LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

maquiladora

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Given the easterly influence what 850 hpa temps do we need for snow? I'm talking in particular here about this weekend. If you believe the GFS precipitation charts (I generally don't) it'll be a snow event (and in fact will snow for the next 10 days afterwards!).

Any thoughts? Will -6's do it?

It's not just uppers, you'd want dew point temps 0 or below too.

Rebelbrowser

maquiladora wrote: »

It's not just uppers, you'd want dew point temps 0 or below too.

Thanks Maq. Any thoughts on how we are looking on that front or are we too far out still to see such things?

lucy2010

Maq - could I get a link to DP charts - gone rusty since Dec 10 !! Coming bak out of retirement

BEASTERLY

Control....... ohh balls!

dacogawa

maquiladora wrote: »

Even Tardar sauce approves!

whitebriar

You'd want -8 c 850 temps and lower in this flow for sea level snow.
Dp's coming from that source are likely to be OK.

At the height of the Nov Dec 2010 spell,we had sea level snow at times,with 850 temps of -2 iirc but that was because the longevity of it and the snow cover gave us our own surface cold pool,so no layer of the atmosphere from 5000ft to sea level was warm enough to turn it to rain.

maquiladora

18Z GFS control run once again doesn't support the op and at first glance the mean is even worse than the 12Z. ffs.... :rolleyes:

maquiladora

lucy2010 wrote: »

Maq - could I get a link to DP charts - gone rusty since Dec 10 !! Coming bak out of retirement

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=taup&HH=0&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

pistolpetes11

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z GFS control run once again doesn't support the op and at first glance the mean is even worse than the 12Z. ffs.... :rolleyes:

Another cold outlier ?

This actually has me miffed , the ECM ens gave good support on its run ?

halkar

What is all this mean in plain English?:D

Shiny

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z GFS control run once again doesn't support the op and at first glance the mean is even worse than the 12Z. ffs.... :rolleyes:

oterra

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z GFS control run once again doesn't support the op and at first glance the mean is even worse than the 12Z. ffs.... :rolleyes:

Whats the difference between the Operational and control runs??

BEASTERLY

Very very little ensemble support. Lets hope the low res isnt handling that energy coming through southern greenland at 130 hours.

rickdangerouss

Netweather is back up. tons of people.

sunbabe08

it's alive, ALIVE ALIVE :D:D

maquiladora

oterra wrote: »

Whats the difference between the Operational and control runs??

Same data but run at a lower resolution, same resolution as the other ensemble members. Seems that it might be a feature only modelled correctly in the higher resolution that leads to us getting the desired blocking. Thats just a guess though. But it doesn't really explain then why the ensembles were looking better for blocking before the 12Z.

BEASTERLY

oterra wrote: »

Whats the difference between the Operational and control runs??

I learned this earlier! The control is run at a lower resolution that the op with the same input data. The order 20 members are all lower resolution but with altered input data.

BEASTERLY

maquiladora wrote: »

Same data but run at a lower resolution, same resolution as the other ensemble members. Seems that it might be a feature only modelled correctly in the higher resolution that leads to us getting the desired blocking. Thats just a guess though. But it doesn't really explain then why the ensembles were looking better for blocking before the 12Z.

Any why do the ECM ens support the op. It is strange that there is so much cross model support but the GEFS is doing what it is.

eskimocat

I knew I should have gone to bed a couple of posts ago before someone came up with a down ramp!!! DRAT DRAT !and DOUBLE DRAT!!!!

Rougies

BEASTERLY wrote: »

I learned this earlier! The control is run at a lower resolution that the op with the same input data. The order 20 members are all lower resolution but with altered input data.

I learned about it earlier too Nothing like a day like today to force education.

This is what I found in regards the ECM ensembles/control run.
http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

maquiladora

Actually, further into FI and the ensembles are now actually a bit better than on the 12Z for blocking.

eskimocat

maquiladora wrote: »

Actually, further into FI and the ensembles are now actually a bit better than on the 12Z for blocking.

Is that you trying to give me something to cling to so that I don't have nightmares about wet manky rainy weather heading our way instead of snow????

maquiladora

eskimocat wrote: »

Is that you trying to give me something to cling to so that I don't have nightmares about wet manky rainy weather heading our way instead of snow????

Hah, only a small bit better, not much difference really.

But I just saw someone saying this in NW, I don't know if its true or not but if it is it might explain things.

The ecm ens are at a higher resolution and they are on message.

BEASTERLY

maquiladora wrote: »

Actually, further into FI and the ensembles are now actually a bit better than on the 12Z for blocking.

Panic waned a bit now. Phewww

Rebelbrowser

maquiladora wrote: »

It's not just uppers, you'd want dew point temps 0 or below too.

Dew points are fine on Sunday, and the 528 dam line is just about ok for most (in the absence of Su Campu someone needs to mention this - I draw the line at theta whatchamacallit measurements though).

Snow this weekend please!

eskimocat

Had this playing in the back ground for the past couple of mins... it seemed to be appropriate!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=abZlWqVeLzg

Oarrack Bama

Let's not get carried a way. Still risks in the evolution. Fingers crossed. Night.

pad199207

Oarrack Bama wrote: »

Let's not get carried a way. Still risks in the evolution. Fingers crossed. Night.

At this stage I think your a bit late saying that bud!

Im one of these infrequent visitors to here save for the times when snow is a possibility.

I really have no clue what the charts mean or even the explanations of said charts.

Can anyone in the know please explain?

Is it going to snow this weekend? Or soon?

Thanks

eskimocat

This one might be more appropriate so!!:D

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_F2ZJ6LHsg