LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

Tom Cruises Left Nut

leahyl wrote: »

There doesn't seem to be as much excitement over on Netweather guys....

To be fair those lads can be suicidal at times if there is a bad run etc.

If you want to gague how things are going you are much better off to check on here, not as many rampers !

pistolpetes11

leahyl wrote: »

There doesn't seem to be as much excitement over on Netweather guys....

Something Ian Ferguson mentioned bout airing on the side of caution cause on of there(MOGPREPS) model was going with a westerly direction I would think although he did say they are favoring the EC output ,

I dont think this event will produce the goods if Im to be honest but its fascinating to watch the models role out and how people take each run as gospel.

Its been said for a long time now that things will chop and change alot with the models getting a hold of the SSW, also things and timeline of MTC's forecast are moving along nicely

maquiladora

The could be a good 06Z GFS run coming up. Better high to our north, slightly stronger low off Canada, at 102 hours.

Min

The cold looks more progressive so far in it's westerly flow towards us.

maquiladora

-8 uppers approaching the east coast midnight Saturday on this run. High pressure to our west and north linking up at 138. Not sure where this is going to end up, but it's again showing something different.

Edit : The rest of the run is very poor if you're looking for anything interesting.

06Z GFS ensembles actually look quite good though in 0-180 hours.



Between the 13th and 15th there is majority cluster between -5 and -10 (850 hpa temps).

Spindle

Okay I feel the need to get a ramp in for Cork and the South, no other reason than that on an FI chart a run I saw had a nice Atlantic low meeting a very nice East wind, giving massive battleground snow

And we all know battleground snow is better than that East coast sea effect snow

*Disclaimer it might just rain though!

pistolpetes11

One of the more respected posters on netweather, his ideas seem to be in line with MTC

@fergieweather posted recently. I look at this and think it might suggest ALL combined data leads experts to thinking the cold will deepen next week, but model output not totally supporting that?

@fergieweather: Likelihood, albeit considered low probability for now, that more widespread v cold, wintry weather will be a feature beyond 10-day period.



.. agree with these sentiments.

The period mid Jan has been tipped up as the transition to a colder pattern as first warming impacts transfer downwards. Thereafter, some relaxation in the cold (but still cold) and then we look again period 20th and then more likely around 28th for full impacts of stratospheric warming, with likely tropical convective signal and crucially Global Wind Oscillation becoming highly favourable for weakened sub-tropical ridge.

Notice on GEFS the number of members heading into the very cold bracket at the extended range.

Oarrack Bama

Best ensembles yet for cold on the 6z. As noted above by maquiladora the average continues to chip away. ECM 00z is more a delay then anything else. There is some residual energy to the north west at 120 hrs which makes things a little awkward. But the push of the jet is still south so low pressure dives south.

Nothing nailed yet. My bet is on a gradual turn to much colder weather in comparison to now from Wednesday.:cool:

maquiladora

All aboard the 12Z Express, now leaving platform 47.

BEASTERLY

One thing to hope for is is a disappearance that shortwave that gets ejected towards southern Greenland at 120hrs on the 06z. That would allow the high to build north instead of being forced towards us, prolonging any easterly.

leahyl

Wow Met Eireann really pushing the boat out with their latest outlook :pac:

"Latest charts indicate that Friday will start off cold, dry and bright with sunny spells developing as the frost clears. But some rain looks like pushing in off the Atlantic later. Cold overnight with some frost developing as the rain clears. The further outlook is for a cool, breezy weekend, with occasional train or hail showers"

Deep Easterly

BEASTERLY wrote: »

One thing to hope for is is a disappearance that shortwave that gets ejected towards southern Greenland at 120hrs on the 06z. That would allow the high to build north instead of being forced towards us, prolonging any easterly.

Easier said than done though. The further north a tongue of warm moist air is forced at this time of year, the more it has to fight increasingly cold temperatures attacking it on all sides, hence the increased chances of shortwaves developing along the tighter thermal gradients that are created as a result of this.

