LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

Jaffusmaximus

I would not like to be an expert/pro weather guy right now! I can see a huge potential for egg on face or GLORY out there for those brave enough to call it for the next 2 weeks!

Spindle

t|nt|n wrote: »

Yeah, a thread about the IOM Shadow !!

And a lack of snow for Cork!

Larbre34

Can anyone explain Shannon entropy? Just when I thought I was getting my head around the various inputs!

Never mind, the wiki is fine, well it isnt fine actually, it gave me brain freeze but I see what theyre on about. I thought it was someone having a dig at our our westerly radar

Spindle

Larbre34 wrote: »

Can anyone explain Shannon entropy? Just when I thought I was getting my head around the various inputs!

Never mind, the wiki is fine, well it isnt fine actually, it gave me brain freeze but I see what theyre on about. I thought it was someone having a dig at our our westerly radar

From my maths and data modeling days, Shannon entropy is a measure of the unpredictability in a random variable.

So if they are saying it is high then basically it means the models haven't a handle on anything at all, as we know the slight change in a variable in a model can lead to huge changes downstream

That is why FI is so much fun today, -16 uppers over Ireland

red_bairn

Spindle wrote: »

That is why FI is so much fun today, -16 uppers over Ireland

Yipeeeeeeeeee! Get on the super slippery snow slide!

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

But uncertainty now at all time record high levels.

(Ian Fergusson)

I find that comment just a little bit silly TBH. He is talking about model output beyond 10 days, so how on earth can he quantify that?

Super hoop

So in layman terms....what the forecast lads??

Speak Now

Super hoop wrote: »

So in layman terms....what the forecast lads??

For when?

BEASTERLY

Jesus, did the GFS take a time machine back to Jan '47? UKMO backs the GFS at t144. As does the JMA.

Super hoop

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

For when?

The next 10-15 days.are we looking and another event similar to 2010?

Larbre34

http://www.independent.ie/weather/winter-returns-with-a-vengeance-as-dramatically-colder-weather-forecast-3346779.html

The forecast from the Daily Independenmailxpress will tell you everything you need to know

'Beast from the East'. FFS

maquiladora

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I find that comment just a little bit silly TBH. He is talking about model output beyond 10 days, so how on earth can he quantify that?

The UK Met Office have a software package called Decider, meant to give guidance for forecasters. Shannon Entropy is one of the graphs in the output.

Kippure

Spindle wrote: »

From my maths and data modeling days, Shannon entropy is a measure of the unpredictability in a random variable.

So if they are saying it is high then basically it means the models haven't a handle on anything at all, as we know the slight change in a variable in a model can lead to huge changes downstream

That is why FI is so much fun today, -16 uppers over Ireland

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Jaffusmaximus

Super hoop wrote: »

So in layman terms....what the forecast lads??

Colder than its been with a strong chance it may get even colder mid term then signals of being exceptionally cold later.

Basically dont put your winter clothes away just yet!

red_bairn

Larbre34 wrote: »

http://www.independent.ie/weather/winter-returns-with-a-vengeance-as-dramatically-colder-weather-forecast-3346779.html

The forecast from the Daily Independenmailxpress will tell you everything you need to know

'Beast from the East'. FFS

But the indications from the Met Office is that any relief will be short lived because colder conditions will prevail between January 21 and February 4, bringing the “risks of colder than average conditions and wintry weather”

Tbf, it's what MT wrote...so I guess they could be right about that bit

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Several mild days again but hints of a more intense cold spell to follow ... still thinking February might be "the" month but the wintry spell could arrive just before January ends.

Oarrack Bama

Currently it does not look likely an interim milder period of weather might occur although it is one option. The forecast overall remains the same. Increasingly cold from tomorrow right through to the end of the weekend at which point it's more likely to get colder but there is also a smaller chance of more normal Atlantic conditions returning. Basically we don't know what happens after the weekend but likelihood is colder conditions prevail. For the moment looking at the models I can only diverge from MT's forecast though that might change by tomorrow regarding next week.

leahyl

But is this cold weather for the country as a whole or just the East coast? Could it still be milder on the south coast?

