LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

maquiladora

Best model rollercoaster in ages.

ECM has gone from being the killer of cold to now being the best cold/snow chart today at 168 hours.

You couldn't make it up. :pac:

I am still worried by the GFS ensembles though, but I'm just going to enjoy the ECM backtrack for now.

weatherfiend

Oarrack Bama wrote: »

Increasingly likely. Anyone who wants cold and snow it's looking very good for you guys!

Does that mean you don't want snow?????!!!? How could you not?

BEASTERLY

maquiladora wrote: »

Best model rollercoaster in ages.

ECM has gone from being the killer of cold to now being the best cold/snow chart today at 168 hours.

You couldn't make it up. :pac:

I am still worried by the GFS ensembles though, but I'm just going to enjoy the ECM backtrack for now.

Ensembles missing what the high res runs are picking out? ITs worth remembering then GEFS ensembles have a top of 5hpa, high res go to 0.01hpa. This SSW is a top down event so maybe the answer lies there?

Rougies

Good model runs today and a cracker of an ECM this evening. But I'm not getting sucked in just yet. Remember what happened last time!? Although this time around it makes more sense and is more likely to deliver. ECM ensembles will be important. Proceed with optimism and caution

Tom Cruises Left Nut

maquiladora wrote: »

Best model rollercoaster in ages.

ECM has gone from being the killer of cold to now being the best cold/snow chart today at 168 hours.

You couldn't make it up. :pac:

I am still worried by the GFS ensembles though, but I'm just going to enjoy the ECM backtrack for now.

The ensembles for Dublin to Saturday look fine ? It wouldn't be like you to worry about anything further out Maq ! :pac:

maquiladora

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Ensembles missing what the high res runs are picking out? ITs worth remembering then GEFS ensembles have a top of 5hpa, high res go to 0.01hpa. This SSW is a top down event so maybe the answer lies there?

I don't think thats the case. The ensembles were split before now with a good few showing blocking to our northwest but they almost all backed away from that idea on the 12Z.

ECM backtracking is more important though!

leahyl

Gerry on RTE still talking about it returning to a westerly flow next week...!

Shiny

Iancar29

Gerry CLEARLY didn't receive my last minute fax...

Oarrack Bama

leahyl wrote: »

Gerry on RTE still talking about it returning to a westerly flow next week...!

He is reading the charts upside down, that's all.

dexter647

leahyl wrote: »

Gerry on RTE still talking about it returning to a westerly flow next week...!

Poor old Gerry is going off the oz this morning me thinks...Wait till he sees the 12z:D:D:D

maquiladora

t|nt|n wrote: »

The ensembles for Dublin to Saturday look fine ? It wouldn't be like you to worry about anything further out Maq ! :pac:

I'm not as worried now after that fantastic ECM turnaround. Still a little concerned but it's really the only downside on the 12Z models, everything else has been great.

The rollercoaster thunders on!

Oarrack Bama

maquiladora wrote: »

I'm not as worried now after that fantastic ECM turnaround. Still a little concerned but it's really the only downside on the 12Z models, everything else has been great.

The rollercoaster thunders on!

This is at 96 hrs




:cool:

pistolpetes11

Id love to hear MT's thoughts on whats going on ,

This could all collapse the next run but there is now model agreement

pistolpetes11

maquiladora wrote: »

Best model rollercoaster in ages.

ECM has gone from being the killer of cold to now being the best cold/snow chart today at 168 hours.

You couldn't make it up. :pac:

I am still worried by the GFS ensembles though, but I'm just going to enjoy the ECM backtrack for now.

Have to say , your analysis has been top notch on this rollercoaster so far be it cold or mild !

I was not getting excited yesterday or even this morning but I can feel its building up inside me now ,

Can wait for the 18z now , I need another fix !

Oarrack Bama

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

This could all collapse the next run but there is now model agreement

Is that an oxymoron

maquiladora

Oarrack Bama wrote: »

This is at 96 hrs




:cool:

Oh I've no problem with the ensembles for the weekend.

Only -2 / -4 uppers at 96hr for us there though, I don't think we'd see snow at low levels in Ireland with that. Colder stuff on the way though!

steveLFC24

The main thing for me is that the big three models are all on board now to some extent. I'm not sure this was the case at any time in December, seemed to always be 2 v 1 one way or the other (could be wrong, but that's what I vaguely remember). Of course, the finer details need to be ironed out, but we're in with a decent chance of some nice cold weather (and snowy). Just hope the proper cold can make its way this far over. Either way, gona wait til about Thursday before I start getting TOOOOOOOOOOOOOO excited

Oarrack Bama

maquiladora wrote: »

Oh I've no problem with the ensembles for the weekend.

Only -2 / -4 uppers at 96hr for us there though, I don't think we'd see snow at low levels in Ireland with that. Colder stuff on the way though!

By Sunday risk of some snow on current charts mostly in the East. What I mean is 96 hrs already verifies the southerly tracking jet stream over us. From then on there is only one outcome. Be delighted if the 18z shows exactly the same.

The cooling trend actually starts from tomorrow. Temperatures don't look like looking back for quite a while atm.

pistolpetes11

Oarrack Bama wrote: »

Is that an oxymoron

Was trying to be sensible , but feck it , Il even have them put in my IMAP server for my mails from work tomorrow cause I wont be able to get through the snow when this lands :eek:

steveLFC24

I can just imagine everybodys reaction tomorrow when they're flicking though the model output's.



TENSION!!!!

mickger844posts

We really need the 0Z ECM run similar to the 12z and then its time to get excited.

Oarrack Bama

Looks like UKMO ensembles have flipped. Odds on now:)

Met Office Ensemble (MOGREPS) showing solid agreement for below average temps and snowfall from this weekend onwards

Weathering

Oarrack Bama wrote: »

Looks like UKMO ensembles have flipped. Odds on now:)

Chris Fawkes just tweeted "Still uncertainty in forecast detail but it is quite possible for parts of UK to get snow Sunday and early next week....."

"Models having different ideas about trough disruption in Atlantic Thursday, this crucial to low development ripping cold air from Europe."

"EC deterministic runs seems to have most realistic initialisation north Norway, another important area for getting weather details right."

We all deserve some snow. My eyes are sore looking at greenfields

maquiladora

12Z ECM ensembles coming up shortly. Then the 18Z GFS, and those ensembles.

After that...maybe a few cups of coffee and the 0Z GFS/UKMO? :P

Weathering

I just tweeted him asking him about northern Ireland chance of seeing snow..(he mightn't answer for the Republic) His respose

"you want ec deterministic model to be right! If it was right you'd get some Monday.....confidence not great yet"

Weathering

12Z EC ENS now on board. EC clusters definitely more grouped around the blocking pattern. Hence EC ENS support the UKMO, GFS, ECM Det models

Jaffusmaximus

This has been the best week I can remember for model watching!

[IMG][/img]




Makes me feel so warm inside!

maquiladora

John.Icy

Some great output today!

Worrying gfs ensembles though, completely out of kilter with the op as early as saturday(many ensembles are much more snow friendly for the weekend!).

If gfs ensembles start properly clustering cold, then maybe, just maybe will I start to believe.