LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

Jaffusmaximus

maquiladora wrote: »

All he is doing is relaying information that been given to help the likes of him inform the public about the forecast anyway. I don't see the harm in going into a bit more detail for an enthusiast forum. He has mentioned in posts several times about checking to see what he can and can't say anyway.

I think it's the computer models making humans looks silly more than anything at the moment.

We would not be complaining if Jean Byrne was on here for some one to ones!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

We would not be complaining if Jean Byrne was on here for some one to ones!

Jaysus I got excited there :oD

Rebelbrowser

Separately, and I know I'm being hugely optimistic here, are we gone past the point where there could be model upgrades allowing that low that reaches us, and then slips south over us, on Saturday to have back edge snow arising from the incoming colder eastern air it meets? I know at present the model show temps way too high for this but given all of the uncertainty....?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Separately, and I know I'm being hugely optimistic here, are we gone past the point where there could be model upgrades allowing that low that reaches us, and then slips south over us, on Saturday to have back edge snow arising from the incoming colder eastern air it meets? I know at present the model show temps way too high for this but given all of the uncertainty....?

Keep the faith, as far as I know upgrades can happen in the very short term. I am sure others would have some examples

Jaffusmaximus

t|nt|n wrote: »

Jaysus I got excited there :oD

Jeans getting ready for the GFS 12z to begin rolling out!

pistolpetes11

Have not heard Dec 90 mentioned before ,

Have to say I am loving the insight from Ian Ferguson

The latter is the guidance I've been given (messy mix of rain, sleet, snow).
Incidentally - after an interesting conversation about where we may be heading, with my learned mentor this morning (!), he suggests take a look at Dec 1990 for what he considers a close analogy to what we have currently developing. He suggests I pull up the archives for this, but will do so when I get a moment.

Cheers
Ian

Tom Cruises Left Nut

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Have not heard Dec 90 mentioned before ,

Have to say I am loving the insight from Ian Ferguson

The latter is the guidance I've been given (messy mix of rain, sleet, snow).
Incidentally - after an interesting conversation about where we may be heading, with my learned mentor this morning (!), he suggests take a look at Dec 1990 for what he considers a close analogy to what we have currently developing. He suggests I pull up the archives for this, but will do so when I get a moment.

Cheers
Ian

Ok !

Rebelbrowser

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Have not heard Dec 90 mentioned before ,

Have to say I am loving the insight from Ian Ferguson

The latter is the guidance I've been given (messy mix of rain, sleet, snow).
Incidentally - after an interesting conversation about where we may be heading, with my learned mentor this morning (!), he suggests take a look at Dec 1990 for what he considers a close analogy to what we have currently developing. He suggests I pull up the archives for this, but will do so when I get a moment.

Cheers
Ian

Presumably he is referencing here the Feb 91 cold spell which must have been preceeded by similarly all over the shop model guidance in Dec '90 and Jan 91?

maquiladora

At 60 hours on the 12Z GFS that little low to our west is more intense. Wonder if that will make any difference later (for the weekend).

It's not much different at 84 hours though, so maybe not.

Oarrack Bama

Positive changes so far this run. Rain may turn to sleet on Saturday and synoptic features are that bit better.

A front straggling the east is under pressure from a cold east wind. One to watch.

maquiladora

Short term upgrade for the weekend on the 12Z GFS. Interesting.

Iancar29

My continuous mouse clicking seems to have worked this time round!

maquiladora

Chance of snow in the east/southeast Saturday night / Sunday morning on the 12Z GFS.

-8 uppers into the southeast.

MrFrisp

This is from M.E. today..

"Saturday: Cold and windy with just wintry showers.

There will be frost and icy patches Friday night and Saturday night but there is a possibility of cloudy, milder weather again moving in from the Atlantic during Sunday and Sunday night bringing temperatures back up to between 8 and 12 degrees for next week with some wet and windy spells likely."

.

maquiladora

And now for the main event...will the 12Z send high pressure to Greenland or not...

Oarrack Bama

maquiladora wrote: »

And now for the main event...will the 12Z send high pressure to Greenland or not...

132 is pretty good. Drift south on the jet. LP's to north coming south. Chances are this will be an over all upgrade to colder conditions.

BEASTERLY

maquiladora wrote: »

And now for the main event...will the 12Z send high pressure to Greenland or not...

Well it hasnt gone the way of the ECM at t144! Fingers crossed!

BEASTERLY

UKMO backs the GFS at t144. ECM on it's own? The two episodes seem to blending to one... i have a feeling something might be creeping up on us...

Oarrack Bama

EXCELLENT increasingly cold 12Z UKMO:) Enhanced prospect for some snow from the initial easterly 96 - 120hrs and 144hrs only going one way. Good stuff. I expect weathercheck to come out of hibernation any time now.

Jaffusmaximus

BEASTERLY wrote: »

UKMO backs the GFS at t144. ECM on it's own? The two episodes seem to blending to one... i have a feeling something might be creeping up on us...

Too many decent runs at this stage to ignore coming to one conclusion! Cold

maquiladora

Better ridging out to 168. Not sure yet if we will get a Greenland high or not in FI, it looks like it might be a toppler.... but it's been a good run up to FI anyway, and it hasn't followed the ECM which is important. And neither has the UKMO at 144.

ECM this evening will be very interesting.

Weathering

eeeeeeeek

leahyl

Very exciting stuff! Don't you just love it when this happens!:D

Oarrack Bama

Nippy.

BEASTERLY

The UK would do VERY well, -10 850hpa temps by 180 hours.

dacogawa

It's going to be warm & cloudy this weekend & then a heatwave around the 20th till March! every time I mention the 'S' word it does a runner east. So it's warm & cloudy Atlantic muck

Speak Now

Really really need the greenland high, in the short term we'll be on the wrong side of the battle ground this weekend. More importantly for our longer term prospects it's going to be a long 2 hours to see if the ECM drops the 0z idea :cool:

BEASTERLY

Uh oh... gone very wrong in FI! 850hpa temps dont reach -12. Ah well, next winter! :pac:

maquiladora

Another cracking FI on the 12Z GFS with huge potential.

Rebelbrowser

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rebelbrowser
Separately, and I know I'm being hugely optimistic here, are we gone past the point where there could be model upgrades allowing that low that reaches us, and then slips south over us, on Saturday to have back edge snow arising from the incoming colder eastern air it meets? I know at present the model show temps way too high for this but given all of the uncertainty....?

t|nt|n wrote: »

Keep the faith, as far as I know upgrades can happen in the very short term. I am sure others would have some examples

We is prophets I tells ya!