LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

Kippure

A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is an event where the polar vortex of westerly winds in the winter hemisphere abruptly (i.e. over the course of a few days) slows down or even reverses direction, accompanied by a rise of stratospheric temperature by several tens of kelvins. This is considered to be the most dramatic meteorological event in the stratosphere.

Going by defination i,d say all the runs from now on are going to be EPIC:eek:

Strangegravy

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

Its worth keep an eye on Sun Spot activity about this time to see any correlation between any coronal mass ejections and effects on the jet stream over the coming weeks. After an extremely quite period the number of sun spots are increasing with that a possibility of coronal mass ejections occurring. Would be such a shame to have unique blocking set up wiped out in a relative blink of the eye!

http://spaceweather.com/

Been watching this too, it's been so quiet, and typically as soon as the models start hint at the good stuff we have our first M flare in weeks. Convinced it was a load of X flares in Nov 2011 that gave us that mild, mucky mess of a winter last year. Hopefully it won't wake up too much.

Elmer Blooker

There'll be nothing EPIC about ME's weather for the week ahead at lunchtime tomorrow - expect a sit on the fence type of forecast,
"details uncertain, some frost and fog at night" - that kind of stuff.

maquiladora

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

There'll be nothing EPIC about ME's weather for the week ahead at lunchtime tomorrow - expect a sit on the fence type of forecast,
"details uncertain, some frost and fog at night" - that kind of stuff.

Depends on what the 0Z ECM shows. If it shows something similar to the 12Z for next weekend then they'll probably mention it at the end of the outlook.

nacho libre

whatever about an uptick in solar activity jinking things, please let no one here tell their friends and family members snowmageddon is coming- at least not until we have cross model agreement within 72 hours. Thanks:)

123 LC

I've been following these threads for a while now, do ye think this run has a better chance of delivering than the one in december? (i know little about models etc so i wouldn't know :P)

mikom

Two weeks to wait folks.
Just posted in the Fashion & Appearance forum

shalclon wrote: »

hi ladies.looking for some ideas.im going to a wedding in two wks where it will be snowing.iv nothing got to wear yet but been looking loads but not finding wat i after.just thought because its sumtin so diff b good chance to wear sumtin diff and not go for d typical coast weddin outfit wich i have plenty of. would love a maxi dress with sleeves to avoid d "will i wont i wear tan question". i was thinking lace detail or sequins? anyone seen anytin like dis? open to any colour.
tanx in advance!

nacho libre

maquiladora wrote: »

Depends on what the 0Z ECM shows. If it shows something similar to the 12Z for next weekend then they'll probably mention it at the end of the outlook.

if it's Evelyn, she might be more wary of doing so given what happened in December. Also from experience, she'll know things can go pear shaped at the last minute, so she may well decide to be cautious.

gbee

I heard the postman was overheard practising the words "I told ye, I told yo, I told everyone, see I knew, I told ye's!"

Jaffusmaximus

Strangegravy wrote: »

Been watching this too, it's been so quiet, and typically as soon as the models start hint at the good stuff we have our first M flare in weeks. Convinced it was a load of X flares in Nov 2011 that gave us that mild, mucky mess of a winter last year. Hopefully it won't wake up too much.

The Winter of 1947 took place during a Solar Max and that winter was historical, apparently it is sustained solar onslaught that effects the weather on earth but its hard to dismiss anything that is not fully understood!

maquiladora

nacho libre wrote: »

if it's Evelyn, she might be more wary of doing so given what happened in December. Also from experience, she'll know things can go pear shaped at the last minute, so she may well decide to be cautious.

I was never keen about those failed cold attempts the models were showing back then. The strat was unfavorable then and the blocking looked like being brushed away far too easily. I think that if we are lucky and end up with the blocking in the right places for us then it will be far less likely to fall apart at the last minute. This is a whole different kettleofish. Much greater potential. Still only potential at this stage of course, but its early days, the most interesting stuff may still be weeks away.

nacho libre

maquiladora wrote: »

I was never keen about those failed cold attempts the models were showing back then. The strat was unfavorable then and the blocking looked like being brushed away far too easily. I think that if we are lucky and end up with the blocking in the right places for us then it will be far less likely to fall apart at the last minute. This is a whole different kettleofish. Much greater potential. Still only potential at this stage of course, but its early days, the most interesting stuff may still be weeks away.

yes, you're right there is greater potential this time around given events ongoing in the stratosphere, so we can only hope the cards fall in our favour this time. if they do, i hope Gerry Murphy is the one that has to tell the nation the good news:D

Darwin

nacho libre wrote: »

yes, you're right there is greater potential this time around given events ongoing in the stratosphere, so we can only hope the cards fall in our favour this time. if they do, i hope Gerry Murphy is the one that has to tell the nation the good news:D

Yes indeed, Gerry has an aversion to snow it would seem...'schleet' is the order of the day

maquiladora

nacho libre wrote: »

yes, you're right there is greater potential this time around given events ongoing in the stratosphere, so we can only hope the cards fall in our favour this time. if they do, i hope Gerry Murphy is the one that has to tell the nation the good news:D

I'm having visions of Gerald Fleming being wheeled back out infront of the cameras to issue special extended tv forecasts warning of epochal blizzards & drifting with no end in sight....
What? This is the ramp thread, right?

