LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

Rebelbrowser

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z GFS sends high pressure to Greenland in FI and delivers some charts with amazing potential.



The Jackpot.

288 hours :P

I know its a stupid question to most of ye but why is this the jackpot? The corresponding 850 hpa temps arent that amazing with much of the country not even under -8s? Try as I may I just cant read charts!

maquiladora

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I know its a stupid question to most of ye but why is this the jackpot? The corresponding 850 hpa temps arent that amazing with much of the country not even under -8s? Try as I may I just cant read charts!

A fierce easterly wind with days of precipitation coming in from the west meeting the cold air. On the 18Z GFS the conditions are just the right side of marginal for it to fall as heavy snow/blizzards and not rain (away from the southern coast anyway).

Check the precip charts Meteociel from around 270 on to around 340.

If you look at the big historic snow events on the archives you'll see marginal uppers too. Big risk - big reward, if you're lucky!

leahyl

maquiladora wrote: »

On the 18Z GFS the conditions are just the right side of marginal for it to fall as heavy snow/blizzards and not rain (away from the southern coast anyway).

Check the precip charts Meteociel from around 270 on to around 340.

lucky!

Aaaagh why did you have to put that line about the south coast in??!! :-(. (I know it's not going to happen but still!)

maquiladora

leahyl wrote: »

Aaaagh why did you have to put that line about the south coast in??!! :-(. (I know it's not going to happen but still!)

Just for you. :P

yorlum11

fergieweather
9 minutes ago
Very latest UKMO guidance just issued goes for the cold/v cold story predominanting into next week with potential sequence of battleground set-ups of snow to rain and back again in W/SW ; heavy snow potentially in any region;  perhaps with a temporary relaxation of pattern but return of cold thereafter (MOGREPS keeping a N'rly well into 10-15d trend period)

Ian Ferguson UKMO

maquiladora

yorlum11 wrote: »

fergieweather
9 minutes ago
Very latest UKMO guidance just issued goes for the cold/v cold story predominanting into next week with potential sequence of battleground set-ups of snow to rain and back again in W/SW ; heavy snow potentially in any region;  perhaps with a temporary relaxation of pattern but return of cold thereafter (MOGREPS keeping a N'rly well into 10-15d trend period)

Ian Ferguson UKMO

Sounds very promising. Of course Ireland being even further west than the UK would make those battlegrounds even more of a battle.

Still though. I'll take a battle over no chance at all.

pauldry

This is a lot more promising than the December non event.

Could result in a lot of disruption for the North and East of Ireland.

First thing that needs to happen is for that low on Thurs Friday to swing South.

If that doesnt happen we are back to square one.

However the difference now is that the mild weather will have left our shores for at least 2 weeks come tomorrow evening so all East or North wind events will bring snow potential though I think the weekend is promised 6c.

Next week might be 2 to 4c so a few snow showers are not out of the question.

Gerry Murphy didnt commit but his smile said it all.

Redsunset

"A weather forecast is a scientific opinion, not a statement of a scientific fact. It can never be expected to be completely right all the time"

Gerry Murphy

Eastcoastryan

Met Eireann having none of it.. They are going with the possibility of Mild with temps 10-12 Degrees next week in their outlook this morning :rolleyes:

Larbre34

Eastcoastryan wrote: »

Met Eireann having none of it.. They are going with the possibility of Mild with temps 10-12 Degrees next week in their outlook this morning :rolleyes:

Yep as feared we are going to be the wrong side of marginal once again, itll take a reload of serious energy to get an easterly established over us, however thats whats being projected for the last week of Jan so by no means a write off yet

Harps

Models this morning continuing the theme of cool and wet for a few days and more confidence now of slack NW'erlies after the weekend fed in by high pressure in the Atlantic

pistolpetes11

Morning all..

Quieter shift this morning, so thought I would post a few thoughts.

The 00Z EC Det model is in keeping with the 12Z run yesterday and to me, looks like another milder outlier. Clearly it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that the EC is now far 'flatter' because of the distinct lack of a more meridional pattern with ridging up towards Greenland, which is evident on the GFS Det for example. Speaking of the GFS, the 00Z run is also in keeping with the 18Z, and whilst on the cold side of the 00Z GFS ENS guidance envelope, it is not without support from some of the other GFS ENS members.

The EC model in particular is sort of following a smaller number of it's ensembles at the moment. The pattern it shows is, without question, evident within it's ensembles, but there are a large majority of them that maintain a more meridional and blocked pattern that could 'produce' the goods further down the line. Clearly we are none the wiser as to how things will progress from approximately this time next week onwards. The weekends details remains uncertain as well, despite higher confidence for this low to move NW to SE on Fri/Sat before then clearing to the south into Sunday to allow the colder E or NE'ly flow, at least for 24 or 48hrs into early next week.

Take this as you will (disclaimer), but the overnight update of the EC32 day maintains a marked region of higher than average pressure to the north and north-west of the UK (Greenland block) throughout the remainder of January in particular, as a zone of lower than average pressure dominates to the south and south-east of the UK. The pattern is similar to the failed pattern back in November/December and the dominant direction of the wind is either from the N or NE within the EC32 throughout the rest of January with temperatures at least 2C or 3C below climate averages. So in essence a cold and wintry outlook from the EC32 day for the 2nd half of the month.