Speak Now

leahyl wrote: »

Wow Met Eireann really pushing the boat out with their latest outlook :pac:

"Latest charts indicate that Friday will start off cold, dry and bright with sunny spells developing as the frost clears. But some rain looks like pushing in off the Atlantic later. Cold overnight with some frost developing as the rain clears. The further outlook is for a cool, breezy weekend, with occasional train or hail showers"

Occasional trains from the east hopefully :pac:

leahyl

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Occasional trains from the east hopefully :pac:

copied and pasted from Met Eireann - maybe it's a play on words - they actually mean the Polar Express :pac:

red_bairn

leahyl wrote: »

Wow Met Eireann really pushing the boat out with their latest outlook :pac:

"Latest charts indicate that Friday will start off cold, dry and bright with sunny spells developing as the frost clears. But some rain looks like pushing in off the Atlantic later. Cold overnight with some frost developing as the rain clears. The further outlook is for a cool, breezy weekend, with occasional train or hail showers"

BAHAHAHAHAHAHA! TRAIN SHOWERS!

DominoDub

train = code for STREAMERS !

maquiladora

Hmmm. Not sure what will happen in FI but the 12Z GFS isn't good for us out to 144. Hoping for FI eye candy now. :rolleyes:

hotwhiskey

Just like last year close but not close enough!

BEASTERLY

maquiladora wrote: »

Hmmm. Not sure what will happen in FI but the 12Z GFS isn't good for us out to 144. Hoping for FI eye candy now. :rolleyes:

Better for th UK though.

leahyl

Oh Gaaawwwd not again :mad: :pac:

Let's hope it goes the way M.T. is predicting...

Jaffusmaximus

From Ian Ferguson over on Netweather!

"Just wanted to stress an important (indeed critical, for this thread) bit of guidance from our medium range folk at Exeter: Do NOT confuse current outlook for a return to the cooler conditions next few days with SSW effect. The latter has NOT yet shown it's hand in any NWP output in any reliable sense. They continue to expect this next key phase - with hugely uncertain outcome - to become a feature appearing from around 10d onwards, and NOT in the more near-term medium range. Current set-up into weekend / early next week etc is not related to SSW in their estimation - just bob-standard winter fare."

Speak Now

hotwhiskey wrote: »

Just like last year close but not close enough!

Bit soon really, it's later in the month where the potential is. Current pattern isn't linked to SSW effect. The fun and games are yet to come

maquiladora

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Better for th UK though.

Yep, always the case with cold coming from the east.

I think at this stage we'll going to have a look a bit further ahead than this weekend for anything interesting.

whitebriar

maquiladora wrote: »

Yep, always the case with cold coming from the east.

Not necessarily
mind you.
Eastern Ireland can get a lot more snow than most of the UK from a proper bedded down easterly or northeasterly.
And as was witnessedin Tullow co Carlow in Jan 2010 iirc potentially a way lot colder!

Where the issue lies,is,and I think this is what you meant,getting the feed to back far enough west to include Ireland in the first place.

maquiladora

whitebriar wrote: »

Not necessarily
mind you.
Eastern Ireland can get a lot more snow than most of the UK from a proper bedded down easterly or northeasterly.
And as was witnessedin Tullow co Carlow in Jan 2010 iirc potentially a way lot colder!

Where the issue lies,is,and I think this is what you meant,getting the feed to back far enough west to include Ireland in the first place.

Well geographically they are in a much better position for longevity and depth of cold with a cold pool to the east, closer to the continent, further from the Atlantic etc.

There would be exceptions like a low to the south of the UK creating a mild sector there with Ireland getting colder uppers in the NE flow.

Oarrack Bama

maquiladora wrote: »

Yep, always the case with cold coming from the east.

I think at this stage we'll going to have a look a bit further ahead than this weekend for anything interesting.

Don't forget it's still going to be much colder then it is now.

We may be moving toward an initial easterly over the weekend and then a northerly or northeasterly. Be interesting to see if high pressure in the atlantic retrogresses in to Greenland post 144hrs.

icesnowfrost

Percentages wise, east to north east coast this weekend any hope of snow?

BEASTERLY

Whatever about snow im looking forward to some cool bright weather.

Kippure

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Percentages wise, east to north east coast this weekend any hope of snow?

High ground along the east coast at best. Hard tell at this stage, we could have a differant cold outcome next run. Saturday/sunday .:D

kkontour

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Whatever about snow im looking forward to some cool bright weather.

I know,
I got an astronomical telescope for christmas, Only got one quick view of Jupiter on Saturday between the rain stopping and the fog rolling in.
I'll be happy with some clear skies.