LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

DOCARCH

TheTorment wrote: »

Hi

Ive read the posts from today. Am I right in saying that there is little chance now of snow for Sunday and early next week for the SE?

To sum it up. ECM says YES. GFS say NO.

DOCARCH

DOCARCH wrote: »

To sum it up. ECM says YES. GFS say NO.

Which one is the more accurate?

I know which one I want!!!

pistolpetes11

DOCARCH wrote: »

To sum it up. ECM says YES. GFS say NO.

Not quite true on the GFS only 2 ens support it out to T144 with the Atlantic LP systems and flattening of the pattern

Speak Now

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

I honestly feel the dilemma now for national weather agencies is the risk is too great now just just continue to sit on the fence. If a major cold event is showing its hand then the last thing Met Eireann or the UKMO want to be accused of is being complacent!

They will need to call this with a fair amount of confidence over the next 7 days!

I agree Jaffus but remember yesterday mornings long range forecast?

4/5 days ahead would be plenty at the moment, that brings us up to cold weather Sunday/Monday.
Plenty of time to elaborate in the coming days.

Just feel they're opening themselves up to the bashers. Remember there are lots of people outside of weather forums who dont really understand what forecasts are and expect them to be accurate all of the time

JanuarySnowstor

Spindle wrote: »

Why do people always start Met Eireann bashing, they are using words like

"possibly", "currently it looks like" "at the moment brings a threat of"
Final point Met Eireann don't control the weather, they just report what might happen.

They could highlight the uncertainties and not commit to saying snow next week. The UK Met are much more uncertain and they are in the coldest air!! Ireland was always going to be on the brink, even going by ECM. It's quite clear from us watching the models that they all have their day and not to bank the ECM against gfs!!

whitebriar

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

I agree Jaffus but remember yesterday mornings long range forecast?

4/5 days ahead would be plenty at the moment, that brings us up to cold weather Sunday/Monday.
Plenty of time to elaborate in the coming days.

Just feel they're opening themselves up to the bashers. Remember there are lots of people outside of weather forums who dont really understand what forecasts are and expect them to be accurate all of the time

I honestly think,quality control should ensure that every forecast out of Glasnevin describing Sunday onwards contains the uncertainty caveat.
On BBC forecasts,one line works well on tv and radio and that is,stay tuned,this could change,we'll keep you updated,and to be fair they are mostly doing that.
Though the end of the 755 am radio one was rushed,such that listeners might expect snow.
Rushing should be avoided,the caveats are important.

Speak Now

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Not quite true on the GFS only 2 ens support it out to T144 with the Atlantic LP systems and flattening of the pattern

More of a concern Pete is the sharp rise in the mean from 13th to the 16th :mad:. Lets hope the operational and control runs aren't holding that vital piece of information thats missing on the lower resolution!!

Speak Now

whitebriar wrote: »

I honestly think,quality control should ensure that every forecast out of Glasnevin describing Sunday onwards contains the uncertainty caveat.
On BBC forecasts,one line works well on tv and radio and that is,stay tuned,this could change,we'll keep you updated.

Yes let’s hope Evelyn is next up on the TV rotation after Gerry. She's very good at explaining to people in these situations. I'd swear i noticed Gerry grimacing last night when he mentioned sleet

Speak Now

whitebriar wrote: »

Though the end of the 755 am radio one was rushed,such that listeners might expect snow.
Rushing should be avoided,the caveats are important.

Yes hate it when they rush over at 2 mins to 8 :mad:.

Still I always refer to their website after it anyway

Joe Public

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Surely ME must be confident of snow already if they are backing up their previous forecast. I know they get it wrong a lot but to go into this much detail about next week, they must seem pretty sure. Why predict that far ahead otherwise?

They do surprise me at times, even on TV some of the ME presenters don't tend to use words like % chance, possible different scenarios etc. and can forecast up to 7 days ahead as if it's written in stone. Sometimes they can mention there is uncertainty but not often enough. You'd never see MTC giving 7 day forecasts with such confidence and he always has some out clauses built in.

E.G. on Monday night's weather E.C. said it would be mild next week, not possibly mild but mild. Last night G.M. said it would be cold next week.
It amazes me how often they don't add in the "out clauses".

weatherfiend

I seriously need to get something done around here but I can't make myself walk away from the screen!! very exciting at the moment - great fun

DOCARCH

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Not quite true on the GFS only 2 ens support it out to T144 with the Atlantic LP systems and flattening of the pattern

Oh, I know - was just trying to over simplify latest runs, in terms of GFS trying to bring us back to mild, pretty quick, while ECM keeps us cold.

