LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

BEASTERLY

To think we were warned on friday that we would see wild swings in the output and to pay no heed. But look what we've done to ourselves!

aboyro

I'm In a Knot over this!!!!!!!

corksurfer2005

BEASTERLY wrote: »

To think we were warned on friday that we would see wild swings in the output and to pay no heed. But look what we've done to ourselves!

Why can't it just be simple for once.......

I suppose it wouldn't be half as interesting if it was :rolleyes:

pistolpetes11

If you have been following MT's forecasts , its all going the way he said , one or two colder incursions before any deep colder conditions MAY !!! set in the end of January into February

whitebriar

eskimocat wrote: »

Gerry reluctant to say much about later in the week, says he will have more after the 9 news....the tease

He's not teasing.
Met Eireann as usual did the 755am forecast entirely on the ecm again this morning and ditto the farming forecast.
That was yet again in these situations the wrong thing to do.

Tonights backtrack by the ecm has thought them a lesson they should already have learned years ago and they have updated and mentioned uncertainty as we are highly likely to have rain and south westerlies still on saturday next or at least high pressure,not an easterly.
That may come later in the month,or it may not.

Larbre34

whitebriar wrote: »

He's not teasing.
Met Eireann as usual did the 755am forecast entirely on the ecm again this morning and ditto the farming forecast.
That was yet again in these situations the wrong thing to do.

Tonights backtrack by the ecm has thought them a lesson they should already have learned years ago and they have updated and mentioned uncertainty as we are highly likely to have rain and south westerlies still on saturday next or at least high pressure,not an easterly.
That may come later in the month,or it may not.

I knew Met E follow ECM modelling but to think they are that slavish to it is hugely disappointing. Wheres the independent analysis and experience that should take the swing out of daily model runs and balance a forecast?

maquiladora

whitebriar wrote: »

He's not teasing.
Met Eireann as usual did the 755am forecast entirely on the ecm again this morning and ditto the farming forecast.
That was yet again in these situations the wrong thing to do.

Tonights backtrack by the ecm has thought them a lesson they should already have learned years ago and they have updated and mentioned uncertainty as we are highly likely to have rain and south westerlies still on saturday next or at least high pressure,not an easterly.
That may come later in the month,or it may not.

You should really create your own thread for Met Eireann bashing at this stage.

Larbre34 wrote: »

I knew Met E follow ECM modelling but to think they are that slavish to it is hugely disappointing. Wheres the independent analysis and experience that should take the swing out of daily model runs and balance a forecast?

The ECM is their only long range model. What sort of charts do you expect them to show at long ranges if they don't show the ECM? They don't have the luxury of being a huge body like the UK Met Office with multiple in-house global/mesoscale models that can be blended/compared for long range forecasts.

derekon

eskimocat wrote: »

Gerry reluctant to say much about later in the week, says he will have more after the 9 news....the tease

Gerry did mention after the 6 news that in the earlier forecast (farming forecast), a comment had been made about some colder weather next weekend however that was based on information earlier in the day and that this could change and he would have an update after the 9 news. He must have seen the first stages of the ECM coming out

The 12z ECM which is just completed now shows MILD air over Ireland at the end of next weekend. Seriously, being a snow lover in Ireland can be heartbreaking at times

D

Larbre34

maquiladora wrote: »

You should really create your own thread for Met Eireann bashing at this stage.



The ECM is their only long range model. What sort of charts do you expect them to show at long ranges if they don't show the ECM? They don't have the luxury of being a huge body like the UK Met Office with multiple in-house global/mesoscale models that can be blended/compared for long range forecasts.

If the Met E forecast starts sounding like a thread from here then we have every right to be critical. I understand they dont have UKMO resources but they do have buckets of experience and if the 7-10 day outlook looks choppy then they should call 'uncertain' and wait for firmer information. Its far more useful for them to be correct about a wintry outbreak at say -72hrs than to be seen to chop and change a +168hr outlook and practically admit they are copying and pasting ECM. it does nothing for confidence in their service. I gave them huge credit for taking the bluffers head on during the week and informing the public what is and isnt realistic in forecasting, but todays showing was amateurish

Pangea

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z ECM....the dip has become a dive.

