LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

BraziliaNZ

I for one am loving this mild weather. I can't believe you all want horrible cold and snow, I can't think of anything worse. It's certainly helping my heating bill. I'm in London but it seems to be equally as mild in Eire.

corksurfer2005

BraziliaNZ wrote: »

I for one am loving this mild weather. I can't believe you all want horrible cold and snow, I can't think of anything worse. It's certainly helping my heating bill. I'm in London but it seems to be equally as mild in Eire.

I don't think you'd love the weather in Ireland right now, it's damp, drizzley and sticky. The sun is nowhere to be seen.

CrimsonSunrise

BEASTERLY wrote: »

True but the keyword 'potential' was used so not really a prediction as such. Just a possible scenario of a chunk of the split vortex ending up over Scandinavia. This would allow a ridge to it's west(our north/northwest) which is what we want.

Well yeah, but I remember a post by him somewhere on the Net Weather forum saying something to like 'Don't worry, its coming!' in a discussion about an imminent severe cold spell.

Kippure

I live in alberta...every time it gets shall i say a little less colder here, colder weather develops in westren europe. Its always been that way.

Thats what is happening right now here in alberta, i suppose it will show in the models within the 5 days or so.

Pangea

BraziliaNZ wrote: »

I for one am loving this mild weather. I can't believe you all want horrible cold and snow, I can't think of anything worse. It's certainly helping my heating bill. I'm in London but it seems to be equally as mild in Eire.

Thanks for dropping by in the ' Chat LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***' to tell us that. You have your mild weather 98% of the time, Let us enjoy the 2% whenever it comes thank you.

SEPT 23 1989

Its too warm something is going to happen:D

maquiladora

Ian Fergusson is doing a great job keeping the guys on Netweather informed on the UKMO thoughts.

Hi all. Ahead of a detailed briefing we're expecting via Hadley Centre, let me just emphasise some key thinking just given to us from Exeter. I've simplified this for those of you who are uncertain of the technicalities and exactly how the ongoing forecast expectations are being communicated (from us at the BBC). In many respects this reiterates earlier points on the forum, but also offers some idea of where we'll be heading in terms of the public forecasts you'll increasingly see/hear/read into the near-term:

The 10-15d period remains highly uncertain but the probability of a much colder, blocked set-up increases with time. Ridge amplification into the UK's longitude appears as early as next weekend in some output (UKMO-GM and NCEP) whilst closer to d9-10 in EC.

By mid next week - as the polar vortex undergoes splitting and disintegrates - we expect an increasingly easterly flow to extend across northern Eurasia

Surface response lag to SSW is variable, inevitably, and can be anticipated as from 1-3 weeks

There's no clarity presently, in Exeter's view, as to whether current deterministic and EPS NWP output - across all sources - has actually caught the signal as yet. This remains highly evident from the chaotic spread in ensembles. However, the cold, blocked story in the latest EC32 is likely significant and not least as it's changed from previous issue, as might be expected given the incipient SSW.

Increasing likelihood of a cold easterly outbreak for the UK essentially grows from day 10 onwards. Whilst ultimate mesoscale implications here are currently unclear, this quite evidently means an increased prospect of much colder weather with attendant frost/snow etc. Note also stronger signal for heavy ppn at times into S/SW and the PFJ drives southwards.

Also, someone asked him about the difference between this and the last 'failed easterly' episode earlier this winter.

Ah - good question!
Key thing is this is derived from a very different 'beast' on a far grander scale, with greater broadscale implications. The SSW is happening - now - so that's no longer fantasy or speculation. However, the next tier of forecasting difficulty and uncertainy arises as - with time - the SSW effects aloft trickle-down, so to speak, into the domain of (most) NWP and this process will, for a while at least, continue to be characterised by some chaotic ensembles into medium-further reaches of output (as we see now) and varied 'oddities' that seem to show little cross-agreement between models or even between their individual runs.

In so far as the UKMO confidence: well, sufficiently confident of an ultimate change of type to start promulgating this likelihood BUT - and this is critical - we're NOT at the juncture of giving any semblance of certainty on exactly how things will unfold across the UK and hopefully that's loud and clear in the current 10-15d forecasts. We have suspicions as to what might happen (!) - as do others watching this all unfold - but there needs to be great, great care in the quality and timeliness of public message. That's the difference between the UKMO-BBC approach to ensure scientific robustness on this story, versus certain newspapers who will doubtless run on this one in the next few days with the usual degree of unqualified hyperventilation and misinformation.

compsys

corksurfer2005 wrote: »

I don't think you'd love the weather in Ireland right now, it's damp, drizzley and sticky. The sun is nowhere to be seen.

