LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

pistolpetes11

Stick a fork in me , Im done ! another beauty from the ECM

omicron

Oarrack Bama wrote: »

Excellent ECM so far. Risk prolonged sleet or snow on Sunday night/Monday.

144 going to be a cracker.

Prolonged sleet, that sounds like fun :rolleyes: :pac:

maquiladora wrote: »

Yeah I'm takin a break now. This is classic model watching though. Way more dramatic than 2009 and 2010. Even if we still end up with nothing at the end of it all, the rollercoaster has been fantastic.

2010 was just boring, non stop perfect charts with practically no downgrades :P





Personally hoping for a massive turnaround on the ECM 0z with hairdryer sw winds purely for the entertainment value of the netweather model thread! :pac:

pistolpetes11

compsys wrote: »

No one can forecast that far ahead. Not even MT. Simple.

In fairness this winter has gone fairly like one of our MOST RESPECTED posters ever {MT} has suggested it would so far , so I give his comment a fair bit of weight.

compsys

Mr Bumble wrote: »

MT 18/11/2012
Just a brief comment, on the longer-range, still holding to the idea of variable conditions in December, mild at times in January and colder late January into February. That is considerably different from some outlooks we have been hearing recently (not to say they are wrong, but here's a different theory of how the winter will go). There could be some severe wintry weather as suggested but I feel most of it will come later in the season.

But what's your point? Mild at times in January. Variable conditions in December? Jesus, anyone could give that forecast and be right 99% of the time, especially for Ireland!

Admittedly, MT has really stuck his neck out by calling a cold spell in late January so we'll see what transpires.

I'm not knocking MT by the way. I do love his in-depth and detailed forecasts each day, but no one can accurately predict what's going to happen weather wise beyond 7 days or so with any degree of consistency.

It's worth remembering that MT consistently forecast deep, cold weather out in FI last year and it never came close to materialising. I remember because I read his forecast each day longing and hoping for snow!

Sometimes you get it right - sometimes you get it wrong.

corksurfer2005

omicron wrote: »

Prolonged sleet, that sounds like fun :rolleyes: :pac:



2010 was just boring, non stop perfect charts with practically no downgrades :P





Personally hoping for a massive turnaround on the ECM 0z with hairdryer sw winds purely for the entertainment value of the netweather model thread! :pac:

I feel the same haha, its a no lose situation now as far as I'm concerned.

We'll either get something wintry or witness a complete collapse of society over on Netweather. They'll be like Lemmings waiting to throw themselves over the edge if this doesn't deliver after so much promise.

Mountainsandh

Musicman2000 wrote: »

lol even Cork and Waterford would see an odd flake or 2:D

Wait for the pics before you make fun of the snowy South East, wait for the picsssss......

Weathering

GEM (Canadian) model not to be dismissed either. Well established block with a cold and snowy E'ly at 144hrs http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1441.gif …

Trotter

Im not sure if this question is in the right place, so sorry mods if its not, but do the algorithms that generate the long term forecasts; say 192+ factor statistics and probability into the algorithm?

For example, how many times do we see the FI charts forecasting cold and snow for Ireland, only for it to be downgraded with 3 days to go. Is the fact that statistically for my area for example, lying snow at sea level is a 1 in 6 to 8 year occurrence, factored into the forecast computer software?

pauldry

Busy here isn't it
Must be something in the air
Read met forecast and it's longer than normal.
Snow only has 4 letters

My forecast is snowy Sunday and Monday

Weathering

Mountainsandh wrote: »

Wait for the pics before you make fun of the snowy South East, wait for the picsssss......

Freakiest picture ever

Mountainsandh

Weathering wrote: »

Freakiest picture ever

I know, I quite like it, it's like me, loooking outtt... of my windowww... for snoooww... You wouldn't want any neighbours to pass by and see me like that. Not that I've many neighbours.

Tabnabs

A lot of track left on the roller coaster folks, all we can do is

Mr Bumble

Lawdy but you're trigger happy compsys....are ya excited??? I simply observed at one of the many points of uncertainty in this thread that when I see signs of pessimism, I peruse MT again since I have some faith in his theories on weather and in this case, his outlook back in November has been matched quite closely by events. The quotation I used was one of several in which he offered his take on what was likely to happen. So what's your point??

