LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

maw368

They GFS maybe showing the atlantic winning next week but I thought the issue at present is that the models can't be trusted more than about 96 hours so why take what the GFS says for next week as gospel.

downwiththatsor

ME update

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

maw368

I'm hoping that Simon Keeling is right and Wales could be in for a battleground scenario and potentially 18 hours of snow fall. I'll take that please

Musicman2000

maw368 wrote: »

They GFS maybe showing the atlantic winning next week but I thought the issue at present is that the models can't be trusted more than about 96 hours so why take what the GFS says for next week as gospel.

Exactly makes me laugh people saying this is going to happen, FI at the moment is 96 hours as the models are so volatile. The Gfs doesn't tie in with the current strat conditions and down welling.

Now we all know what happened back in December the GFS was first to pick up on the so called cold spell and dropped it as fast, and then the Ecm and Ukmo followed suit. I really hope this doesn't happen a very interesting ECM 12z run on the way

Weathering

maw368 wrote: »

They GFS maybe showing the atlantic winning next week but I thought the issue at present is that the models can't be trusted more than about 96 hours so why take what the GFS says for next week as gospel.

Here here

Harry Deerpark

maw368 wrote: »

I'm hoping that Simon Keeling is right and Wales could be in for a battleground scenario and potentially 18 hours of snow fall. I'll take that please

What kind of precipitation/snowfall rates would we be looking at in those 18 hours, if that's not too much too ask?

Rebelbrowser

I think it is relevant too that whilst the GFS is consistent in showing the Atlantic winning early on, it is very inconsistent in how it models that. I would say it is not even being internally consistent which must place further question marks over it.

Either way the GFS 12z is a big upgrade for the weekend. My area was under -4's this morning, its -8's on the 12z so happy with that.

Weathering

Harry Deerpark wrote: »

What kind of precipitation/snowfall rates would we be looking at in those 18 hours, if that's not too much too ask?

It would only be a guess to answer that now

kennyb3

see you all at 6

Weathering

Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81
Once again model divergence. UKMO model sustains a more blocked colder pattern - http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/runs/2013010912/UW144-21.GIF?09-17 …

Graupel

Interesting weekend ahead with the east under -8s through saturday night, A chance of snow for some maybe.

In the longer term the GFS is worrying as it has established a trend now with regards to the breakdown but a few other models including the UKMO NOGAPS and GEM are not so certain of that so it ain't over yet by any means. ECM will be interesting.

Anyway I think MT is right and were not going to see any sustained cold till late month, But it will come.

maw368

Harry Deerpark wrote: »

What kind of precipitation/snowfall rates would we be looking at in those 18 hours, if that's not too much too ask?

This was coming from Simon Keeling, watch his video forecast a few pages back. I think he said about 10 inches for high levels and couple inches at low levels but he also mentions the obvious uncertainties

Slashermcguirk

When MT says there is a better chance for later in the month, what is this based on? Surely forecasting that far is almost impossible. Is that due to cold building up to the east over Scandinavia / Continental Europe over a sustained period of time and then its likely movement east.

I dont doubt MT as the guy clearly knows his stuff but am intrigued as to how anybody can predict that far ahead

maquiladora

12Z GEM has downgraded things from its last run. It's not as bad as the GFS, but it has leaned towards the GFS.

Looking ropey in comparison to the 0Z.

ZX7R

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

When MT says there is a better chance for later in the month, what is this based on? Surely forecasting that far is almost impossible. Is that due to cold building up to the east over Scandinavia / Continental Europe over a sustained period of time and then its likely movement east.

I don't doubt MT as the guy clearly knows his stuff but am intrigued as to how anybody can predict that far ahead

I think he looks at how past winters went and builds a forecast with that and model watching and a lot of experience

John.Icy

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Exactly makes me laugh people saying this is going to happen, FI at the moment is 96 hours as the models are so volatile. The Gfs doesn't tie in with the current strat conditions and down welling.

But when you factor in the fact that nine times out of ten, the Atlantic solution will win out over a proper cold spell on the models, it is easy to see why the GFS is causing worry for some.

I for one can see the gfs being on to something, unless the op is even more of an outlier than the 6z. Even with the SSW, the proper results of that mightn't be seen till end of Jan/start of Feb (MT's favoured time for cold also). As Ian Ferguson(?) said the other day, some of the current cold outlook was unrelated to the SSW.