Next weekend's easterly looks to be off the menu, but still a long road ahead. The ECM was the only model that was showing something like this anyway, so there was always a risk with it.

Still plenty of potential in the longer ranges.

Couldnt it be just as easily back on the menu in the next run?

compsys

maquiladora wrote: »

You should really create your own thread for Met Eireann bashing at this stage.



The ECM is their only long range model. What sort of charts do you expect them to show at long ranges if they don't show the ECM? They don't have the luxury of being a huge body like the UK Met Office with multiple in-house global/mesoscale models that can be blended/compared for long range forecasts.

But wouldn't Met E have access to all the other charts as well such as the UKMO and the GFS?

I mean people refer to and post pictures of these charts on here all the time so I can't understand why Met E couldn't factor the information from these charts into their forecasts too.

Min

corksurfer2005 wrote: »

ECM is not good at all. Min will be delighted

Well I would rather we got all the snow this month and for for an early spring.
So all the snow in the next few weeks if it wants to come then as Father Jack might say 'feck off snow', my cows will be calving.

I like snow if there is going to be severe frost, as it stops the grass getting burnt too.

I like grass weather and sometimes that needs snow to protect it from severe cold.

pistolpetes11

compsys wrote: »

But wouldn't Met E have access to all the other charts as well such as the UKMO and the GFS?

I mean people refer to and post pictures of these charts on here all the time so I can't understand why Met E couldn't factor the information from these charts into their forecasts too.

They use a blend of ECMWF, UKMO, GME, Hirlam, Harmonie for there forecasts

Weathering

BBC weather man Chris Fawkes on twitter 2mins ago
Chris Fawkes ‏@_chrisfawkes
@MattHugo81 the cold weather will still get here I think, whether this weekend or the week after.

whitebriar

Larbre34 wrote: »

If the Met E forecast starts sounding like a thread from here then we have every right to be critical. I understand they dont have UKMO resources but they do have buckets of experience and if the 7-10 day outlook looks choppy then they should call 'uncertain' and wait for firmer information. Its far more useful for them to be correct about a wintry outbreak at say -72hrs than to be seen to chop and change a +168hr outlook and practically admit they are copying and pasting ECM. it does nothing for confidence in their service. I gave them huge credit for taking the bluffers head on during the week and informing the public what is and isnt realistic in forecasting, but todays showing was amateurish

+1
I do not have met degrees and I'd expect that met Eireann people do,loads of experience and access to the best resources from their colleagues world wide.
Criticism of todays farming forecast that was delivered with such certainty at lunchtine only to be dropped by teatime pretty much is valid.

They delivered it based on 1 run that would completely change our weather to an unusual type.


I know forecasting is not easy but that decision overnight to run with the easterly in a public day to day forecast was sloppy full stop.

downwiththatsor

I watched both of the bbc countryfile forecasts today, the one early in the day had a scandinavian high with an easterly for next weekend at the end, the one at 19.50 mentioned uncertainty more than once and told viewers to keep an eye on the forecast during the week.
The scandi high and easterly were gone from the forecast.
Met Eireann not the only ones struggling with what to output in their forecasts.

pistolpetes11

The drama over on NW , the doom and gloom , the toys out of the pram ,

All in all its game over , winter is gone , the chance of cold is , good job on the amateurs/hobbyists being able to call this when the pro's still dont have a clue what way things will go


Ian Fergusson ‏@fergieweather
@MattHugo81 @_chrisfawkes it's a right kerfuffle, model-wise. No wonder Exeter exercising due caution given raft of potential outcomes.

pistolpetes11

Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81
From 168hrs the EC ENS mean is colder than the EC Op run & still has a block to the NW more dominant than the Op. 12Z EC run looks mild run.



Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81
Yip, just to confirm but 12z ECM Control and Deterministic models are mild outliers against the ensembles from 168hrs onwards...

Weathering

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81
From 168hrs the EC ENS mean is colder than the EC Op run & still has a block to the NW more dominant than the Op. 12Z EC run looks mild run.