Latest GFS run has us back to 10c + by Tuesday.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Here PP

Maybe we should set up KSA meetings (Kildare Snowaholics Anonymous)

I think I need it :mad:

icesnowfrost

Met E----check it out

maquiladora

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

They could highlight the uncertainties and not commit to saying snow next week. The UK Met are much more uncertain and they are in the coldest air!! Ireland was always going to be on the brink, even going by ECM. It's quite clear from us watching the models that they all have their day and not to bank the ECM against gfs!!

UK Met Office is a huge entity compared to Met Eireann. They has there own suite of global and regional models as well as the ECM that they can compare output with and define uncertainty.

We are a small country with a small met service with one official model for the range the outlook is to be based on.

We all know the outlook is a written version of the ECM.

A very easy target to bash them whenever the ECM changes just because we are angry that now the models aren't showing the type of weather we want. Boo hoo.

weatherfiend

Met E----check it out

:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

pistolpetes11

NOAA on the Michigan state forecast sum things up perfectly!

OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE BULK OF THE LONG TERM AS MODEL
DISCREPANCIES ARE QUITE APPARENT ESPECIALLY AT DEEPER RANGES INTO
THE FORECAST. THIS WINTER HAS SEEMED TO FEATURE MODEL RUN TO MODEL
RUN INCONSISTENCIES IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AND THIS LONG TERM
PERIOD AND BEYOND SEEMS NO DIFFERENT.

Earlier regarding the important shortwave track:

AFTER SATURDAY CONFIDENCE REALLY DIPS GIVEN MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS. THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH IT
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A SIMILAR SETUP OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HAVE 30-50 POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE SUNDAY SYSTEM AND
ONLY 20 POPS IN FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY SYSTEM GIVEN THE MODEL
DISPARITIES.

howlinwolf

i dont know about the rest of the people here but id take the frosty foggy cold days for the next week or two until the big bang comes at the end of january(hopefully)... i feel even if we get snow from sunday on we are so marginal it will be the horrible turn to slush straight away stuff for most except people at high level and i defo dont want that :rolleyes:

ZX7R

I think personally ,i would go with the ECM they have been more accurate over the year ,i just don't think the GSF has a good handle on the cold yet ,i can see upgrades and down grade with every run of the GFS EXCITING times ahead lets hope the ecm keeps giving the goods:)

icesnowfrost

Jesus met e didn't give anything away there at all went as far as Saturday. But then on the 5 day picture forecast they have snow on east coast Monday

Jaffusmaximus

Here is a simple little 5 Day weather checker on Met Eireann for those who may not be aware of.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/5day-ireland.asp

force eleven

http://www.neforum2.co.uk/ferryhillweather/bonacina.html

A year by year guide to the snowiest/ snowless winters. I note for Cork people, 18 inch fall in 1892 and there are others, forgotten through time no doubt.

howlinwolf

mag has been spot on calling the charts and graphs through this period and its starting to worry that hes gettin a little downbeat about the coming days:(

dacogawa

What time does the GFS, ECM & UKMO 12z start to roll out please ?

Jaffusmaximus

howlinwolf wrote: »

mag has been spot on calling the charts and graphs through this period and its starting to worry that hes gettin a little downbeat about the coming days:(

Its the uncertainty that worrying but nothing mild has truly shown its hand, the GFS that has cause some uncertainty today has been basically written off by the experts so its down to it to prove that it is leading the way. Once again until we see things at 96 Hrs during the oncoming SSW then its phantoms we are chasing!

Blizzard 2010

To be honest guys we are in for a bit of a hammering next week. Mothers of all freezes is about to hit us:D

Tom Cruises Left Nut

dacogawa wrote: »

What time does the GFS, ECM & UKMO 12z start to roll out please ?

GFS - 15:30

UKMO - About 4 or so I believe

ECM - 18:00

dacogawa

t|nt|n wrote: »

GFS - 15:30

UKMO - About 4 or so I believe

ECM - 18:00

Thank you t|nt|n, I'll keep those handy till March...

Tom Cruises Left Nut

dacogawa wrote: »

Thank you t|nt|n, I'll keep those handy till March...

But what if it snows in May like ???

Slashermcguirk

where do you find those actual charts, what websites for ECM, UKMO and GFS?