LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

Tom Cruises Left Nut

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

As Su Campu used to always say when someone said this

"They use a blend of ECMWF, UKMO, GME, Hirlam, Harmonie for there forecasts"

I stand corrected Sir

Ha :pac:

Redsunset

Stick to the short term for now because when the full influence of easterly strat air comes down to trop levels the charts could get really mental. There probably picking up the signal now but give them time to sort it out.

Something BIG is coming I tells ya and we are just getting the appetiser to begin with and so as we drool for the main course we might have to wait that bit longer, just like asking for a well done steak when you should of asked for rare.

Ps
Strat Warmings aid chances, they don't guarantee the cold.

Iancar29

derekon wrote: »

OK major divergence on the 0z models this morning - the 0z ECM (used by Met Eireann) has -8 uppers over the east coast from Sunday through to the following Saturday.

However, the 0z GFS only has -8 uppers skirting the east coast for Sunday and Monday and then its back to Atlantic muck.

Is this thing on the cusp of going tits up? :mad:

D

ECM only has -8s skirting the east coast on wednesday. You must be looking at the -6 line?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

06z..... the nerves !!!!!!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

A worse run than the 00z, the colder uppers only briefly touch the east coast at +102

Reckless Abandonment

At 102 the colder 850 are more east..

kennyb3

Yet again the atlantic is pushing back quicker than expected, it's like a bloody shield for us

Johnny1999

Just seen an Army Truck going through Bluebell with a snow plough on the front!

leahyl

Problem123456

This why I try to not get exited:(

pistolpetes11

Folks run to run there will be changes , a bit of kop on and less of the dramatics is whats need here !

rainbowdash

Johnny1999 wrote: »

Just seen an Army Truck going through Bluebell with a snow plough on the front!

There is an air of inevitablilty about it now, all sorts of emergency systems activated, RTE down the docks filming the salt being unloaded, and so on, then nothing happens at all except rain and mist spreading from the west!

maquiladora

Sadly, GFS continues and confirms the trend with the latest 06Z run. I just cannot see that turning around within such a short time now. The 06Z is even less likely to build heights than the 0Z was.


If may be time to take a break from models and expectations for a couple of days and then see if perhaps we get a chance for something further in the future again.

JanuarySnowstor

It looks like Met Eireann could have some serious egg on their faces by tonight if the 12's follow the gfs 06z and 00z runs.
Their website forecast is now looking highly inaccurate for the wkd and early next week

icesnowfrost

maquiladora wrote: »

Sadly, GFS continues and confirms the trend with the latest 06Z run. I just cannot see that turning around within such a short time now. The 06Z is even less likely to build heights than the 0Z was.


If may be time to take a break from models and expectations for a couple of days and then see if perhaps we get a chance for something further in the future again.

What the hell does that mean? So all of a sudden it's not going to get as cold on Sunday into next week with no chance of snow. Things were looking so good for so long it's hard to believe its all over

leahyl

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Folks run to run there will be changes , a bit of kop on and less of the dramatics is whats need here !

Ah but come on Pistolpetes - it's a ramping thread :pac:

Scubadevils

I wouldn't worry too much, disappointing if it doesn't emerge this weekend but take heed of MT's words in his forecast from today... he has been pretty certain of this for a long time now. I especially like the bit in bold :pac:

Forecast models have been shifting around considerably since my previous forecast and during the day on Tuesday the general consensus was heavily towards much colder weather next week ... now I find that that change has been partially but not totally reversed. We are also seeing a role reversal of leading models similar to what happened in December when there was a rather similar threat. This is all stated to explain my decision to retire just kidding to hedge my forecast outlook for next week because the outcome most likely is transitional, not a full-on cold spell and not a complete return to mild either. I think we're dealing with an uncertain situation where percentage chances are needed to give some realistic guidance. But I do continue to believe that sooner or later, the U.K. and Ireland can expect spells of severe winter weather. If that begins next week, it may back off for a time before returning in stronger concentrations. The timing is not the only factor to consider, people would be wise to prepare for a wintry period of some length given the combination of evident risk and ongoing stratospheric warming events. This concern would not be reduced if next week's cold happens to be downgraded later in the forecast period.

Min

icesnowfrost wrote: »

What the hell does that mean? So all of a sudden it's not going to get as cold on Sunday into next week with no chance of snow. Things were looking so good for so long it's hard to believe its all over

That is why you will find rollercoasters in threads like this. The weather models can give you a high or a low.

maquiladora

icesnowfrost wrote: »

What the hell does that mean? So all of a sudden it's not going to get as cold on Sunday into next week with no chance of snow. Things were looking so good for so long it's hard to believe its all over

It's a rollercoaster, ups and downs. We had some pretty bigs ups yesterday and now we gets the downs today.

maquiladora

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

It looks like Met Eireann could have some serious egg on their faces by tonight if the 12's follow the gfs 06z and 00z runs.
Their website forecast is now looking highly inaccurate for the wkd and early next week

You do realise that Met Eireann don't control what the ECM shows? Maybe its the big supercomputer in Reading that should have egg on its face.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Its certainly interesting anyway !

I do wonder how the models are handling the warming, this may not have been factored in yet so there are changes possible certainly.

12z will give us a much better idea as we have all major model runs to look at

Pray the ECM sticks to its guns and the GFS apologises profusely !

Super hoop

Just bought a snow shovel :-(

Min

maquiladora wrote: »

You do realise that Met Eireann don't control what the ECM shows? Maybe its the big supercomputer in Reading that should have egg on its face.

I think Met Eireann should let the public know this, people will assume things given the conflicting forecasts they are putting out for the period after 3 to 4 days.

icesnowfrost

But what does it mean for the weekend and next week. Is it all over or are we going to get all happy again later today wen the models/charts change there mind again

Jostef

But what about the ECM 0z?! (which is still following it's trend from yesterdays 12z)That was a great, run and considering that the ECM is more accurate than the GFS, I think there is still every reason to be optimistic! Please somebody explain why GFS suddenly trumps ECM.

maquiladora

Min wrote: »

I think Met Eireann should let the public know this, people will assume things given the conflicting forecasts they are putting out for the period after 3 to 4 days.

Their medium range forecast is based on the ECM, so if that downgrades (as it probably will) this evening then their forecast will change.

whitebriar

Min wrote: »

I think Met Eireann should let the public know this, people will assume things given the conflicting forecasts they are putting out for the period after 3 to 4 days.

Their 755 am this morning on radio one said more prolonged snow possible next week with snow showers in the East by Sunday night.
They definitely need to explain the uncertainty.
Evelyn is a good explainer and is bound to take control soon (I hope)

I think there is a strong risk of Ireland staying under the Atlantic muck when it comes in at the weekend.
At this stage that's the form horse in my view until and unless there's a greenie high and a Scandi high of sorts.

But who knows,models are in total flux.Keep taking the VAL,I'spose.

BEASTERLY

maquiladora wrote: »

Their medium range forecast is based on the ECM, so if that downgrades (as it probably will) this evening then their forecast will change.

The GFS is on it's own at 120 onwards for now though?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

BEASTERLY wrote: »

The GFS is on it's own at 120 onwards for now though?

Exactly, if the ECM can do backtracks then so can the GFS

12zs next please !

Jaffusmaximus

Now is a time for a reminder that what is unfolding at the moment is just a prelude to the big show that has been touted for the end of the month and going into Feb. We are getting cooler temps sooner at the moment than many expected!