Jaffusmaximus

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

When MT says there is a better chance for later in the month, what is this based on? Surely forecasting that far is almost impossible. Is that due to cold building up to the east over Scandinavia / Continental Europe over a sustained period of time and then its likely movement east.

I dont doubt MT as the guy clearly knows his stuff but am intrigued as to how anybody can predict that far ahead

All forecasts are educated guess's

icesnowfrost

Fog is back already and the frost. it's nearly white here again in Drogheda from the frost, some frost never melted all day. I am loving this crips cold spell. now if it would only snow for 8 hours non stop I'd be happy out lol

Speak Now

As usual i'd expect both GFS and ECM to meet somewhere in the middle which will probably be good news for Britain but not so good for us.

Even with the UKMO solution we're just to near the high pressure.

At least there will be frost :pac:

maquiladora

Had a quick scan through the GFS ensembles. About 7 or 8 out of 20 looked good for what we are looking for out to 180. There is potential there.

icesnowfrost

I'd love to see the GFS eat it's words on Sunday wen it snows lol. If only

Saganist

Graupel wrote: »

Interesting weekend ahead with the east under -8s through saturday night, A chance of snow for some maybe.

In the longer term the GFS is worrying as it has established a trend now with regards to the breakdown but a few other models including the UKMO NOGAPS and GEM are not so certain of that so it ain't over yet by any means. ECM will be interesting.

Anyway I think MT is right and were not going to see any sustained cold till late month, But it will come.

Great Username. Welcome to Boards. :pac:

tomcosgrave

What's graupel? Can anyone help me on this?

maquiladora

Have to say this is the most dramatic period of model watching I can remember for a long time. I almost don't want to see the 12Z ECM.

Rebelbrowser

I know I'm a broken record on this but the run of the model we are worried about, namely GFS 12z, is showing snow in my area (and most areas in a east line from Kenmare to Belfast) from Saturday evening to Monday afternoon. That's a fair wad of snow forecast within the next 100 hours. All I will say is may all the "horror show" runs for the rest of the winter be as "bad" as it!

(and yes I know it won't snow from Sat evening to Monday, and I know Cork is more marginal than most, etc, etc, etc - but this is what the 12z GFS is showing....)

Weathering

maquiladora wrote: »

Have to say this is the most dramatic period of model watching I can remember for a long time. I almost don't want to see the 12Z ECM.

This hasn't been a rollercoaster. It's been a rollercoast/hammer/teacups/giant swing thing/bumping cars with a hint of live to ride

Candyfloss anyone?

maquiladora

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I know I'm a broken record on this but the run of the model we are worried about, namely GFS 12z, is showing snow in my area (and most areas in a east line from Kenmare to Belfast) from Saturday evening to Monday afternoon. That's a fair wad of snow forecast within the next 100 hours. All I will say is may all the "horror show" runs for the rest of the winter be as "bad" as it!

(and yes I know it won't snow from Sat evening to Monday, and I know Cork is more marginal than most, etc, etc, etc - but this is what the 12z GFS is showing....)

Dunno what charts you're seeing that on but here there is virtually no precip shown anywhere during that time. Looking at low res charts?

Some Irish Sea streamers might be the only possibilty here. Precip is hard to forecast that far ahead though, but the 12Z looks pretty dry for that time.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=90&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

The conditions there would be ok for snow, even in Cork, if there was precip.

Rebelbrowser

maquiladora wrote: »

Dunno what charts you're seeing that on but here there is virtually no precip shown anywhere during that time. Looking at low res charts?

Some Irish Sea streamers might be the only possibilty here. Precip is hard to forecast that far ahead though, but the 12Z looks pretty dry for that time.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=90&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Just going on the GFS precipitation thingy (on meteociel)...am I misreading it?

maquiladora

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Just going on the GFS precipitation thingy...am I misreading it?

Got a link?

Oh wait, from Saturday evening, I misread as Sunday evening.
There is som precip there Saturday but it's before the colder air gets here.

esposito

maquiladora wrote: »

Have to say this is the most dramatic period of model watching I can remember for a long time. I almost don't want to see the 12Z ECM.

You just know its gonna be s**t.
Better to lower expectations now. Milder next week, lets face it