Rebelbrowser

Trotter wrote: »

Im not sure if this question is in the right place, so sorry mods if its not, but do the algorithms that generate the long term forecasts; say 192+ factor statistics and probability into the algorithm?

For example, how many times do we see the FI charts forecasting cold and snow for Ireland, only for it to be downgraded with 3 days to go. Is the fact that statistically for my area for example, lying snow at sea level is a 1 in 6 to 8 year occurrence, factored into the forecast computer software?

Have often wondered that too.

Weathering

ECMWF seasonal model updated for Jan and covering J/F/M it has high pressure to the N of the UK and low pressure to the S. -NAO pattern

The ECM seasonal update for Jan is a complete reversal of pressure trends. Previous months showed low pressure to the N and NW (+NAO)

Mr Bumble

Weathering wrote: »

Freakiest picture ever

is that leo varadakar in a onesie??:eek:

Oarrack Bama

I think ECM is close to having this nailed. Ensembles just out. Check out the mean

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=0&type=1

It's coming folks:D

BEASTERLY

Oarrack Bama wrote: »

I think ECM is close to having this nailed. Ensembles just out. Check out the mean

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=0&type=1

It's coming folks:D

ECM and GEFS ens are good. ECM op good. ECM control good. GFS op bad. GFS control ok. UKMO op good. GEM op good. JMA op bad.

maquiladora

Oarrack Bama wrote: »

I think ECM is close to having this nailed. Ensembles just out. Check out the mean

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=0&type=1

It's coming folks:D

For the whole country to be under -4 to -5 uppers at 240 hours on the mean chart is a very good sign.

But until we get agreement between the main models this is not nailed. Hopefully the 18Z GFS will help.

Slashermcguirk

Feels Baltic outside at the moment!

up for anything

The timing is not the only factor to consider, people would be wise to prepare for a wintry period of some length given the combination of evident risk and ongoing stratospheric warming events.

I took the above out of MTC's daily forecast. Does anyone have an idea of how long some length is and exactly what sort of wintry is meant?

I have ancient (don't tell my mother I called her that) and not terribly well parents who live miles from anywhere on the brow of a hill on the coast and would like an idea of what to prepare them for or whether it would be better to pull them out of there altogether and bring them to stay in town for the duration.

emo72

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Feels Baltic outside at the moment!

im in lucan and just in the door, and it hasnt felt that cold out in a long time. feels like somethings coming.

Weathering

The EC Det model has complete support from the EC ENS mean yet again with a cold, blocked pattern out to 240hrs (Sat 19th)

maquiladora

up for anything wrote: »

I took the above out of MTC's daily forecast. Does anyone have an idea of how long some length is and exactly what sort of wintry is meant?

I have ancient (don't tell my mother I called her that) and not terribly well parents who live miles from anywhere on the brow of a hill on the coast and would like an idea of what to prepare them for or whether it would be better to pull them out of there altogether and bring them to stay in town for the duration.

It's just impossible to know really. We don't even know yet if this will happen or not so it's too early to be worried about anything yet. If the models firm up over the next day or so and it starts to look certain then it might be time to consider it, but don't worry yet.

Harry Deerpark

emo72 wrote: »

im in lucan and just in the door, and it hasnt felt that cold out in a long time. feels like somethings coming.

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Feels Baltic outside at the moment!

We feel cold now because our bodies are used to mild January we've had so far. It's only -1*C, give it a few days of this weather and you'll get used to it.

I remember in 2010, I didn't feel the cold until it was -8*C because I was so used to it.

Jaffusmaximus

GFS OF THE CENTURY COMING UP!

We're somewhere between hope and despair, will this house of cards come down?

Mr Cumulonimbus

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

GFS OF THE CENTURY COMING UP!

We're somewhere between hope and despair, will this house of cards come down?

Model watching, it can be such a cruel sport..............

Lagoona Blue

Hi guys love following the thread , a lot of late nights lately ! Thanks for explaining the models as they come . It seems there's a lot of confusion whether we'll get this cold spell or not , rollercoaster. Let's hope

Lucreto

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

GFS OF THE CENTURY COMING UP!

We're somewhere between hope and despair, will this house of cards come down?

If it turns out to be bad there will be plenty of this happening

pistolpetes11

Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81
Just telling it as it is but the 12z EC ENS are the coldest of the last few days. Pretty much unanimously cold throughout next week now.