Jaffusmaximus

maquiladora wrote: »

I'm having visions of Gerald Fleming being wheeled back out infront of the cameras to issue special extended tv forecasts warning of epochal blizzards & drifting with no end in sight....
What? This is the ramp thread, right?

They need an anonymous tweet at the last moment handed to Evelyn to read out at the end of her mild forecast saying "-10 within 24 hours"

icesnowfrost

The only weather man who ever seems happy to mention the word snow is Martin kean or wat ever his name is from tv3. Although I prefair the rte weather girls

fr wishy washy

Nat geo wild Year of the storm on now.

Jaffusmaximus

icesnowfrost wrote: »

The only weather man who ever seems happy to mention the word snow is Martin kean or wat ever his name is from tv3. Although I prefair the rte weather girls

Nothing hotter then seeing the word snow rolling out of Evelyns lips!

Min

Some may think I am dull, but i live with a person who lived through the winter of 1947 so I hear the stories of that winter every year. It was a natural disaster.

Here is a book snow lovers should buy: http://www.amazon.co.uk/Irelands-Arctic-Siege-Freeze-1947/dp/0717154483

Book Description

Publication Date: 5 Oct 2012
On 19 January 1947 Ireland was invaded by a freakish anticyclonic weather phenomenon that lasted for two months. The arctic siege brought freezing temperatures of -14° Centigrade (7°F), a piercing east wind reaching 60 to 70 m.p.h., five major blizzards, and snowdrifts of 12 to 20 feet, some topping 50ft.
Cars, buses, houses and entire villages were buried, roads were blocked, telephone and electricity lines felled and towns and farms isolated as food and fuel dwindled. Tragically this happened amidst the worst fuel crisis in Irelands history. People were forced to strip wood from their homes, and nearly half of all Dubliners were burning furniture to survive.
By 19 February 1947 Dublins death rate had more than doubled as the poor and elderly succumbed to hunger, cold and illness. Kevin C. Kearns presents a graphic account of what was regarded as a near-biblical calamity of blizzards, freezing, hunger, floods and threatened famine. This is a vivid tale of suffering and courage, death and survival, of human resilience and real heroism, poignantly authenticated by the oral testimony of those who lived through the arctic siege.

As I said one would need a shovel in their house during that winter to dig themselves out.
Imagine nowadays with no electricity in -14C temperatures. People may view me as dull but it is better to be realistic than to be looking at things with rose tinted glasses while ignoring what would really happen if a 1947 event was to occur again.
The internet would be non existent for a lot of people, no phones with landlines down and nothing to charge the mobile phone. I don't think many would really enjoy it. This is being realistic.

http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/SnowfallAnal.pdf

As Met Eireann put it - SnowfallAnal :P

icesnowfrost

I wonder wat M.Ts thoughts are on the next few weeks

Weathering

Min wrote: »

Some may think I am dull, but i live with a person who lived through the winter of 1947 so I hear the stories of that winter every year. It was a natural disaster.

Here is a book snow lovers should buy: http://www.amazon.co.uk/Irelands-Arctic-Siege-Freeze-1947/dp/0717154483



As I said one would need a shovel in their house during that winter to dig themselves out.
Imagine nowadays with no electricity in -14C temperatures. People may view me as dull but it is better to be realistic than to be looking at things with rose tinted glasses while ignoring what would really happen if a 1947 event was to occur again.
The internet would be non existent for a lot of people, no phones with landlines down and nothing to charge the mobile phone. I don't think many would really enjoy it. This is being realistic.

http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/SnowfallAnal.pdf

As Met Eireann put it - SnowfallAnal :P

Yeah but this isn't 1947 in the middle of a fuel crisis and rationing after the second world war. It's 2013 and most of the moaning would be about the roads. We wouldn't be as badly impacted. Sure some people would be cut off etc but that's always going to happen with bad snow and the homeless would suffer for sure. It's up to the Government to house the homeless if such conditions arise like the Ukrainian Government opened heated tents with food for them during their severe cold spell a couple of years ago

Min

Weathering wrote: »

Yeah but this isn't 1947 in the middle of a fuel crisis and rationing after the second world war. It's 2013 and most of the moaning would be about the roads. We wouldn't be as badly impacted. Sure some people would be cut off etc but that's always going to happen with bad snow and the homeless would suffer for sure. It's up to the Government to house the homeless if such conditions arise like the Ukrainian Government opened heated tents with food for them during their severe cold spell a couple of years ago

We are in an economic crisis where soup kitchens are flourishing, we hear reports of people buying cans of heating fuel because they can't afford the tanker to come to fill the tank. The government are cutting back on services.
Electricity would be cut in a 1947 style event, which would leave a lot of people badly affected.