Speak for yourself. Today has been beautiful and sunny for most of the day in Dublin. Yesterday even had peaks of sunshine too. As is often the case, the sunniest and driest weather being found in and around Dublin and the far south east.

BEASTERLY

compsys wrote: »

Speak for yourself. Today has been beautiful and sunny for most of the day in Dublin. Yesterday even had peaks of sunshine too. As is often the case, the sunniest and driest weather being found in and around Dublin and the far south east.

Well I can tell you that the sunny south east has not been delivering of late. Horrific weather the last few days. Misty with low thick cloud cover. It is the worst type of weather possible. I wouldn't mind mild if it was sunny, but this IS ****.

Glad somewhere isn't plagued with this, enjoy it!

Weathering

United Kingdom
Days 6 to 30
Regional forecast
Day 1 to 5 UK forecast
Day 1 to 5 UK forecast
Day 6 to 30
UK Outlook for Wednesday 9 Jan 2013 to Friday 18 Jan 2013:
Rain will clear the far southeast early Wednesday, leaving most parts dry with mix of cloud and sunshine, and overnight fog patches. However thicker cloud and spells of rain will spread into western and northern parts towards the end of the week, and may perhaps extend further southeast at times. Temperatures are expected to be generally around normal with a risk of overnight frosts, but perhaps turning occasionally milder in the west in the more unsettled conditions. Little change into the weekend with an east-west split expected, with western areas seeing further cloud, wind and rain, and eastern areas staying largely dry with an increased chance of frost and fog. From then on, it remains very uncertain but a probability of a trend to colder conditions is increasing.

UK Outlook for Saturday 19 Jan 2013 to Saturday 2 Feb 2013:
There is greater than average uncertainty throughout this forecast period, though there is an increasing probability at this stage of a trend to colder conditions relative to what we have seen so far this winter. This brings the risk of spells of colder than average conditions and an increased chance of wintry weather, especially across northern and eastern areas of the UK.

Issued at: 1600 on Fri 4 Jan 2013

BraziliaNZ

Pangea wrote: »

Thanks for dropping by in the ' Chat LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***' to tell us that. You have your mild weather 98% of the time, Let us enjoy the 2% whenever it comes thank you.

It caught my eye, and I wanted to tell you all how weird you all are

maquiladora

BraziliaNZ wrote: »

It caught my eye, and I wanted to tell you all how weird you all are

BEASTERLY

maquiladora wrote: »

Oi!!! Why are you posting a picture of my missus? :mad:

:P

Pangea

BraziliaNZ wrote: »

It caught my eye, and I wanted to tell you all how weird you all are

Its you thats weird in here

BraziliaNZ

maquiladora wrote: »

I'm going to see her in a movie later, what for a coincidence

mojopolo

Bbc newsline at 6.30 tonight has a report on the big freeze of 1963.

red_bairn

mojopolo wrote: »

Bbc newsline at 6.30 tonight has a report on the big freeze of 1963.

The guy on the bike was a plonker.

Jaffusmaximus

ECM and GFS going for a Scandi High in FI this afternoon/evening! Old Man Winters on his way!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

Elmer Blooker

how many times have I made comparisons (since mid Dec) with current charts and the winter of 46/7 ? (before it got going around 22 Jan)
heres yet another one. I wont even bother to post a 1947 chart, I've done it enough times - I've made my point!

nacho libre

yes, the Azore high doing something similar to what it did during that epic winter, would be the dream scenario. if i see such a chart shown at t-48, I'm going to get really, really excited.

NegativeCreep

maquiladora wrote: »

I could literally watch that all day :L

Weathering

Piers Corbyn ‏@Piers_Corbyn
Revolutionary breakthrough! Sudden Stratospheric Warmings now forecast by WeatherAction so prepare for cold blasts http://bit.ly/Vf8Vtr

Strat link animated https://twitter.com/Piers_Corbyn/status/287394497170636800

Pangea

MET UK UK Outlook for Saturday 19 Jan 2013 to Saturday 2 Feb 2013:
There is greater than average uncertainty throughout this forecast period, though there is an increasing probability at this stage of a trend to colder conditions relative to what we have seen so far this winter. This brings the risk of spells of colder than average conditions and an increased chance of wintry weather, especially across northern and eastern areas of the UK.

Interesting they mention ' relative to what they have seen already'. We shall see.

Min

I don't want to be a spoil sport but a winter like 1947 would kill a lot of people.

