LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

maquiladora

BEASTERLY wrote: »

The GFS is on it's own at 120 onwards for now though?

The past 2 op runs have shown this now. The past 4 control and ensembles have shown leaned this way too. It looks like a solid trend now and I just can't see it being turned around within such a short time. Of course we'll have to wait for the 12Z's but I think it will be a case of the other models catching up with the GFS solution now.

I would love to be wrong.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Ensemble time

The GFS 00z had flipped and the OP was rotten but the ensembles colder, lets see !

BEASTERLY

maquiladora wrote: »

The past 2 op runs have shown this now. The past 4 control and ensembles have shown leaned this way too. It looks like a solid trend now and I just can't see it being turned around within such a short time. Of course we'll have to wait for the 12Z's but I think it will be a case of the other models catching up with the GFS solution now.

I would love to be wrong.

Deep down I know youre right...:(

Spindle

Why do people always start Met Eireann bashing, they are using words like

"possibly", "currently it looks like" "at the moment brings a threat of"

Nowhere in there have they said on x day it will snow for sure, they are giving advanced warning of bad weather and their wording of it surely shows to anybody that it is not a given.

If they said that there is to much uncertainty to give any outlook for next week, they would be bashed as well, for not flagging what could be bad weather.

Sit back relax the weather will happen, it always does, sometimes we are better at forecasting, sometimes our models are pants, and expert meteorologists will make calls using all there knowledge and blend of models, they have access to more models and information than we can ever get.

Final point Met Eireann don't control the weather, they just report what might happen.

Redsunset

My Sig......

Super hoop

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Update from NOAA

SATURDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS DEPICT A WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE BAROCLINIC AXIS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD
SPREADING LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO IL...AND POSSIBLY INTO SE IA. THE
GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH A MUCH STRONGER AND MORE NW TRACKING SYSTEM...
WHICH RESULTS IN OUR FORECAST KEEPING CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

That nw tracking system is the one that heads towards western Greenland and phases with troughing in the west Atlantic.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITIONS EAST OVER THE AREA. THIS
WILL RETURN TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL. MODELS
DIVERGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH THE GFS DEPICTING A LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND ANOTHER SYSTEM BRUSHING PAST TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS PHASED WITH MORE
OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN...KEEPING SYSTEMS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST.

I should also add though that NOAA didn't think much of last nights ECM operational run in terms of what it did with the PV in the USA.

LATE DAY 6 TUE THRU DAY 7 WED FOLLOW A 70/30 WEIGHTING OF THE 12Z
ECMWF/18Z GEFS MEANS GIVEN ROBUST ENSEMBLE MEAN AGREEMENT AND
VERIFICATION CONSIDERATIONS IN FAVOR OF THE 12Z ECMWF MEAN. THE
12Z ECMWF BRINGS ITS NRN CANADA VORTEX WELL SWD OF CONSENSUS BY
WED.

In layman terms please?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Ian Ferguson on NW referring to the Met Office outlook:

They most certainly haven't ignored it but in 00z analysis for longer-term end by saying "NCEP-GFS considered unlikely and ECMWF preferred." Anyway, they won't consider 06z GFS in next update and only refer to midnight and midday runs.

Speak Now

Wow the 06z GFS was a horror show for those seeking cold and snow :eek:

Lets see what UKMO/ECM show this evening :cool:

icesnowfrost

so is the cold and snow not coming sunday for east of ireland

Jaffusmaximus

TAKE THAT GFS 6Z!!!

@MattHugo81: Looking like distinct mild outliers the deterministic and control run of the 06z GFS - http://t.co/Uh80ws97 - good news for those cold fans

[IMG][/img] Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Slashermcguirk

This is an interesting article about big snow events in Ireland over the past century and more, amazing to think how cold it was in December 2010. I remember it being -8 degrees when i woke up on Christmas Day morning in Dublin

http://www.thejournal.ie/snow-ireland-facts-723323-Dec2012/

pistolpetes11

Super hoop wrote: »

In layman terms please?

They are not keen on the output of the latest GFS "horror show " is the most basic way to put it ,

The game is still on , looking forward to the ensembles now

Slashermcguirk

another update just up on Met Eireann website:


Sunday will start mainly dry and bright with frost and ice clearing slowly but temperatures will struggle to rise significantly. Winds will back northwesterly, light to moderate during the day. During the evening, outbreaks of rain will turn persistent in the northwest and west, then becoming more widespread across the country as the night goes on. As the rain comes further east, it will be likely to turn to sleet and snow, especially on higher ground. Widespread rain and sleet is likely for much of Monday, with snow possible down to low levels and perhaps accumulating in places. This will clear overnight into Tuesday; severe frost will result and ice or lying snow will persist. Tuesday and Wednesday will both be very cold with ongoing severe night frosts persisting into daylight hours. Most of the country will be dry but easterly breezes are likely to bring wintry showers to eastern counties later with further snowfall possible there.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

another update just up on Met Eireann website:


Sunday will start mainly dry and bright with frost and ice clearing slowly but temperatures will struggle to rise significantly. Winds will back northwesterly, light to moderate during the day. During the evening, outbreaks of rain will turn persistent in the northwest and west, then becoming more widespread across the country as the night goes on. As the rain comes further east, it will be likely to turn to sleet and snow, especially on higher ground. Widespread rain and sleet is likely for much of Monday, with snow possible down to low levels and perhaps accumulating in places. This will clear overnight into Tuesday; severe frost will result and ice or lying snow will persist. Tuesday and Wednesday will both be very cold with ongoing severe night frosts persisting into daylight hours. Most of the country will be dry but easterly breezes are likely to bring wintry showers to eastern counties later with further snowfall possible there.

