LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

maquiladora

Weathering wrote: »

If one run can cause so much devastation
What is the point of looking at any ha
Netweather ain't too rosy at the minute

It's not just one run though, the control and majority of the ensembles have been showing something like this since the 12Z. It's exactly what we've been fearing since then.

UKMO doesn't look as good either.

I fear for the ECM in the morning...

Weathering

maquiladora wrote: »

It's not just one run though, the control and majority of the ensembles have been showing something like this since the 12Z. It's exactly what we've been fearing since then.

UKMO doesn't look as good either.

I fear for the ECM in the morning...

Okay granted. So the optimism from everyone earlier was misplaced if "majority of the ensembles have been showing something like this since the 12Z."

Upgrades for the short term,at least it's something. I'm sure most of us would just take a day of snow at this rate

Oarrack Bama

maquiladora wrote: »

UKMO doesn't look as good either.

GFS definite downgrade medium term. UKMO is better though. 144 hrs is actually good. There are prospects there. It just underlines the uncertainty and we should be very cautious beyond the weekend.

BLIZZARD7

maquiladora wrote: »

It's not just one run though, the control and majority of the ensembles have been showing something like this since the 12Z. It's exactly what we've been fearing since then.

UKMO doesn't look as good either.

I fear for the ECM in the morning...

Tbh its very small differences on a NH scale that are making huge differences over Ireland, I think the op runs are more important than the ensembles at the moment. GFS goes into default mode in FI.

UKMO looks perfectly fine to me and is definitely better than the GFS with much better ridging into Greenland.

Short term upgrade for the weekend and a downgrade in FI is how I would sum up the GFS- not too much to be worried about...yet.




Dan

Weathering

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Tbh its very small differences on a NH scale that are making huge differences over Ireland, I think the op runs are more important than the ensembles at the moment. GFS goes into default mode in FI.

UKMO looks perfectly fine to me and is definitely better than the GFS with much better ridging into Greenland.

Short term upgrade for the weekend and a downgrade in FI is how I would sum up the GFS- not too much to be worried about...yet.




Dan

It'll be different in the morning,shift again in the evening and once again tomorrow night. As one of the moderators pointed out earlier there is no real point analysis the charts with much confidence until Thursday evening

I believe he/she is the wisest of all

Oarrack Bama

GEM will cheer you up

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php

Usually not far from the ECM


GFS - Poor
UKMO - Good
GEM - Good

Hope ECM is better and the 6z GFS

BLIZZARD7

Yet another option on the gem this morning- it really lives up to its name with brilliant heights building towards greenland at +120hrs.




Dan

maquiladora

Oarrack Bama wrote: »

GEM will cheer you up

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php

Usually not far from the ECM


GFS - Poor
UKMO - Good
GEM - Good

Hope ECM is better and the 6z GFS

I'm not saying it's game over just yet but its very worrying to see the GFS op run replicate what the control and ensembles were trending to since the 12Z. UKMO is not very reliable at 144. GEM looks good but you'd feel that if there is a trend being picked up it would be from the GFS or ECM.

Also, running out of time for backtracking with the point where this does or doesn't happening being about 100 hours or less now.

I suppose I'll have to stay awake for the ECM now. :rolleyes::P

BLIZZARD7

Typical...GEFS are a good bit colder than the 18z...






Dan

force eleven

Typical of model watching this winter. You go out to the shed to get your sled ready, come back in to check the next GFS run. And promptly put it back in storage. Roller bloody coaster indeed. Still, it's all still FI after 4 days.

maquiladora

0Z ECM looks like it will keep hopes alive.... Out to 120 now.

After 120....not as good as GEM, though not as bad as the GFS. Blocking not as strong.

All major models different after the weekend again!

Time to sleep!

derekon

OK major divergence on the 0z models this morning - the 0z ECM (used by Met Eireann) has -8 uppers over the east coast from Sunday through to the following Saturday.

However, the 0z GFS only has -8 uppers skirting the east coast for Sunday and Monday and then its back to Atlantic muck.

Is this thing on the cusp of going tits up? :mad:

D

Rebelbrowser

derekon wrote: »

OK major divergence on the 0z models this morning - the 0z ECM (used by Met Eireann) has -8 uppers over the east coast from Sunday through to the following Saturday.

However, the 0z GFS only has -8 uppers skirting the east coast for Sunday and Monday and then its back to Atlantic muck.

Is this thing on the cusp of going tits up? :mad:

D

Lads there is basically snow forecast for much of the country for 4 days time accordingly to all the models. I consider a winter with 1 day of snow a success. Any further snow after that will be a bonus. Moreover its a bonus which on balance is likely to come fto pass so all in all I am v happy withhow things stand this morning.

oterra

derekon wrote: »

OK major divergence on the 0z models this morning - the 0z ECM (used by Met Eireann) has -8 uppers over the east coast from Sunday through to the following Saturday.

