LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

leahyl

maquiladora

BEASTERLY wrote: »

The UK would do VERY well, -10 850hpa temps by 180 hours.

Indeed. England and even Wales could do very well from next weekend onward if that GFS run is right. We'd just have to be patient and hope that the block sets up in the right place to open the floodgates our way.

All eyes will be on the 12Z ECM.

Oarrack Bama

At this rate I would not be surprised if there was a real risk of snowfall here over the weekend. Only slight upgrades needed.

Slashermcguirk

I know snow of any kind would do but i tell you one thing i really miss..............THUNDERSNOW ! :eek:

leahyl

I remember these conversations from previous threads - it normally doesn't end well!!

BEASTERLY

maquiladora wrote: »

All eyes will be on the 12Z ECM.

I predict tears of joy steadily turning to tears of rage around 1830hrs tonight. Or champagne celebrations.

maquiladora

leahyl wrote: »

I remember these conversations from previous threads - it normally doesn't end well!!

red_bairn

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

I know snow of any kind would do but i tell you one thing i really miss..............THUNDERSNOW ! :eek:

DON'T JOKE!

esposito

BEASTERLY wrote: »

I predict tears of joy steadily turning to tears of rage around 1830hrs tonight. Or champagne celebrations.

Yep, no way ECM will agree with GFS and UKMO. Might as well prepare ourselves for a big disappointment

maquiladora

Oarrack Bama wrote: »

At this rate I would not be surprised if there was a real risk of snowfall here over the weekend. Only slight upgrades needed.

12Z GEM.




Could be interesting alright. Small changes between now and then will make a big difference.

Kippure

So this is what we,ll all be doing the weekend.......:eek::P



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Speak Now

Apart from deep FI and a brief flirtation with cold uppers on Satrday night/Sunday morning we're not exactly seeing any snowfall on the horizion just yet. The best part of the GFS and UKMO runs is the greenland high. Current runs look great for England/Wales, hopefully this blocking takes place and we should get our snow chance down the line

oterra

Its gone into Meltdown over on Net Weather!

Rebelbrowser

esposito wrote: »

Yep, no way ECM will agree with GFS and UKMO. Might as well prepare ourselves for a big disappointment

But do bear in mind Saturday isn't really FI, models should begin to agree.....

Oarrack Bama

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z GEM.




Could be interesting alright. Small changes between now and then will make a big difference.

I see that and I raise you the 12z GFS ensemble mean for Saturday night



Getting colder bit by bit.

BEASTERLY

Special RTE news report on the cold!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5l3oUUUzOxE

BEASTERLY

Oarrack Bama wrote: »

I see that and I raise you the 12z GFS ensemble mean for Saturday night

That isnt the ensemble mean. Its the control run.

Fixed

delw

Guys what would you regard as reliable time frame given the models at the moment 96/72 hrs or less

Oarrack Bama

BEASTERLY wrote: »

That isnt the ensemble mean. Its the control run.

Sorry posted the control beforehand by accident.

maquiladora

Uh....control run not looking good for blocking. Different fron the op.

BLIZZARD7

delw wrote: »

Guys what would you regard as reliable time frame given the models at the moment 96/72 hrs or less

Based on past failed easterlys- id say +72hrs. But if all models agree +96hrs with a small pinch of salt.

Absolutely stunning charts today! Expecting/hoping ECM to fall into line on the 12z.





Dan

BEASTERLY

maquiladora wrote: »

Uh....control run not looking good for blocking. Different fron the op.

What is the control run? How is it different from the other members of the GEFS?

maquiladora

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Whats is the control run? How is different from the other members of the GEFS?

It starts with the same conditions as the op but run at the same (lower) resolution as the other ensemble members.

DominoDub

200 people in the Forum now ...boards will crash again if it does Snow

Trogdor

Most of the GEFS members have the upper temperatures dipping down to about -7C/-8C at least in the East by Sunday now

cherryghost

Would personally leave it til Thursday night at the earliest before anything could possibly be set in stone (or snow for this matter). Been reluctant to comment on anything over the last few days but whatever the outcome short term, it is looking positive in the long term.

delw

Trogdor wrote: »

Most of the GEFS members have the upper temperatures dipping down to about -7C/-8C at least in the East by Sunday now

With between 45% & 60% chance of snow on 13th/14th

maquiladora

Really don't like the look of the ensembles & control, with regard to the longer term, they look to be leaning towards the ECM. That op run may have trolled us.

Oarrack Bama

maquiladora wrote: »

Really don't like the look of the ensembles & control, with regard to the longer term, they look to be leaning towards the ECM. That op run may have trolled us.

The UKMO gives broad support. The outlook has gone more in favour of colder conditions overall this evening. ECM is a big one tonight - we really need to see a change there.

Rebelbrowser

maquiladora wrote: »

Really don't like the look of the ensembles & control, with regard to the longer term, they look to be leaning towards the ECM. That op run may have trolled us.

I'd say focus on this weekend and don't worry about far FI with all that is happening.