Looks like they are ignoring the GFS as well.....

hotwhiskey

Still looking good for cold!

maquiladora

t|nt|n wrote: »

Looks like they are ignoring the GFS as well.....

As far as I know the GFS is never part of official forecasting here. It's an American model. Ireland is part of the ECMWF and thats the model thats used for that range by Met Eireann.

Speak Now

What loaction are those ensembles for hotwhiskey?

Spindle

t|nt|n wrote: »

Looks like they are ignoring the GFS as well.....

I am ignoring anything that says mild as well

Is it possible the strat warming has caused the East winds to mix down quicker than were expected? Hopefully somebody knows something that we don't see in the current GFS models. I thought the current cold spell was just a prelude to the main event that we might get as result of the SSW.

Also that is some serious ramping with their current outlook, to be continued I think.......

Speak Now

Here are the Dublin ensembles from GFS 06z

pistolpetes11

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

What loaction are those ensembles for hotwhiskey?

just outside of manchester

http://maps.google.ie/maps?oe=utf-8&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&channel=fflb&q=53.5N+2.1W&um=1&ie=UTF-8&hq=&hnear=0x487bb6530d082b5f:0x79fa7a91fb168569,%2B53%C2%B0+29%27+59.04%22,+-2%C2%B0+6%27+0.97%22&gl=ie&sa=X&ei=G13tUNuYDpGIhQeo54CwBQ&ved=0CC8Q8gEwAA

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Here are the Dublin ensembles from GFS 06z

I'd take the control run !!!

Speak Now

t|nt|n wrote: »

I'd take the control run !!!

From Monday week :P

Jaffusmaximus

bradythemole, on 09 January 2013 - 12:08 , said:
@GlacierPoint Thanks GP, interesting that nogaps 00z picked this up and dropped it on 6z. Just a quick question, are you leaning towards ECM or GFS at this stage regarding next week.

70% ECM 30% GFS

Speak Now

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

another update just up on Met Eireann website:


Sunday will start mainly dry and bright with frost and ice clearing slowly but temperatures will struggle to rise significantly. Winds will back northwesterly, light to moderate during the day. During the evening, outbreaks of rain will turn persistent in the northwest and west, then becoming more widespread across the country as the night goes on. As the rain comes further east, it will be likely to turn to sleet and snow, especially on higher ground. Widespread rain and sleet is likely for much of Monday, with snow possible down to low levels and perhaps accumulating in places. This will clear overnight into Tuesday; severe frost will result and ice or lying snow will persist. Tuesday and Wednesday will both be very cold with ongoing severe night frosts persisting into daylight hours. Most of the country will be dry but easterly breezes are likely to bring wintry showers to eastern counties later with further snowfall possible there.

I find it amazing they've forecast so far out in the current uncertainty.

maquiladora

For anyone feeling downbeat, it's important to remember that even if the worst case scenario happens and we end up with a couple of weeks of zonal wet/mild weather, it's still only Jan 9th, there would be plenty of time left this winter for another rollercoaster ride. We've already had a few failed episodes this winter. The key is to enjoy the ride while it's good & don't resort to straw clutching if the writing is on the wall, then look forward to the next one. :pac:

Slashermcguirk

Surely ME must be confident of snow already if they are backing up their previous forecast. I know they get it wrong a lot but to go into this much detail about next week, they must seem pretty sure. Why predict that far ahead otherwise?

Jaffusmaximus

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

I find it amazing they've forecast so far out in the current uncertainty.

I honestly feel the dilemma now for national weather agencies is the risk is too great now just just continue to sit on the fence. If a major cold event is showing its hand then the last thing Met Eireann or the UKMO want to be accused of is being complacent!

They will need to call this with a fair amount of confidence over the next 7 days!

rainbowdash

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

I honestly feel the dilemma now for national weather agencies is the risk is too great now just just continue to sit on the fence. If a major cold event is showing its hand then the last thing Met Eireann or the UKMO want to be accused of is being complacent!

They will need to call this with a fair amount of confidence over the next 7 days!

Yes but I think Donegal town council or somebody up there threatened to sue them a few years ago when they predicted a desperate weekend and everybody cancelled weekend trips to Donegal. Of course the weather never happened and the businesses lost money!

Spindle

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

I honestly feel the dilemma now for national weather agencies is the risk is too great now just just continue to sit on the fence. If a major cold event is showing its hand then the last thing Met Eireann or the UKMO want to be accused of is being complacent!

They will need to call this with a fair amount of confidence over the next 7 days!

But then that ruins the fun of Ninja snow

Hi

Ive read the posts from today. Am I right in saying that there is little chance now of snow for Sunday and early next week for the SE?