However, the 0z GFS only has -8 uppers skirting the east coast for Sunday and Monday and then its back to Atlantic muck.

Is this thing on the cusp of going tits up? :mad:

D

Ecm looks great into F1. Why the back track from Gfs????

Jaffusmaximus

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Lads there is basically snow forecast for much of the country for 4 days time accordingly to all the models. I consider a winter with 1 day of snow a success. Any further snow after that will be a bonus. Moreover its a bonus which on balance is likely to come fto pass so all in all I am v happy withhow things stand this morning.

Different people with different expectations. Anyway the gfs has caught many out by banking on it when it has been showing mild a few times this winter only for it to swing the other way a run later. It will change again.

Larbre34

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

Different people with different expectations. Anyway the gfs has caught many out by banking on it when it has been showing mild a few times this winter only for it to swing the other way a run later. It will change again.

Well Carol on BBC Breakfast weather says snow showers for UK east coasts on Sunday, but not enough to make a snow man. For that reason and my previous short term feelings I dont think we'll see anything remarkable for a week or perhaps two, if at all. Yes the trend is our friend but the Atlantic is our master

Slashermcguirk

Larbre34 wrote: »

Well Carol on BBC Breakfast weather says snow showers for UK east coasts on Sunday, but not enough to make a snow man. For that reason and my previous short term feelings I dont think we'll see anything remarkable for a week or perhaps two, if at all. Yes the trend is our friend but the Atlantic is our master

Nice forecast by met eireann on radio there, snow Sunday and into next week possibly significant snowfall. Would take that

decies

You'd want to be either a child or a bit slow to be looking for significant amount of snow for the country that brings not but hardship for people , grow up the lot of ye !!!





YOU HAVE NOTHING TO ADD HERE AND CALLING PEOPLE SLOW IS NOT ON , BANNED FOR PERSONAL ABUSE

please dont quote or reply to this post as it will only take the thread off topic

oterra

MT is approaching next week on a %'s level, which is all that can really be done considering the diverse outcomes of the models after 96-120hrs(F1).
He still seems to be adamant of a severe cold spell late Jan early Feb, which is lurking well into F1 for some time now. 06z/12z Gfs will be big players in the game today IMHO.

Slashermcguirk

Makes a change from seeing miserable rain and puddles all year long. At least snow on the ground brightens up the short dark days.

Jaffusmaximus

Larbre34 wrote: »

Well Carol on BBC Breakfast weather says snow showers for UK east coasts on Sunday, but not enough to make a snow man. For that reason and my previous short term feelings I dont think we'll see anything remarkable for a week or perhaps two, if at all. Yes the trend is our friend but the Atlantic is our master

Well Carols on BBC Breakfast weather forecast is

Tom Cruises Left Nut

To be fair on the 00z GFS it has flip flopped

The OP is mild and the ensembles have gone cold !

Speak Now

oterra wrote: »

Ecm looks great into F1. Why the back track from Gfs????

Because it's all FI really, still only Wednesday morning outputs. Yesterday we wanted the ECM to flip to GFS solution, this morning it's the opposite Plenty of swings yet lads, not the time to be taking each run at face value. T120 is currently Saturday night so all very far away in weather terms yet.

PixelTrawler

From Met Eireann

"At the moment Sunday night and the early days of next week brings the threat of more significant snow to places and it will feel very cold with the winds strengthening."

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Solyad wrote: »

From Met Eireann

"At the moment Sunday night and the early days of next week brings the threat of more significant snow to places and it will feel very cold with the winds strengthening."

Totes based on the ECM ! :pac:

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Ha, 226 on the forum before 9am !:pac:

steveLFC24

I don't pay generally attention to the CFS, but I just glanced at it and its quite unbelievable. Puts the UK and Ireland in the freezer from the 15th until around the 24th, between -8 and -12 uppers for the whole period :eek: One can dream I suppose :P

partay pooper

ok so should i start glueing tennis rackets to my boots???

Jaffusmaximus

steveLFC24 wrote: »

I don't pay generally attention to the CFS, but I just glanced at it and its quite unbelievable. Puts the UK and Ireland in the freezer from the 15th until around the 24th, between -8 and -12 uppers for the whole period :eek: One can dream I suppose :P

All the while some long range forecasts have been saying Feb will be the prime month for cold. Gonna be Epic if trend continues! We are going through the turbulent stage of change over the next few days.

pistolpetes11

t|nt|n wrote: »

Totes based on the ECM ! :pac:

As Su Campu used to always say when someone said this

"They use a blend of ECMWF, UKMO, GME, Hirlam, Harmonie for there forecasts"