LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

maquiladora

John.Icy wrote: »

Some great output today!

Worrying gfs ensembles though, completely out of kilter with the op as early as saturday(many ensembles are much more snow friendly for the weekend!).

If gfs ensembles start properly clustering cold, then maybe, just maybe will I start to believe.

The good news is the ECM ensembles are much better though. And according to that tweet the MOGREPS are good too.

Things are now mostly looking good at the moment overall.

cotton

Have been watching in excitement from the start but have had one foot firmly on the platform in case of disappointment. About to put 2 feet onboard & wait for the express to start chugging. :D

Deep Easterly

A quick look at the ECMWF Ensemble mean run and not much change from 00z. Ridging only slightly further west with Ireland more often than not under slack ridge or cool col like conditions throughout. It is only at day 10 does it show anything of interest with a deepening trough over Scandinavia.

maquiladora

Is Weathercheck not posting because he is afraid of jinxing it? :P

I know he is lurking. :pac:

pauldry

Don't think it will get as cold as 2010 at all but a few snowy days for sure. I do think it will be milder than what models suggest

Snowaddict

Deep Easterly wrote: »

A quick look at the ECMWF Ensemble mean run and not much change from 00z. Ridging only slightly further west with Ireland more often than not under slack ridge or cool col like conditions throughout. It is only at day 10 does it show anything of interest with a deepening trough over Scandinavia.

DE,

I disagree. If we look at the T+120 range exclusively and ignore any output beyond this, then there is now a relatively strong signal for a cold upper air pattern becoming established across the country @T+96 - T+120, a signal that has intensified when compared with the 00Z suite.

Again, this is all subject to significant change at this range, but I feel this to be a modest improvement on the 00Z suite.

SA

Rougies

maquiladora wrote: »

Is Weathercheck not posting because he is afraid of jinxing it? :P

I know he is lurking. :pac:

He's here alright

Weathercheck wrote: »

Only seeing the ECM OP now/

But WOW

maquiladora

Deep Easterly wrote: »

A quick look at the ECMWF Ensemble mean run and not much change from 00z. Ridging only slightly further west with Ireland more often than not under slack ridge or cool col like conditions throughout. It is only at day 10 does it show anything of interest with a deepening trough over Scandinavia.

Ah come on now. :P How about day 7.

0Z. Mild southwesterlies pouring in on the 15th.




12Z -8 uppers over the country in an easterly airflow with blocking to the northwest on the 15th.

lucy2010

Taking the kids to Disney Jan 18th . I know it's far out but should I be concerned regarding flights and also the weather in paris ? Double book the travel insurance just in case ???

icesnowfrost

Met e still going with milder conditions from Saturday and Sunday

maquiladora

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Met e still going with milder conditions from Saturday and Sunday

That won't update until late tonight / tomorrow morning.

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

Ah come on now. :P How about day 7.

I was talking about the En means I should have stated that in first edit.

SA, good to see you back!

pistolpetes11

lucy2010 wrote: »

Taking the kids to Disney Jan 18th . I know it's far out but should I be concerned regarding flights and also the weather in paris ? Double book the travel insurance just in case ???

No at all at the moment ,

Check around the 14/15th

I would not be worrying now

Weathering

There hasn't been this much traffic on weather boards since Su Campu said it was going to SNOW!!!!!

Slashermcguirk

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Met e still going with milder conditions from Saturday and Sunday

Met eireann are quite frequently wrong in fairness. I have nearly canceled many a weekend down the country based on forecasts from them only to enjoy great weather. They also said in early december 2012 that snow was expected and it didn't snow at all. If they say mild weather, I wouldnt rule out snow!

maquiladora

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I was talking about the En means I should have stated that in first edit.

Ah right. I'm just happy that the ECM ens are better than the GEFS.

Oarrack Bama

maquiladora wrote: »

That won't update until late tonight / tomorrow morning.

12 am forecast - RTE radio

nacho libre

Snowaddict wrote: »

DE,

I disagree. If we look at the T+120 range exclusively and ignore any output beyond this, then there is now a relatively strong signal for a cold upper air pattern becoming established across the country @T+96 - T+120, a signal that has intensified when compared with the 00Z suite.

Again, this is all subject to significant change at this range, but I feel this to be a modest improvement on the 00Z suite.

SA

welcome back snowaddict. are you concerned about the gfs ensembles?

whitebriar

The 00z ecm gfs etc will call a halt to this Cold bias, ending our excitement.
Expect this.
Its a hunch,but I expect it.

Edit.jebus! Welcome back snow addict :-)

Snowaddict

nacho libre wrote: »

welcome back snowaddict. are you concerned about the gfs ensembles?

Thanks Nacho,

Yes - I think we cannot have very high confidence in a cold outlook presently, certainly until we have cross model Operational and Ensemble agreement.

However, I would say that we are seeing the greatest cross model continuity seen to date with regard to this potential cold outbreak as of tonight.

We are still some way from saying with any certainty that a (deep) cold spell will arrive.

SA

nerrad1983

What time does the next run get released at???

pistolpetes11

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Met eireann are quite frequently wrong in fairness. I have nearly canceled many a weekend down the country based on forecasts from them only to enjoy great weather. They also said in early december 2012 that snow was expected and it didn't snow at all. If they say mild weather, I wouldnt rule out snow!

Dont mention the war , lots of us got caught on that , its the nature of the beast really ,


UK met got caught out too

Weathering

whitebriar wrote: »

The 00z ecm gfs etc will call a halt to this Cold bias, ending our excitement.
Expect this.
Its a hunch,but I expect it.

Don't be so pessimistic

maquiladora

nerrad1983 wrote: »

What time does the next run get released at???

18Z GFS starts in 3 mins.

cotton

Can I just say welcome back to Snowaddict, it's great to see you back here again.:)

Speak Now

cotton wrote: »

Can I just say welcome back to Snowaddict, it's great to see you back here again.:)

Gerry ramping big time, he said the word sleet :-)

derekon

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Met e still going with milder conditions from Saturday and Sunday

Well Gerry has just changed his tune from the 6.55pm forecast when he said it would get milder next week. Now on the 9.25pm forecast he is saying that it could remain very cold into next week...........wonder if he had a look at the 12z ECM?

D

Snowaddict

cotton wrote: »

Can I just say welcome back to Snowaddict, it's great to see you back here again.:)

Thanks Cotton!

A very reasonable forecast from Met Eireann just now - taking a cautious but prudent approach to the potential cold outlook.

Whatever actually verifies, we should remember that it's quite difficult for ME given the absolute uncertainty right now and in terms of what they call for the medium term outlook.

SA

delw

GFS starting to roll out,hope every one is buckled in

Eastcoastryan

whitebriar wrote: »

The 00z ecm gfs etc will call a halt to this Cold bias, ending our excitement.
Expect this.
Its a hunch,but I expect it.

Edit.jebus! Welcome back snow addict :-)

I see you are using reverse psychology.. I like that!

I have a hunch we might see something over the weekend and into next week, I've even recorded a Radio Promo for Winter Weather Updates that will play on East Coast.. Just incase we need it! :P