LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

Harps

When did this thread become model discussion..?

Anyways, ECMWF sticking to its guns to 168h, still nothing major for us within somewhat reliable frames but interesting to see it unfold and plenty of potential. With so much variation though we're still no closer to knowing what to expect. Weekend looks less cold although again with so much variation and uncertainty that's still far from nailed

Wouldn't want to be working for the Met at the moment!

Jaffusmaximus

maquiladora wrote: »

Wow. Crazy chart.

MEIN GOTT IN HIMMEL!!!!

DAS IST SEHR GUT UBER CHART!!!!

cherryghost

Says a lot that even at 96hrs the ECM and GFS are almost in complete disagreement with one another.

opr

+168 is pretty spectacular.

Opr

Rougies

The -8 army in nice formation battle it out with Atlantic. Possible battleground snowfest here!

Oarrack Bama

JanuarySnowstor

Yes awesome ECM yet again this evening.
One wonders would uppers be that cold though in a southeasterly, somehow I doubt it!! (at 168hrs)
Should be a cracking FI, main things to watch for is the Greeny high exploding up, which it should do!

JJJJNR

noideawhatshappeningherebutreadingeverythingreallyfastanyway.

maquiladora

That ECM 168 = fantastic snow potential.

So all 3 main models totally different at 144. We are none the wiser really.

Speak Now

As ever the good stuff is in FI. Is it even worth looking at the pub run later ;-)

Super hoop

Will it or not.......gerrrrrrr

maquiladora

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

As ever the good stuff is in FI. Is it even worth looking at the pub run later ;-)

We need to get that blocking to get the good stuff. Any potential for this weekend is always going to be a bit of a shortlived bonus compared to the main event we are looking for.

opr

lol @ 192 Ridiculous run but fun to imagine

Opr

JanuarySnowstor

Bingo at 192 hrs, snow for all and record breaking cold has hit!!
Will it happen ??
If the wheel of fortune has any say we are due one!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

maquiladora wrote: »

We need to get that blocking to get the good stuff. Any potential for this weekend is always going to be a bit of a shortlived bonus compared to the main event we are looking for.

Im only looking at this weekend, god we have waited so long for even a small bit of cold !

Then when its cold at the weekend ill sit inside all warm and look at more models :pac:

Mr Bumble

Any time there's a hint of pessimism i just go back to MT's daily forecast ..... track what he's been saying since November and it all seems to playing out as ordered....

Speak Now

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Bingo at 192 hrs, snow for all and record breaking cold has hit!!
Will it happen ??
If the wheel of fortune has any say we are due one!

In the bag, only 8 days away :-)

compsys

Mr Bumble wrote: »

Any time there's a hint of pessimism i just go back to MT's daily forecast ..... track what he's been saying since November and it all seems to playing out as ordered....

No one can forecast that far ahead. Not even MT. Simple.

Musicman2000

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

In the bag, only 8 days away :-)

lol even Cork and Waterford would see an odd flake or 2:D

Harps

The weekend looks mostly dry regardless of how far west the cold air is pulled, maybe a few flurries on the east coast but the ECMWF run shows little to no snowfall anywhere and even the GFS with widespread -8 850hPa temps only shows a few light flurries. The most interesting thing to watch at the moment is whether that high builds north over Iceland or whether it all collapses over us, polar opposites in outcome depending in how that plays out

What we'd like to see


But if it collapses..

maquiladora

Harps wrote: »

The weekend looks mostly dry regardless of how far west the cold air is pulled, maybe a few flurries on the east coast but the ECMWF run shows little to no snowfall anywhere and even the GFS with widespread -8 850hPa temps only shows a few light flurries. The most interesting thing to watch at the moment is whether that high builds north over Iceland or whether it all collapses over us, polar opposites in outcome depending in how that plays out

What we'd like to see


But if it collapses..

Mirror images of each other at 168. Could hardly be more different. :P

FI charts certainly only to be used for entertainment purposes still!

compsys

From the Daily Mail website of all places! In fairness, if it's correct, then it's the simplest and best explanation of SSW that I've read so far.

CHANGES TO UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING COLD WEATHER

The extreme cold weather which is forecast to affect much of Britain next week is linked to changes in the upper atmosphere.

This is known as Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) which always attracts interest in the UK because it is often linked to the onset of cold weather.

It involves rapid warming in just a couple of days in the stratosphere, about 10 - 50km up.

Whenever we are affected by an SSW it brings easterly winds which alter the UK weather patterns. This is because we normally expect our weather to come from the west.

The easterly winds weaken areas of low pressure and move our jet stream south. This creates high pressure over the North Atlantic and blocks mild Atlantic air.

This drags in cold air from the continent to the east. More often than not a cold period follows an SSW.


Full article here:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2259376/All-Britain-prepare-snow-weekend-warns-Met-Office-rare-weather-phenomenon-set-cause-freeze.html

JanuarySnowstor

Well I usually criticise the Met but not tonight
Excellent forecast from Jean calling it exactly as it is and getting the risk of snow spot on by what the models show!

ECM is great, but are those heights over Greenland robust enough??
It isn't exactly bomb proof

Weathering

M.T just commented in models thread

maquiladora

Weathering wrote: »

M.T just commented in models thread

He is dead right with that caution. GFS, UKMO, ECM totally different by 144.

It only takes a fairly small change around day 4/5 to completely upgrade/downgrade what happens after that.

A really difficult time for forecasters.

Nabber

This happened in December

50miles here or there could leave Ireland with nothing. FI is what it is folks. We should enjoy the models but focus more on the weekend. No precip by the looks of the models. But cold none the less.

Lets see how the SSW filters down before we shake hands in this


Maq, take a break. You have answered everyones questions. Well done man, grab a beer and enjoy the colours like us laymen

Mr Cumulonimbus

MT over in "Up to 120 hours model discussion thread:

and we're seeing some indications of the same model role reversal that came before the December downgrades.

:eek:. NOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!

maquiladora

Nabber wrote: »

This happened in December

50miles here or there could leave Ireland with nothing. FI is what it is folks. We should enjoy the models but focus more on the weekend. No precip by the looks of the models. But cold none the less.

Lets see how the SSW filters down before we shake hands in this


Maq, take a break. You have answered everyones questions. Well done man, grab a beer and enjoy the colours like us laymen

Yeah I'm takin a break now. This is classic model watching though. Way more dramatic than 2009 and 2010. Even if we still end up with nothing at the end of it all, the rollercoaster has been fantastic.

Mr Bumble

compsys wrote: »

No one can forecast that far ahead. Not even MT. Simple.

MT 18/11/2012
Just a brief comment, on the longer-range, still holding to the idea of variable conditions in December, mild at times in January and colder late January into February. That is considerably different from some outlooks we have been hearing recently (not to say they are wrong, but here's a different theory of how the winter will go). There could be some severe wintry weather as suggested but I feel most of it will come later in the season.

Mr Bumble

Note the word theory compsys...