In the Ukraine they are use to harsh winters but still a lot of people do die.
http://tvnz.co.nz/world-news/death-toll-ukraine-cold-spell-rises-61-5299470

A cold snap in Ukraine has claimed another 24 lives to reach a death toll of 61 people this month after temperatures dropped to minus 23 Celsius, a senior Health Ministry official said today.
Forty-three people died in the streets, nine were found dead at home and nine died in hospitals, Georgy Kozynets said.

Goes onto say

Last February, as Ukraine went through its coldest winter in six years, more than 130 people died of cold in the country of 45 million.

Even in the USA, lots of people die in severe cold snowy weather.
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5510a5.htm

During 1999--2002, a total of 4,607 death certificates in the United States had hypothermia-related diagnoses listed as the underlying cause of death or nature of injury leading to the underlying cause of death (annual incidence: four per 1,000,000 population). Exposure to excessive natural cold (International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision [ICD-10] code X31) was the underlying cause in 2,622 deaths. Hypothermia (ICD-10 code T68) was the nature of injury in 1,985 deaths with underlying causes of death other than exposure to excessive natural cold (e.g. falls, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, or drowning).
During 1999--2002, among those who died from hypothermia, 49% were aged >65 years, 67% were male, and 22% were married (compared with 52% of the overall U.S. population) (2). A high proportion (83%) of the hypothermia-related deaths occurred during October--March (Figure 1); these deaths occurred in all 50 states during 1999--2002 (range: four to 288 deaths per state), with the highest average annual rates per 100,000 population in Alaska (4.64), Montana (1.58), Wyoming (1.57), and New Mexico (1.30) (Figure 2). Most deaths were not work related (63%); 23% of affected persons were at home when they became hypothermic.

So I believe the death toll would be the story if and when we have another 1947 event.

Shane O' Malley

To settle this somewhat off topic rant, can we all go to mass tomorrow, plead for a nice mild winter and then leave the weather to do what it does.

FFS

BEASTERLY

Shane O' Malley wrote: »

To settle this somewhat off topic rant, can we all go to mass tomorrow, plead for a nice mild winter and then leave the weather to do what it does.

FFS

Irony intended?

Shane O' Malley

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Irony intended?

Without a doubt.

Anyone who things we can do anything to affect the weather is losing it.

The weather will do what it does, we will try and forecast it and the authorities will use the forecasts to prepare and protect people.

Not a sin to be excited by unusual weather.

corksurfer2005

Min wrote: »

We are in an economic crisis where soup kitchens are flourishing, we hear reports of people buying cans of heating fuel because they can't afford the tanker to come to fill the tank. The government are cutting back on services.
Electricity would be cut in a 1947 style event, which would leave a lot of people badly affected.


In the Ukraine they are use to harsh winters but still a lot of people do die.
http://tvnz.co.nz/world-news/death-toll-ukraine-cold-spell-rises-61-5299470


Goes onto say


Even in the USA, lots of people die in severe cold snowy weather.
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5510a5.htm


So I believe the death toll would be the story if and when we have another 1947 event.

-23 degree, that's quite a lot colder than we could ever expect to reach.

Add to that 45 million people vs. our 4.5 million, so that would equate to 13 deaths instead of 130.

Most of those people were probably homeless.

Ukraine is a poorer and less developed country.

BEASTERLY

This thread is out of control! Thats a sure sign the cold is coming!

Blizzard 2010

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

Nothing hotter then seeing the word snow rolling out of Evelyns lips!

Has to be Jeeeeeeeeean or Siobhan but preferably Jeeeeeeeean:P

Blizzard 2010

Be it a 1947 or a 1963 style winter. Nothing can be ruled out. We could well end up being the battleground between the atlantic and the russian/scandy high and be struck with blizzards. By all accounts this forthcoming cold snap could be prolonged and quite severe.

maquiladora

At the moment, the only way of seeing a repeat of 1947 conditions would be to give Marty McFly a call and ask him for a lift back in time.

All we are waiting to see right now is if we end up with blocking allowing us to get a cold/snowy spell. No way of knowing how severe or sustained it might be, so no need to worry or get excited about a worst case scenario. Lets just see what happens!