n wrote: »

Hold on people, we may need tickets to a new rollercoaster !!

Save me a seat

I am going for an epic blizzard on the 1st of February, nothing in the charts say this but just feel it in the bones. You need something to cling to post-xmas

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Sure you can have this for now !

Min

Evelyn was warning people about looking at the internet for forecasts beyond the short term.
Somehow I think she was referring to this forum.

Jaffusmaximus

All the big gun coming out over on NW giving input on strat warming and on the models, I can smell it in the air that something interesting is afoot! Lets hope the Boards forums pick up to give a more localized reading into possible interesting future events!

Jaffusmaximus

Min wrote: »

Evelyn was warning people about looking at the internet for forecasts beyond the short term.
Somehow I think she was referring to this forum.

Maybe she was warning people off Mild Ramping!

pistolpetes11

Min wrote: »

Evelyn was warning people about looking at the internet for forecasts beyond the short term.
Somehow I think she was referring to this forum.

Well there aint been much doing here lately , maybe she is onto Ken

Speak Now

Min wrote: »

Evelyn was warning people about looking at the internet for forecasts beyond the short term.
Somehow I think she was referring to this forum.

I did notice earlier this week when they were forecasting mild for the coming week they felt the need to add that there would be no snow :-)

Min

Yeah she is not a fan of Ken, not that I am either.

Just she mentioned the internet and I am sure this is one of her favourite weather forums...

I doubt she paid up for Ken's forecast :pac:

nacho libre

It will be interesting to see her forecast in nine days time, because by that stage i think she and the rest of the crew will have a good idea of whether it is going to get cold towards the end of January.

Weathering

MattHugo on twitter is abso jizzing his pants at the latest models etc woohooo

maquiladora

Exciting days weeks ahead for model watching....

ninebeanrows

Changes are a foot.

Things may start to get very interesting soon

BEASTERLY

Stewart Rampling(very aptly named for this quote), the senior long range forecaster over on Ne

tweather just posted this:

A potentially very special period of wintry weather upcoming, particulalry with the MJO choreographic itself so nicely.

Weathering

met.ie just updated their long range
hinting at it turning colder at the end of next week

Weathering

good read http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=monthly;sess=

mike65

I wouldn't get too excited. Very little to actually point at.

Weathering

well in fairness there is nothing to get excited about, he doesn't reckon it will be snowy I just said it was a good read-not a ramp

Nabber

We have been here before lads and ladettes. Shall we play the odds and expect a few days of possible frost. Or will we do what we do best. Ramp the sh1t out if this 10 days out and watch it get pushed out and slowly fade away.

I know which one I am going for. Time to order a truck load of salt and a pair of skis.

This thing is on now.

Pangea

Nabber wrote: »

We have been here before lads and ladettes. Shall we play the odds and expect a few days of possible frost. Or will we do what we do best. Ramp the sh1t out if this 10 days out and watch it get pushed out and slowly fade away.

I know which one I am going for. Time to order a truck load of salt and a pair of skis.

This thing is on now.

Im stuck between two ways of thinking
Be careful lads, we all know NEVER UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF THE ATLANTIC
It could steamroll us again this February.

Now that I got that out of my system >
CANT WAIT for all the snow to come in February

maquiladora

Pangea wrote: »

CANT WAIT for all the snow to come in February

If things pan out the right way for us, you won't have to wait until February.

CrimsonSunrise

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Stewart Rampling(very aptly named for this quote), the senior long range forecaster over on Netweather just posted this:

He was very sure of a significant cold spell for the second half of December, which did not happen at all. Nonetheless I think he is very informative but I would be hesitant to take such a prediction as that too seriously.

BEASTERLY

CrimsonSunrise wrote: »

He was very sure of a significant cold spell for the second half of December, which did not happen at all. Nonetheless I think he is very informative but I would be hesitant to take such a prediction as that too seriously.

True but the keyword 'potential' was used so not really a prediction as such. Just a possible scenario of a chunk of the split vortex ending up over Scandinavia. This would allow a ridge to it's west(our north/northwest) which is what we want.

Larbre34

Far too many ifs, ands and buts as usual. I think we will once again be on the wrong side of marginal at the end of the month with the atlantic influence too strong right through the period. No UK forecast should automatically be transposed onto Ireland as some media people seem to do, though not posters here I hasten to add.

The statistic given last night that last year England had its wettest year for 113 years and Wales its 3rd wettest on record, while rain in Ireland for 2012 was average in the NW and only slightly above average in the E/SE shows the marked difference there can be within a short distance under the upper level influences.

To sum up, Im going for 1.5 degrees above average temperatures for Jan 1 to Feb 17, precip around average to slightly above in the south west, wintry precip limited to mountain snow in transitions and low level hail or sleet on maybe 1 day in 40, widespread frosts perhaps 6 days in 40. I think any collapse of the PV will come far east of us and I would be very surprised to see a significant low level snow event of more than a day anywhere in Ireland during the above period.

Weathering

Larbre34 wrote: »

Far too many ifs, ands and buts as usual. I think we will once again be on the wrong side of marginal at the end of the month with the atlantic influence too strong right through the period. No UK forecast should automatically be transposed onto Ireland as some media people seem to do, though not posters here I hasten to add.

The statistic given last night that last year England had its wettest year for 113 years and Wales its 3rd wettest on record, while rain in Ireland for 2012 was average in the NW and only slightly above average in the E/SE shows the marked difference there can be within a short distance under the upper level influences.

To sum up, Im going for 1.5 degrees above average temperatures for Jan 1 to Feb 17, precip around average to slightly above in the south west, wintry precip limited to mountain snow in transitions and low level hail or sleet on maybe 1 day in 40, widespread frosts perhaps 6 days in 40. I think any collapse of the PV will come far east of us and I would be very surprised to see a significant low level snow event of more than a day anywhere in Ireland during the above period.

I agree with what you said about how different our weather can be compared to mainland UK but more often than not we're in a similar trend. You lost me when you dismissed forecast far ahead to only make a prediction yourself up to feb 17th. No one can accurately forecast that far ahead and anyone that does is only pulling it out of their ass. In conclusion rather pointless