I don't mind people wanting snow but wanting something the same as 1947 is not something we need or want.

The estimation is at least 600 people died from the effects of the 1947 winter.

http://www.theirishstory.com/2012/02/08/book-review-irelands-arctic-siege/

Fine for people to ramp but don't look for something this country would be unable to handle.
A 1947 situation would be the nightmare situation.

gbee

Min wrote: »

I don't want to be a spoil sport but a winter like 1947 would kill a lot of people..

I'd say about 30 in today's living environment. Whether one puts that into collateral damage or acceptable losses is naturally another debate, but past weather has had impacts that just will not impact in the same way today.

A bit of snow and cold will be little more than an inconvenience today.

icesnowfrost

Min wrote: »

I don't want to be a spoil sport but a winter like 1947 would kill a lot of people.

I don't mind people wanting snow but wanting something the same as 1947 is not something we need or want.

The estimation is at least 600 people died from the effects of the 1947 winter.

http://www.theirishstory.com/2012/02/08/book-review-irelands-arctic-siege/

Fine for people to ramp but don't look for something this country would be unable to handle.
A 1947 situation would be the nightmare situation.

People die on the roads every day. 1947 vs 2013 things are a lot better now than they were back then better support for old and vulnerable people. You don't need snow and ice to kill people. Your a bit morbid there I think. I for one don't apologise for wanting cold and loads of snow. Don't forget in summer when temps get well above normal that has been responsible for deats of some people to. Not having a dig at u, I'm just saying.

nacho libre

rarely do i see people who crave heatwaves or other extreme weather events, which bring hardship, being asked to feel guilty about wishing for such things. In any event it's pointless requiring that of anyone- if those of us who love cold weather controlled the weather, then you might have grounds to complain.

Jaffusmaximus

icesnowfrost wrote: »

People die on the roads every day. 1947 vs 2013 things are a lot better now than they were back then better support for old and vulnerable people. You don't need snow and ice to kill people. Your a bit morbid there I think. I for one don't apologise for wanting cold and loads of snow. Don't forget in summer when temps get well above normal that has been responsible for deats of some people to. Not having a dig at u, I'm just saying.

Bit early to suggest 1947 all over again! But should things get chilly dare I suggest its up to people to look after the elderly and frail and to take care of themselves sensibly, the weather is what it is but people can either help or sit by.

Min

nacho libre wrote: »

rarely do i see people who crave heatwaves or other extreme weather events, which bring hardship, being asked to feel guilty about wishing for such things. In any event it's pointless requiring that of anyone- if those of us who love cold weather controlled the weather, then you might have grounds to complain.

I don't think anyone was looking for the heatwaves of 2003 in France that killed just under 15,000 in heat related deaths.

I just think one shouldn't wish for extremes, I had a relation who died because of the snow in 1947 because the doctor was unable to travel out due to the sheer amount of snow.
It would be the same today, but maybe the army would be available for an airlift if roads were impassable, but death tolls would be high due to cold related deaths.

There would be a lot of deaths if 1947 happened again, electricity power lines would be down so no heating for many, snow would be needed for water if one depended on a well that uses electricity to pump the water.
The population is higher now than then but probably more unprepared than ever for a 1947 style event if it was to occur.

I am not having a go at you, but one should be realistic what it would mean - hardship and for the worst affected it would be a matter of life and death.
It might be a dream to experience it, but sometimes dreams are best left unfulfilled.
I just know my father who did experience it, is haunted by the memory of it. The hay was not good from the wet summer of 1946, the relation who died, there was no electricity then, he had wood collected before it, but others hadn't, a person about a mile away had hungry cattle eating the thatch off the roof because the snow was so high.
A shovel was needed inside the house so one could dig their way out if the snow drifted against the house.
It is just something we don't need, that is all I am saying. Nothing personal, just the realities of a 1947 winter would be a nightmare for this country.

Redsunset

http://www.turtlebunbury.com/history/history_irish/history_irish_big_snow.htm

The Blizzard’ of February 25th was the greatest single snowfall on record and lasted for close on fifty consecutive hours. It smothered the entire island in a blanket of snow. Driven by persistent easterly gales, the snow drifted until every hollow, depression, arch and alleyway was filled and the Irish countryside became a vast ashen wasteland. Nothing was familiar anymore. Everything on the frozen landscape was a sea of white. The freezing temperatures solidified the surface and it was to be an astonishing three weeks before the snows began to melt.






All hail THE GREAT WHITE SIBERIAN ARMY for........

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U206PQSMMLc

for someone......:D