A fascinating period of model watching ahead. Clearly we could either end up getting 'both barrels' and see some proper cold and snowy conditions as per recent GFS Det runs, or we end up with something far more timid and Atlantic driven. Both are possibilities, but before anyone asks, I'm going to stick my neck out and say I believe/feel that the colder option is the more likely outcome within the next 14 to 21 days, especially when you factor in a really noteworthy SSW event.

Regards to all, Matt.
Matthew Hugo BSc(Hons), FRMetS
Meteorologist
MetraWeather Ltd
On Twitter @MattHugo81

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Just something I want to put here for those that are following each run.

They are going to come up with a lot of different outcomes so don't get disheartened if one run doesn't show what you want, this will likely change !

It really is an interesting period, enjoying it a lot !

Rebelbrowser

"Regards to all, Matt.
Matthew Hugo BSc(Hons), FRMetS
Meteorologist
MetraWeather Ltd
On Twitter @MattHugo81"...

I'm always a bit suspicious of people who need to let us know they got, like nearly everybody else, "Hons" in their university degree. Generally means it came as a big surprise to them!

red_bairn

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

"Regards to all, Matt.
Matthew Hugo BSc(Hons), FRMetS
Meteorologist
MetraWeather Ltd
On Twitter @MattHugo81"...

I'm always a bit suspicious of people who need to let us know they got, like nearly everybody else, "Hons" in their university degree. Generally means it came as a big surprise to them!

I know the average person my age has a Masters as their main certificate...it's the experience that really matters tbh.

maquiladora

Models aren't great this morning, but thems are the ups and downs of model watching.

Worth pointing out that according to Ian Fergusson, the UK Met Office believe shannon entropy is at almost record highs, which means there is a very high level of unpredictability with the models right now.

pistolpetes11

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

"Regards to all, Matt.
Matthew Hugo BSc(Hons), FRMetS
Meteorologist
MetraWeather Ltd
On Twitter @MattHugo81"...

I'm always a bit suspicious of people who need to let us know they got, like nearly everybody else, "Hons" in their university degree. Generally means it came as a big surprise to them!

Suppose it shows he not just a hobbyist and his ideas can be taken with a bit more weight

weatherfiend

I'm sorry, I know it's miles out, but I just can't resist

maquiladora

06Z GFS delivers the goods again in FI. Some really extreme cold on offer there.

Iancar29

18z last night



06z this morning

MrDerp

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

"Regards to all, Matt.
Matthew Hugo BSc(Hons), FRMetS
Meteorologist
MetraWeather Ltd
On Twitter @MattHugo81"...

I'm always a bit suspicious of people who need to let us know they got, like nearly everybody else, "Hons" in their university degree. Generally means it came as a big surprise to them!

In certain science degrees, a pass degree can be obtained after year 3, i.e. someone can walk away at that point with a pass degree, with most staying on for the fourth year for further study towards an honours degree. It can therefore be about more than a grade.

howlinwolf

as i speak the rain has cleared and im now lookin at blue sky pushin in from the west. personally i dont really mind if it gets cool/cold/freezing over the next couple of weeks as long as we have come nice sunny blue sky crispness:)..... and maybe the odd snowy day just to be greedy:p

although i see met eireann are goin for the mild wet and windy muck for next week...please not another week of that crap:(

maquiladora

Way off in FI, but just beautiful to look at while it lasts.

If you're a fan of cold upper air you can't really ask for more than this.

-12 on the southwest Atlantic coast, -13 inland...and it's in low res so could even be colder than that.

Spindle

Good to see IanCar doing his snow dance Keep it up, and one of those FI runs will come true.

Iancar29

Spindle wrote: »

Good to see IanCar doing his snow dance Keep it up, and one of those FI runs will come true.

I'd dance all night to get that run to come true!

Just look at this heaveness





EDIT : Uh ohhhhh..... we all know what this type of breeze will lead too!

QUe Calibos....*

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Iancar29 wrote: »

EDIT : Uh ohhhhh..... we all know what this type of breeze will lead too!

Yeah, a thread about the IOM Shadow !!

maquiladora

06Z GFS op run was an outlier! Noooo, I can't believe it! :P:P

Tom Cruises Left Nut

maquiladora wrote: »

06Z GFS op run was an outlier! Noooo, I can't believe it! :P:P

ha ha, does kinda look like a 50 / 50 split though (this for around Naas)

maquiladora

t|nt|n wrote: »

ha ha, does kinda look like a 50 / 50 split though (this for around Naas)

The mean is actually getting colder towards the end of the run and the control was very cold too. A good few milder members there though, probably showing something like what the ECM does, with no high pressure to our northwest.

Just impossible to know what will happen. The 12Z GFS run could end up looking like one of those milder options, brace yourself. :P

maquiladora

Sounds like the UKMO have changed their opinion since last night on the 10-15 day period, they are leaning towards the ECM route. But uncertainty now at all time record high levels.

(Ian Fergusson)

In summary, UKMO latest goes for brief block; mostly dry & cold next week, followed into 10-15d period by increasing mobility with some rain-snow events from W, with heavy rain becoming more prevalent in SW as Atlantic comes more to the fore. However - and this is CRITICAL point - they stress Shannon entropy has now broken all previous records!! GFS solutions not mentioned in any analysis. Take from that they're leaning to EC but I do stress they acknowledge high state of model volatility, so it's a real poison chalice to be tasked with preparing any outlook summary so far ahead. Thus, major health warning on potential outcomes.