LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

Jaffusmaximus

Does anyone know where Sponge Bob is I thought he would be here telling everyone things would be going zonal by now?

Calibos

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

Does anyone know where Sponge Bob is I thought he would be here telling everyone things would be going zonal by now?

The White Wizard of the North banished him from boards for his anti snow Heresy's.

Similarily to Darkman, he misbehaved elsewhere on boards and the Weather forum lost another valued contributor.

I'll miss his schadenfruede everytime we snow bunnies ended up disappointed.

Redsunset

Stay on topic please.
Sponge Bob Site Ban is Not for discussion on here.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

I know I shouldn't get excited cause the weather has stiffed us a few times but i can't help it, some great output coming from the models !

Jaffusmaximus

Its worth keep an eye on Sun Spot activity about this time to see any correlation between any coronal mass ejections and effects on the jet stream over the coming weeks. After an extremely quite period the number of sun spots are increasing with that a possibility of coronal mass ejections occurring. Would be such a shame to have unique blocking set up wiped out in a relative blink of the eye!

http://spaceweather.com/

amen

so what are the models saying for a chance of snow this year Ireland (generally) and the West (Galway) ?

Iancar29

amen wrote: »

so what are the models saying for a chance of snow this year Ireland (generally) and the West (Galway) ?

BEASTERLY

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

Its worth keep an eye on Sun Spot activity about this time to see any correlation between any coronal mass ejections and effects on the jet stream over the coming weeks. After an extremely quite period the number of sun spots are increasing with that a possibility of coronal mass ejections occurring. Would be such a shame to have unique blocking set up wiped out in a relative blink of the eye!

http://spaceweather.com/

Well the jetstream isn't a driver it's self, it is only a result of the Polar vortex. The polar vortex is currently under attack from the first of what currently looks like 3 warming events. I don't think solar activity has enough of an influence to undo this at this stage, even if it's effects were immediate.

Also what is different about this set up is that tropospheric factors are playing nice too. The MJO looks like moving to phase 7 in ten days time. This supports height rises over Greenland. The SSW might be driving the MJO and it might not, cant make any conclusions from this one instance.



Here's what a 500mb composite for phase 7 of the MJO looks like:

You can learn the basics on the MJO here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madden%E2%80%93Julian_oscillation

corksurfer2005

Min wrote: »

I don't think anyone was looking for the heatwaves of 2003 in France that killed just under 15,000 in heat related deaths.

I just think one shouldn't wish for extremes, I had a relation who died because of the snow in 1947 because the doctor was unable to travel out due to the sheer amount of snow.
It would be the same today, but maybe the army would be available for an airlift if roads were impassable, but death tolls would be high due to cold related deaths.

There would be a lot of deaths if 1947 happened again, electricity power lines would be down so no heating for many, snow would be needed for water if one depended on a well that uses electricity to pump the water.
The population is higher now than then but probably more unprepared than ever for a 1947 style event if it was to occur.

I am not having a go at you, but one should be realistic what it would mean - hardship and for the worst affected it would be a matter of life and death.
It might be a dream to experience it, but sometimes dreams are best left unfulfilled.
I just know my father who did experience it, is haunted by the memory of it. The hay was not good from the wet summer of 1946, the relation who died, there was no electricity then, he had wood collected before it, but others hadn't, a person about a mile away had hungry cattle eating the thatch off the roof because the snow was so high.
A shovel was needed inside the house so one could dig their way out if the snow drifted against the house.
It is just something we don't need, that is all I am saying. Nothing personal, just the realities of a 1947 winter would be a nightmare for this country.

Some people are so dull. Have you ever thought of a career in Health & Safety?

People will wish for these extremes because in reality they are highly unlikely to ever come true.

barney 20v

corksurfer2005 wrote: »

Some people are so dull. Have you ever thought of a career in Health & Safety?

People will wish for these extremes because in reality they are highly unlucky to ever come true.

Yea Because a relation dying due to severe weather is so "dull" ... also what do you mean by highly " unlucky"?? Unlikely perhaps?

maquiladora

corksurfer2005 wrote: »

Some people are so dull. Have you ever thought of a career in Health & Safety?

Thats harsh. Some people have to work the land and live in remote areas. It can be a very different experience for them.

At the same time, there is no point worrying about what will happen either. The weather will do what its going to do regardless of what we wish for or fear.

corksurfer2005

barney 20v wrote: »

Yea Because a relation dying due to severe weather is so "dull" ... also what do you mean by highly " unlucky"?? Unlikely perhaps?

The point i'm trying to make is that we are faced when many threats on a daily basis, you don't see people going around hoping for cars to be banned as they might injure or god forbid kill somebody. I would say highly unlikely as well. Those kind of events happen very rarely. I'd also like to think that we might be a lot more capable of dealing with such a situation now than we would have been back then.

I didn't mean to offend or make people dying as a result of the weather sound inconsequential. I just found it a bit daft that people feel the need to bring such talk into this thread when we are nowhere that kind of event at present!

