LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

maquiladora

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81
Just telling it as it is but the 12z EC ENS are the coldest of the last few days. Pretty much unanimously cold throughout next week now.

Yesterday it was all eyes on the ECM. Tonight it will be all eyes on the GFS. Though I suspect if it does backtrack it will happen on the 0Z rather than 18Z since the 0Z gets fed extra atmosphere data. Just a guess though.

Luisport

Matthew Hugo‏@MattHugo81

Just telling it as it is but the 12z EC ENS are the coldest of the last few days. Pretty much unanimously cold throughout next week now.

Deep Easterly

Oarrack Bama wrote: »

It's coming folks:D

Only a small, trivial concern but I think the ECMWF 12z general incorporates a lot of its 00z analysis data into each of its run. I have noticed over the last while that the 12z ens tend to vary more against each other than do each of the subsequent 00z ens.

Having said that, the 12z ECM ens are not really showing anything significantly different to earlier runs.

aurora 527

Lagoona Blue wrote: »

Hi guys love following the thread , a lot of late nights lately ! Thanks for explaining the models as they come . It seems there's a lot of confusion whether we'll get this cold spell or not , rollercoaster. Let's hope

Goes for me too, don't often post but love reading all the various opinions and explanations.. all through the year.

Jaffusmaximus

Hang in there SNOW BUNNIES

Weathering

Good watch lads. Alex Deakin from the BBC talking about SNOW http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/20964928

maquiladora

Time for a cup of tea before the madness.

pistolpetes11

maquiladora wrote: »

Time for a cup of tea before the madness.

A Cup of tea , Think Im going to need a can for this one

leahyl

Jean on RTW now!

Jeez what a boring forecast!!

Mr Cumulonimbus

And off we go. 18Z starts it's roll-out.

Mycroft H

flanzer

leahyl wrote: »

Jean on RTW now!

Jeez what a boring forecast!!

Thank jebus she's a looker. It was a conservative estimate at best

Oarrack Bama

leahyl wrote: »

Jean on RTW now!

Jeez what a boring forecast!!

I think you will find most men find her forecasts quite interesting. She is like a glittery novel christmas thingy on the screen.

tomcosgrave

Pick a ramp - any ramp! :D:D

Weathering

damianslaw

Model Forum Host

5,206 posts
Posted 7 minutes ago
Sticking to reliable timeframe which is Sunday -given the uncertainties from Monday onwards, turning much colder everywhere - the cold is already in place over the northern half of the country - we struggled to make 3 degrees today under fog..

The Fax charts show the sub 528 dam air touching the east anglian coast by friday evening, then hugging the east coast of the country on Saturday before sweeping westwards to cover the whole country on Sunday, any precipitation should by Sunday be of a very wintry flavour even on very low ground, but to early to speculate where the snow might fall. Dewpoints will be low thanks to cold dry air from the east which will increase the chances of rain turning quickly to snow in central/southern parts on Saturday especially if the precipitation is intense.. we saw snowfall under warmer uppers back in late October, this is by no means a marginal situation.

Looking into early next week, GFS is out on a limb at present, and I suspect the 18z will follow the UKMO and ECM output, the jet is forecasted to move on a southerly course, I can't see it ramping into gear to our NW, this goes against preety much all the other model ensemble output which continue to suggest heights building very strongly to the NW in reaction to the propogation of SSW, into the lower atmosphere. Interesting to note BBC are now making hints about the start of a possible very cold prolonged spell, even our local NW forecaster Diane who is a mild worshipper said early next week could deliver very low temperatures - she looked like she wanted to leave the country...

All eyes on the 18z and then how the models play with the shortwave feature progged to develop between Iceland and Norway, will this feature track south over the country or more on a SE track down the N Sea, the former is suggested by the ECM which would mean a spell of snow for many followed by a bitter easterly, the latter shown by UKMO suggests snow showers down the eastern side of the country possibly longer outbreaks of snow, with a NE flow behind - either way very cold weather would ensue, the complete opposite to GFS.

Have to say I'm so pleased we have lost the rainy dank dull mild southwesterlies, which up until the end of last week have made the last 3 weeks of model watching very painful and uninspiring.

up for anything

maquiladora wrote: »

It's just impossible to know really. We don't even know yet if this will happen or not so it's too early to be worried about anything yet. If the models firm up over the next day or so and it starts to look certain then it might be time to consider it, but don't worry yet.

Thanks. I should know not to get excited or worried about stuff like that by now unless it's actually here but ....

Graupel

Looking good so far at +27




:pac:

Min

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi My gosh, this is going to cause unspeakable hardship in much of Russia and Europe.Severe cold on way,pray they r ready

Graupel

Min wrote: »

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi My gosh, this is going to cause unspeakable hardship in much of Russia and Europe.Severe cold on way,pray they r ready

Wouldn't be like Joe to ramp up the cold....

pauldry

Poor Jean.

Met Eireann are too big and relied upon to be able to stick their necks out and say "wahay folks, look at the models now. Snow for sure" Farmers and working people would complain if it was a tinsy bit wrong on National TV.

Maybe they should have a TV red button on RTE where boardies would talk about long range possibilities weatherwise.

However Jean please feel free to join boards and vent your opinion. You could call yourself winterminx or something like that.

Weathering

Min wrote: »

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi My gosh, this is going to cause unspeakable hardship in much of Russia and Europe.Severe cold on way,pray they r ready

He said in an earlier tweet he was scared for Europe

Also he went bananas about how bad it was going to get for the Uk in December
He is fond of sensational statements

Jaffusmaximus

Min wrote: »

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi My gosh, this is going to cause unspeakable hardship in much of Russia and Europe.Severe cold on way,pray they r ready

He may be a Bastardi, But he's are Bastardi!

Jaffusmaximus

The GFS is not going to give up without a fight I feel

opr

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

The GFS is not going to give up without a fight I feel

Lets hope it's about to get knocked out then.

Opr

Oarrack Bama

This should be better on the GFS.

pistolpetes11

Graupel wrote: »

Wouldn't be like Joe to ramp up the cold....

Love the name Graupel

Hope we have more snow than Graupel

Spindle

I think we need to push in a bit, 400 people in here waiting as the model roller coaster rolls out another set of charts. Which way will they go??? Sick bags may be needed in case of a poor run.

Mr Cumulonimbus

-8 uppers not as far in over Ireland at +78hrs compared to previous run.

downwiththatsor

Mr Cumulonimbus wrote: »

-8 uppers not as far in over Ireland at +78hrs compared to previous run.

And also at +84

maquiladora

Critical moments coming up.