LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

maquiladora

Oarrack Bama wrote: »

Let's not get carried a way. Still risks in the evolution. Fingers crossed. Night.

Absolutely. I know this is the ramp thread but it has to be said that there's still more than enough time for this all to go wrong or end up being much more watered down than anything these runs are showing.

Just enjoy the entertainment provided by the models at the moment. Don't get too hyped about anything really signficiant actually happening just yet.

Blizzard 2010

TheTorment wrote: »

Im one of these infrequent visitors to here save for the times when snow is a possibility.

I really have no clue what the charts mean or even the explanations of said charts.

Can anyone in the know please explain?

Is it going to snow this weekend? Or soon?

Thanks

We may have snow showers on sunday and indeed next week if these charts verify. We would have sub-zero temperatures with regular snow affecting the eastern and northern seaboard

Fuh Q

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

We may have snow showers on sunday and indeed next week if these charts verify. We would have sub-zero temperatures with regular snow affecting the eastern and northern seaboard

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=10day;sess=

Have a look at the link below and run it to Saturday 19/1
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=snow;sess=

Kippure

Fuh Q wrote: »

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=10day;sess=

Have a look at the link below and run it to Saturday 19/1
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=snow;sess=

Holy Jebus Christ :eek:

maquiladora

Fuh Q wrote: »

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=10day;sess=

Have a look at the link below and run it to Saturday 19/1
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=snow;sess=

Tbh, you'd be better off not looking at any of those 'snow forecast' charts. They are kinda useless apart from a rough guide about 24 hours out.

AloKildare

Nice update from ME:

The weekend looks like it will be chilly, the lowest values, probably in the low single figures, will in the East with Easterly or Northeasterly breezes. There will be a good deal of dry weather with some wintry sunshine but some showers also, these turning increasingly to sleet and snow especially on Sunday. Nights will be frosty with fog and ice.

At the moment Sunday night and the early days of next week brings the threat of more significant snow to places and it will feel very cold with the winds strengthening.

Blizzard 2010

Fuh Q wrote: »

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=10day;sess=

Have a look at the link below and run it to Saturday 19/1
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=snow;sess=

Thank you for that. Moisture from a warm Irish Sea would give us frequent snow showers

Fuh Q

maquiladora wrote: »

Tbh, you'd be better off not looking at any of those 'snow forecast' charts. They are kinda useless apart from a rough guide about 24 hours out.

True, might keep the giddy snow hunters happy for a while.....
Its showing 100% for central UK next Tuesday.

Harry Deerpark

On the right of this chart there's a bar that goes up in 5s, what does it measure?

Fuh Q

Harry Deerpark wrote: »

On the right of this chart there's a bar that goes up in 5s, what does it measure?

The risk of snow (percentage) using the colour scale

maquiladora

Well, it looks like Met Eireann have seen the 12Z ECM alright.

Now remember, before you get excited, this is all just based on what the model is showing now - that could change a lot!

The weekend looks like it will be chilly, the lowest values, probably in the low single figures, will in the East with Easterly or Northeasterly breezes. There will be a good deal of dry weather with some wintry sunshine but some showers also, these turning increasingly to sleet and snow especially on Sunday. Nights will be frosty with fog and ice.

At the moment Sunday night and the early days of next week brings the threat of more significant snow to places and it will feel very cold with the winds strengthening.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

leahyl

"to places" which means east/southeast coast....!!

barney 20v

leahyl wrote: »

"to places" which means east/southeast coast....!!

Good enough for me!

delw

maquiladora wrote: »

Well, it looks like Met Eireann have seen the 12Z ECM alright.

Now remember, before you get excited, this is all just based on what the model is showing now - that could change a lot!

I wonder why they even mention next week with the uncertainty with the models at the moment

maquiladora

delw wrote: »

I wonder why they even mention next week with the uncertainty with the models at the moment

They do say "at the moment" though. I don't think they've ever shortened an outlook due to uncertainty. It also gives people a heads up just in case it does happen because you can be sure a lot of people that don't read the weather forum or check the models haven't a clue that something like this could be around the corner.

Rebelbrowser

delw wrote: »

I wonder why they even mention next week with the uncertainty with the models at the moment

Because Gerry had popped out for 5 mins and someone saw their opportunity.

BEASTERLY

Shouldnt have read that ME update, will never get to sleep now! :P

maquiladora

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Shouldnt have read that ME update, will never get to sleep now! :P

Sure ya might as well stay up for the 0Z GFS now.

Super hoop

maquiladora wrote: »

Sure ya might as well stay up for the 0Z GFS now.

Whens that happening?

BLIZZARD7

Super hoop wrote: »

Whens that happening?

3.30am.



Dan

delw

Super hoop wrote: »

Whens that happening?

Starts rolling out about 3-30am i think

Weathering

www.weatheronline.co.uk is always quick for 0Z GFS

pauldry

Snow yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

However I am cautious about the winds. Sometimes those darned Easterlies bring rain even when its 0c. Sea and all that. Would prefer a Noreaster or even Southeast would bring dry snow so Ill be keeping an eye on the wind if thats humanly possible.

Whatever happens if this event comes off I will be posting videos to my website coz it dont happen darned often enough.

Saganist

If this comes off how important will sea surface temps be ? i.e. Will the -8 uppers coming over us so quickly cancel out the probable higher temps at surface level, or could it make for really strong lake effect conditions ? Sorry for the stupid question.

maquiladora

Saganist wrote: »

If this comes off how important will sea surface temps be ? i.e. Will the -8 uppers coming over us so quickly cancel out the probable higher temps at surface level, or could it make for really strong lake effect conditions ? Sorry for the stupid question.

I was looking back at the thread for Dec 17th 2009 the other day. Based on the comments there and comparing them to the archives, streamers started to turn from hail/sleet to snow in the afternoon just before the uppers were forecast to reach -7.

Not sure what the SSTs were then though compared to now. And of course it wasn't the exact same situation then as what this weekend could be like, but it might be some sort of use for comparison.

dacogawa

To my untrained eye this looks even better than before! what do the people in the know think ?

Trogdor

dacogawa wrote: »

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013010900/gfs-1-102.png?0

To my untrained eye this looks even better than before! (even if it's the pub run) what do the people in the know think ?

Yep, another upgrade for Ireland in the short term there. It delays the cold by a few hours but gives us a slightly more direct hit. That would have some snow showers pushing onto the East coast through Sunday. There are still very noticeable changes from run to run though so i wouldn't take it with much certainty yet.

Ps it's the 18z that's usually known as the pub run

maquiladora

An upgrade in the short term but this isn't looking good at all...

Those GFS ensembles that we feared....it looks like they sniffed out the trend.

dacogawa

Thanks for the info Trogdor, Ps. double thanks, that's what the edit button is for

Weathering

If one run can cause so much devastation
What is the point of looking at any ha
Netweather ain't too rosy at the minute