LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

Saganist

esposito wrote: »

You just know its gonna be s**t.
Better to lower expectations now. Milder next week, lets face it

There should be mandatory banning for this kind of talk..

Have faith. The next run is going to be EPIC.. :pac:

mickger844posts

Squeaky bum time with ECM 12Z coming up soon A crucial run with hopefully a continuation of the trend.

Rebelbrowser

maquiladora wrote: »

Got a link?

Oh wait, from Saturday evening, I misread as Sunday evening.
There is som precip there Saturday but it's before the colder air gets here.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=2

Graupel

Saganist wrote: »

Great Username. Welcome to Boards. :pac:

Thank you.

Deep Easterly

How the GFS 12z en mean is looking at 168. (MSLP) This would suggest that the 12z op was fair sized outlier and that the majority of its ensembles would continue to favour slacker, ridge (or col) type conditions be more dominant for next week. ECMWF will be interesting to see, and I would be very surprised it it showed any significant back track tbh.



Unnerving times!

maquiladora

esposito wrote: »

You just know its gonna be s**t.
Better to lower expectations now. Milder next week, lets face it

Maybe so. But there is still enough uncertainty that I'm not throwing the towel in just yet. At least have to wait for the ECM this evening.

DOCARCH

mickger844posts wrote: »

Squeaky bum time......

Indeed! Touching cloth here.

cristoir

Usually just lurk on this forum but I have to thank you all for explaining in layman's what all these charts and info mean.

maquiladora

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=2

Ah yeah, the problem with that is that its a precip chart for a huge area so a small bit of precip gets represented by a much larger graphic. It looks like there is more precip than there actually is.

Use one like this, shows just the UK and Ireland, easier to see.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=9&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

ZX7R

If we do get snow over the weekend and it is lying snow i would not be surprised to see some very cold temptress over the nights maybe -8/-12 this cold would make for some great battle ground snow events if milder air does move in from the west ,what are other peoples views on this

mike65

downwiththatsor wrote: »

ME update

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

Widespread rain and sleet is likely for much of Monday, with snow possible down to low levels and perhaps accumulating in places. This will clear overnight into Tuesday; severe frost will result and ice or lying snow will persist. Tuesday and Wednesday will both be very cold with ongoing severe night frosts persisting into daylight hours. Most of the country will be dry but easterly breezes are likely to bring wintry showers to eastern counties later with further snowfall possible there.

Thats a rather dubious forecast at this point.

Musicman2000

mike65 wrote: »

Thats a rather dubious forecast at this point.

They are only going by this mornings ECM 0z , if the 12z changes so will the above

Harps

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I know I'm a broken record on this but the run of the model we are worried about, namely GFS 12z, is showing snow in my area (and most areas in a east line from Kenmare to Belfast) from Saturday evening to Monday afternoon. That's a fair wad of snow forecast within the next 100 hours. All I will say is may all the "horror show" runs for the rest of the winter be as "bad" as it!

(and yes I know it won't snow from Sat evening to Monday, and I know Cork is more marginal than most, etc, etc, etc - but this is what the 12z GFS is showing....)

Hi-res GFS shows mostly dry conditions over the weekend, only useful as a rough guide but I've seen the word snowmageddon a few times and that it definitely wont be!

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=6&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=

Edit: Sorry didn't see maq's reply

Jaffusmaximus

A reminder of what Dec 2010 Polar Vortex looked like minus a SSW

maquiladora

ZX7R wrote: »

If we do get snow over the weekend and it is lying snow i would not be surprised to see some very cold temptress over the nights maybe -8/-12 this cold would make for some great battle ground snow events if milder air does move in from the west ,what are other peoples views on this

I dunno if we will see it get that cold this weekend. But yeah, a battlefield type event where we are on the winning side would be very nice.

maquiladora

ECM at 96 looks to be going the UKMO route more than GFS route. Too early to call though.

Weathering

It's even F-ing snow in the Lebanon...they can't drive for S in it tho haha
http://www.irelandsweather.com/forum/index.php?topic=3241.0&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Jaffusmaximus

Its down to 120 and 144, even it flattens get the toys ready to start throwing!

Celly Smunt

Weathering wrote: »

It's even F-ing snow in the Lebanon...they can't drive for S in it tho haha
http://www.irelandsweather.com/forum/index.php?topic=3241.0&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

at least there's nobody sitting there spinning their wheels in first gear for 20 minutes wondering why they arent getting anywhere.

maquiladora

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

Its down to 120 and 144, even it flattens get the toys ready to start throwing!

Better than the GFS at 120, not quite the same as the UKMO now though. 144 will be interesting.

Weathering

pmcmahon wrote: »

at least there's nobody sitting there spinning their wheels in first gear for 20 minutes wondering why they arent getting anywhere.

ahhhh right

maquiladora

In the near term, ECM doesn't look as cold for Ireland at the weekend as the GFS.

Jaffusmaximus

maquiladora wrote: »

In the near term, ECM doesn't look as cold for Ireland at the weekend as the GFS.

It has at 120 more of Ireland under -4 all academic at those timescales

Oarrack Bama

Excellent ECM so far. Risk prolonged sleet or snow on Sunday night/Monday.

144 going to be a cracker.

Jaffusmaximus

maquiladora

Snowfest for the UK at 144.

Thankfully, it's much better than the GFS, we live to fight another round. Would like to see those heights strengthen though!

Weathering

Jizzing on netweather. so what the hell then guys good ecm bad gfs
haha what is going on.

oterra

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

Game on!!

Graupel

ECM playing ball, Wouldn't mind being in the UK for that +144hr chart

maquiladora

Wow. Crazy chart.