LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

Oarrack Bama

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

The drama over on NW , the doom and gloom , the toys out of the pram ,

Freedom from the nut house:cool:

Ensembles tell the real story. Uncertainty in subtle features like the exact orientation of the jet stream and the positioning and strength of high pressure to the northeast is having a real effect on the short term model output (within around 96 - 120 hrs!) but this is countered by the certainty that no matter the differences, orientation and positioning of surface pressure it is going to turn much colder then it is now - it's just a question of how much colder?

ECM op run is on the mild side of it's ensemble suite and it's not that bad at all.

GFS ensembles confirm the colder trend. These are a really positive set - average approaching -5c 850 hpa in the medium term. Again just a question of how cold is it going to get? My guess is something special for coldies is approaching fast:cool:

maquiladora

Pub run by midday next Sunday has -8 uppers all the way over the UK into the Irish Sea. 6 hours later and they have reached the east coast of Ireland.

The rollercoaster tilts upwards once again.

Oarrack Bama

Liking the 18z - crucial difference the jet stream is playing ball allowing low pressure to drop over Iberia. This is crucial.

This is what we want to see - north/south direction not west/east

Min

maquiladora wrote: »

Pub run by midday next Sunday has -8 uppers all the way over the UK into the Irish Sea. 6 hours later and they have reached the east coast of Ireland.

The rollercoaster tilts upwards once again.

The easterly is back.

aboyro

sorry but i'm posting this again:D:D:D

leahyl

If it were to come off how would it look further west towards Cork....Or is it just favourable for snow on the east coast?

They're going mad over on netweather :-D

(P.S. redsunset if you're reading this - I cracked!!)

maquiladora

Min wrote: »

The easterly is back.

It's no beasterly, but it just shows another example of how things can change on the models when you'll looking 6/7 days out. Cold with snow showers in the east Sunday night / Monday if that was reality and not just a model.

BEASTERLY

Stop the rollercoaster i want to get off now... before i get sick. Ill see you all at then end, the snowy end!

BEASTERLY

I feel sorry for the ECM. Every time it gets up to speed with the GFS trend the GFS changes it mind.

pauldry

The chances are good now.

The weather forecast for next week is

Scattered outbreaks of we dont know in a stiff Northerly wind backing Southerly on the same day and then Easterly and Westerly.

It will be mild but feel cold overall with temperatures too cold for snow but too mild to rule it out.

Further outlook sees temperatures of -18c but this temperature will increase by 1.5c each day until the date of the two week period arrives.

Snow cannot be ruled out in the future.

MET ACME Weather Service

maquiladora

18Z GFS ensembles have lots of potential. The mean 850 temps reach -5 on the east coast and never get above 0 out in FI.

BEASTERLY

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z GFS ensembles have lots of potential. The mean 850 temps reach -5 on the east coast and never get above 0 out in FI.

Yep, coldest set yet. By a whisker.

Lucreto

I don't know what will give out first. My will or my F5 button.

Got nothing done today except pressing F5.

I am going to bed shortly and the first thing in the morning it I will do is F5.:D

maquiladora

Lucreto wrote: »

I don't know what will give out first. My will or my F5 button.

Got nothing done today except pressing F5.

I am going to bed shortly and the first thing I will do it F5.:D

You're going to F5 the bed?! :eek:

eskimocat

Right so we are all back on again great... needed something to relax me before the morning.... so dreams of a lovely big fall of snow next weekend will do nicely!! enjoy folks

Lucreto

maquiladora wrote: »

You're going to F5 the bed?! :eek:

My laptop it beside the bed.:D

Pangea

Pangea wrote: »

Couldnt it be just as easily back on the menu in the next run?

Cough*
People seem to put a lot of passion into each run, pace yourselfs!

Redsunset

Get some sleep people for you might as well be looking into a box of frogs as them so called models at the moment.

BEASTERLY

Lucreto wrote: »

I am going to bed shortly and the first thing I will do it F5.:D

Is that what the young ones call it these days? And who said romance was dead.

On topic, it looks like we might finally get some of the sunshine we deserve after enduring the recent muck.

Lucreto

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Is that what the young ones call it these days? And who said romance was dead.

On topic, it looks like we might finally get some of the sunshine we deserve after enduring the recent muck.

This is what happens when you are are not paying attention you can make an innocent post sound like it is written by a pervert. It was 10 minutes before I noticed.

On topic. I miss the sun, I can't remember the last time I saw it.

Oarrack Bama

18z ensembles continue downward trend on temperature next week. In fact the coldest yet. All good. Sweet dreams!

Redsunset

Forgive me but I'm really excited right now cause I feel everything is gonna get turned on its head once the SSW takes hold. For who will get the cold?

That is the 6 million dollar question.

Oh an another thing just to mention.
Australia is burning up in parts. Same thing happened late 2010.

Coincidence?

yorlum11

Its an interesting time weather wise.Hopefully we can get some model agreement this week especially with SSW firing up.

Calibos

I've found a correlation with Seattle. My uncles comments about weather on Facebook always seemed to match here, so much so that I wondered if he in fact had not emigrated after all but instead gone into hiding in the Wicklow Hills

Must Check what MT is forecasting for his own area just across the border in Vancouver. If its snow in that area for next week that clinches it

Speak Now

The model uncertainty means Met Eireann didn't go past Thursday on this mornings radio forecast. They did give this on the website though "The further outlook is for cold although mainly dry conditions. There is, however, a threat of wintry showers affecting the east coast as winds become easterly for the weekend. "

Nothing concrete on the horizion as yet, just hoping for dryer and brighter weather at the moment.

leahyl

Met Eireann outlook this morning is for mainly dry cold conditions apart from some wintry showers for the EAST

"The further outlook is for cold although mainly dry conditions. There is, however, a threat of wintry showers affecting the east coast as winds become easterly for the weekend."

Edit: Jerry Seinfeld beat me to it!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Redsunset wrote: »

Forgive me but I'm really excited right now cause I feel everything is gonna get turned on its head once the SSW takes hold. For who will get the cold?

That is the 6 million dollar question.

Oh an another thing just to mention.
Australia is burning up in parts. Same thing happened late 2010.

Coincidence?

I'm with you on this

I have a feeling in me waters i tells ya !

Jaffusmaximus

There are reports of animals acting weird about the country! firstly Cats mysteriously getting fatter now this!

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leahyl

There doesn't seem to be as much excitement over on Netweather guys....

maquiladora

leahyl wrote: »

There doesn't seem to be as much excitement over on Netweather guys....

There's nothing too exciting on any of the models this morning apart from on the GFS, but it doesn't get interesting until way off in FI.

New GFS coming out now anyway.