Arrrrghh this is so frustrating!!

Spindle

red_bairn wrote: »

Tbf, it's what MT wrote...so I guess they could be right about that bit

Hmm, just at a guess, but I presume they just pulled all there info from online forums including this one.

On a side note we could pay the Germany Met service some money to name what hopefully will be our easterly the "Beast from the East" then at least it would be officially called that!

BMW did it last year, but they might have regretted the one they picked.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16852429

Oarrack Bama

leahyl wrote: »

But is this cold weather for the country as a whole or just the East coast? Could it still be milder on the south coast?

Arrrrghh this is so frustrating!!

No, it's countrywide. You will really notice the difference at night. The East will see the most of precipitation (but not exclusively) but that detail is not there yet. Give it another 24 hrs for a more accurate forecast on the models. I would expect some wintry precipitation near east coasts and in to the midlands on current output. But everywhere the main difference will be the return of frost or ice. It will feel notably different.

leahyl

Oarrack Bama wrote: »

No, it's countrywide. You will really notice the difference at night. The East will see the most of precipitation (but not exclusively) but that detail is not there yet. Give it another 24 hrs for a more accurate forecast on the models. I would expect some wintry precipitation near east coasts and in to the midlands on current output. But everywhere the main difference will be the return of frost or ice. It will feel notably different.

Ok Not exactly what I wanted to hear because as you may or may not know I am a snow ADDICT! :pac: But never mind - you'd never know what might happen!

maquiladora

leahyl wrote: »

But is this cold weather for the country as a whole or just the East coast? Could it still be milder on the south coast?

Arrrrghh this is so frustrating!!

It couldn't be more impossible to know right now.

I wouldn't worry about it. Could still easily end up with no cold at all!

SEPT 23 1989

maquiladora wrote: »

I wouldn't worry about it. Could still easily end up with no cold at all!

maquiladora

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

red card

Oarrack Bama

leahyl wrote: »

Not exactly what I wanted to hear because as you may or may not know I am a snow ADDICT!

Rebelbrowser

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I find that comment just a little bit silly TBH. He is talking about model output beyond 10 days, so how on earth can he quantify that?

I must say if I was in charge of the UK Met I'd be telling Ian F to stop these posts. He is making them look silly by broadcasting their internal private deliberations. Already in the last day he has basically let all NW forum users that the UK did a complete volte face overnight on what is going to happen. That makes them look foolish. We wouldn't have known this from their public output.

His posts are great for us bystanders mind you!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I must say if I was in charge of the UK Met I'd be telling Ian F to stop these posts. He is making them look silly by broadcasting their internal private deliberations. Already in the last day he has basically let all NW forum users that the UK did a complete volte face overnight on what is going to happen. That makes them look foolish. We wouldn't have known this from their public output.

His posts are great for us bystanders mind you!

He has permission from them though to do this !

red_bairn

maquiladora

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I must say if I was in charge of the UK Met I'd be telling Ian F to stop these posts. He is making them look silly by broadcasting their internal private deliberations. Already in the last day he has basically let all NW forum users that the UK did a complete volte face overnight on what is going to happen. That makes them look foolish. We wouldn't have known this from their public output.

His posts are great for us bystanders mind you!

All he is doing is relaying information that been given to help the likes of him inform the public about the forecast anyway. I don't see the harm in going into a bit more detail for an enthusiast forum. He has mentioned in posts several times about checking to see what he can and can't say anyway.

I think it's the computer models making humans looks silly more than anything at the moment.

BEASTERLY

After viewing this mornings ECM followed by GFS....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fwabpcnwR0

Rebelbrowser

t|nt|n wrote: »

He has permission from them though to do this !

I hadn't clicked that. If you are reading Ian, my apologies!