Mr Bumble

To suggest that wishful thinking in the area of extreme weather events is somehow wrong is to imply some causal relationship between the wish and the death or that there is some moral issue at stake. People die when the sun is shining. People die all the time. If people die because of weather, it's the weather or consequences of it which do the damage, not the wish.
So if it's a moral debate, should those who live and work in ski resorts not wish for buckets of snow even though people will die in the mountains because of ski accidents and avalanches? Oddly enough, the same people seem to manage regular and huge snow events without mishap.
People do not die because an individual has a passion for snow. It's all about circumstances and how people respond to them.

corksurfer2005

Mr Bumble wrote: »

To suggest that wishful thinking in the area of extreme weather events is somehow wrong is to imply some causal relationship between the wish and the death or that there is some moral issue at stake. People die when the sun is shining. People die all the time. If people die because of weather, it's the weather or consequences of it which do the damage, not the wish.
So if it's a moral debate, should those who live and work in ski resorts not wish for buckets of snow even though people will die in the mountains because of ski accidents and avalanches? Oddly enough, the same people seem to manage regular and huge snow events without mishap.
People do not die because an individual has a passion for snow. It's all about circumstances and how people respond to them.

Well said

Jaffusmaximus

corksurfer2005 wrote: »

The point i'm trying to make is that we are faced when many threats on a daily basis, you don't see people going around hoping for cars to be banned as they might injure or god forbid kill somebody. I would say highly unlikely as well. Those kind of events happen very rarely. I'd also like to think that we might be a lot more capable of dealing with such a situation now than we would have been back then.

I didn't mean to offend or make people dying as a result of the weather sound inconsequential. I just found it a bit daft that people feel the need to bring such talk into this thread when we are nowhere that kind of event at present!

There is nothing pre-meditated about the weather, if it is to be severely cold than that's what will be. The onus is on people to look after others whom fall foul of the weather. We look on at hurricanes or tornadoes in wonder even though they reek havoc with peoples lives on the news in far away countries. When extreme events occur on our own soul its up to us to cope and even then all be can do is look on in awe at mother natures power to humble us!

Kippure

Some frost for next week now, the cool down begins...;)

nacho libre

Min wrote: »

I don't think anyone was looking for the heatwaves of 2003 in France that killed just under 15,000 in heat related deaths.

I just think one shouldn't wish for extremes,


It is just something we don't need, that is all I am saying. Nothing personal, just the realities of a 1947 winter would be a nightmare for this country.

i don't recall anyone specifically clamouring for that heat wave, though i do recall people being fascinated by how warm it got. we need to bear in mind thousands of irish people go to turkey each year for very warm weather, can we say they should be held to account for enjoying such weather, knowing that it could leads to deaths in the elderly and the infirm.
the reality is it's human nature to be fascinated by extreme weather events. it's also part of our fabric to have dreams. i can't see that there is any moral issue associated with these wishes. where morality might come into is, if i was indifference to the hardship of others and didn't do anything to help others in need during a major cold outbreak. it could be argued that such conditions actually bring out the best in a lot of people, especially in rural communities. i recall examples of people going out of their way to help others, without expecting monetary gain, during December 2010.

i think we are far better equipped today to deal with a winter outbreak similar to 1947. although i highly doubt something of that magnitude is going to occur this time.

NIALL D

i wish we get snow twice as bad as 1947 come the end of the month

Pangea

Same old pointless debate every year, not worth repeating, lets just face it Min , you wont change us and we wont change you.

Anyone see the old man on the BBC newslines report of the 1963 snow , he said he would love to see a winter like 1963 happen again so that his grandkids could experience it.

Weathering

this is a let it snow thread not heatwave in france thread people

Jaffusmaximus

ECM is BOOM SHACKALAKA BOOM! With a Greenland High in full effect Y'all!

Parental Warning (This Model Run may Blow your Mind)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

Anyone see the old man on the BBC newslines report of the 1963 snow , he said he would love to see a winter like 1963 happen again so that his grandkids could experience it.

i'd like to see that report. if we do manage to get a robust greenland high, that leads to a visit by the greenland express, i'll have to seriously consider coming home for it. i don't want to be away from home in the event of something special occurring:)

maquiladora

I told you we were entering an exciting time for model watching. Expect a full on rollercoaster of ups and downs over the coming weeks. This is just the start.

Jaffusmaximus

nacho libre wrote: »

i'd like to see that report. if we do manage to get a robust greenland high, that leads to a visit by the greenland express, i'll have to seriously consider coming home for it. i don't want to be away from home in the event of something special occurring:)

That's if Ireland will be open for flights due zero viability over Dublin Airport caused by blizzard conditions!

Pangea

Nacho Il upload it for yous to see then.

Kippure

nacho libre wrote: »

i'd like to see that report. if we do manage to get a robust greenland high, that leads to a visit by the greenland express, i'll have to seriously consider coming home for it. i don't want to be away from home in the event of something special occurring:)

I would deffo pay for flights to get back to ireland to experience this




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Can someone translate this?
What exactly is a Greenland high?
Is it just high pressure over Greenland?
What does it mean for our weather?
Thanks and excuse the ignorance.

nacho libre

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

That's if Ireland will be open for flights due zero viability over Dublin Airport caused by blizzard conditions!

good point.

i'll book a ticket two- three days in advance of it, that is if there is cross model agreement within that time frame for the greenland express to arrive, it might be a tad more expensive, but i can't put a price on seeing a significant snow event.

Jaffusmaximus

Deleted User wrote: »

Can someone translate this?
What exactly is a Greenland high?
Is it just high pressure over Greenland?
What does it mean for our weather?
Thanks and excuse the ignorance.

Basically High Pressure over Greenland blocks the usual transit of low pressure across the Atlantic thus allowing cold air to sink in from the North East/East into our geographical area.

Weather wise on a given day during is in the lap of the gods!

Pangea

Snow 1963
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGXMFpRNMBA&feature=youtu.be