You beat me to it

icesnowfrost

Weathering wrote: »

You beat me to it

What does that mean. So is the cold snap that had a 70%/30%chance in coming the weekend now more like a 30%/70%

corksurfer2005

whitebriar wrote: »

+1
I do not have met degrees and I'd expect that met Eireann people do,loads of experience and access to the best resources from their colleagues world wide.
Criticism of todays farming forecast that was delivered with such certainty at lunchtine only to be dropped by teatime pretty much is valid.

They delivered it based on 1 run that would completely change our weather to an unusual type.


I know forecasting is not easy but that decision overnight to run with the easterly in a public day to day forecast was sloppy full stop.

If they go with it too soon and it backfires they'll have people like yourself calling them amateurish and sloppy.

If they wait until it's almost beyond doubt they will be accused of giving enough warning.

No win situation if you ask me. :rolleyes:

Weathering

icesnowfrost wrote: »

What does that mean. So is the cold snap that had a 70%/30%chance in coming the weekend now more like a 30%/70%

I honestly don't know. It's too difficult to say either way with any certainty IMO

whitebriar

corksurfer2005 wrote: »

If they go with it too soon and it backfires they'll have people like yourself calling them amateurish and sloppy.

If they wait until it's almost beyond doubt they will be accused of giving enough warning.

No win situation if you ask me. :rolleyes:

No,all they needed to do on the radio today and in the farming forecast, was what they did this evening and say we're uncertain.
Cured.

I'm with min on the timing of this,let it come now and fcek off by march.

Theres no doubt theres lots of potential for cold to reach Ireland in the current output.
Snow loverswill be unlucky not to see something special soon.

Weathering

Peter Gibbs ‏@PeterG_Weather
@MattHugo81 So to summarise, nobody has the faintest idea what will happen after this Thursday.

@PeterG_Weather - That's pretty much it yeah! Haha. Overall trend definite colder, but how and why is anyone's guess really.

nacho libre

whitebriar wrote: »

No,all they needed to do on the radio today and in the farming forecast, was what they did this evening and say we're uncertain.
Cured.

I'm with min on the timing of this,let it come now and fcek off by march.

.

i just hope there is a 50 hour blizzard in Wicklow between the 5th- 8 of march for your insolence. how dare you tell snow to feck off:mad:

snaps

Anything but this weather. Its rained everyday since i finished work before christmas. today its rained the whole day, its still raining now. Its torture. All i want is a break from this mild damp weather. Dry, cold and some sun......please?

whitebriar

nacho libre wrote: »

i just hope there is a 50 hour blizzard in Wicklow between the 5th- 8 of march for your insolence. how dare you tell snow to feck off:mad:

:D:D

Min

Here let me indulge some. according to Joe some will get the cold, others the hardship :P

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi Victorian Era Cold wave develops over Russia and spreads west next 10-15 day. Severe cold to hit most of Europe, major hardship likely

Expand


Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi European should be alarmed that leaders have bought into AGW tripe. This is the 4th winter in a row of this.Many will suffer.. again

Kippure

Min wrote: »

Here let me indulge some. according to Joe some will get the cold, others the hardship :P

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi Victorian Era Cold wave develops over Russia and spreads west next 10-15 day. Severe cold to hit most of Europe, major hardship likely

Expand


Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi European should be alarmed that leaders have bought into AGW tripe. This is the 4th winter in a row of this.Many will suffer.. again

Dont post this over on netweather....the place would go really into melt down LOL

Matt Simis

snaps wrote: »

Anything but this weather. Its rained everyday since i finished work before christmas. today its rained the whole day, its still raining now. Its torture. All i want is a break from this mild damp weather. Dry, cold and some sun......please?

I dont remember a period of more rain, it feels like its been raining for 5 grey months straight now. I was expecting it to switch to cold, dry weather in December but no luck. Got the Winter tyres on the car for 3wks now too.. largely no benefit (but no hindrance) at this crossover temp (around 7c). Come on, just want something to happen weather wise!