LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

pistolpetes11

Good pint made by one of the lads on NW ,


How can the shortwave be going ENE when it's integrated into the jet stream looping south to the west of the UK ?

icesnowfrost

The GFS is on its own so come on dont loose faith

Kippure

Nice Easterly for saturday. Once the cold is in, no one knows whats after that.








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nacho libre

i have a nasty feeling when I log on tomorrow it'll be the ecm that will have backtracked. The only crumb of comfort would be it backs up m.t craniums forecast to date.

pistolpetes11

maquiladora wrote: »

This is actually a downgrade from what was already a very poor 12Z.

Also this is now the 4th GFS run in a row showing this idea, very consistent.

Is the ECM not being consistent also ? Its madness at this stage :eek:

Jaffusmaximus

maquiladora wrote: »

This is actually a downgrade from what was already a very poor 12Z.

Also this is now the 4th GFS run in a row showing this idea, very consistent.

We can only hope that the ECM and UKMO models the closer to Europe better that the GFS, the GFS refuses to pull heights up to Iceland for some reason, It just cant seem to see a reason to!

Min

I say forget the weather, the battle of the weather models is fascinating at the moment.

Weathering

Musicman2000 wrote: »

It was god in early December, i just have bad feeling we could see a different ecm 0z in the morning:rolleyes:

Yeah in December. I get what you're saying but this is January.
The GFS was also the first to show this cold spell and now it has pulled away so if the cold spell does not materialise it was wrong to begin with. No other model is backing it up

I'm not saying what will be right or what will be wrong(how the hell would I know) but it is the only model showing the breakdown. If it was only the GFS showing the cold we would be in a worse situation and I thought MT rated ECM higher than other models an example of this would be in reference to Hurricane Sandy he mentioned it was the best and used this as an example when monitoring possible wind events as the best guidance to go on

John.Icy

Ignore the GFS because it's not showing an ECM solution at your peril.

BEASTERLY

maquiladora wrote: »

This is actually a downgrade from what was already a very poor 12Z.

Also this is now the 4th GFS run in a row showing this idea, very consistent.

Same could be said of the ECM and UKMO. Im clinging to the hope that the 12z ens backtracked to mostly favour greenland blocking or a high over us, very few backed the op.

kennyb3

Unfortunately i feel like nacho i know whats coming next/ when i wake up tomorrow unfortunately. Night all

maquiladora

John.Icy wrote: »

Ignore the GFS because it's not showing an ECM solution at your peril.

0Z's will tell the tale I think.

ECM has had some howlers recently, remember last weekend when it went for a beasterly this weekend for 2 runs then just dropped it. ECM is a great model but somebody has to be wrong....

hawkwing

FINNER DONEGAL(A) SE 09 LIGHT SNOW 1 97 Trace 1019

This is probably incorrect too,(hope it's not the nearest we get!:o)

Mr Cumulonimbus

Struggling to cope now. Can't take too much more of the rollercoaster.....

maquiladora

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Same could be said of the ECM and UKMO. Im clinging to the hope that the 12z ens backtracked to mostly favour greenland blocking or a high over us, very few backed the op.

Ens will be very interesting, we'll see what the trend is.

maw368

BEASTERLY wrote: »

The GFS is on its own. Didnt have the support of its control or ensembles on the 12z.

But didn't you say earlier that you expect this run to stay stubborn and that it would change in the morning? So by your own account we still could get the GFS to switch by tomorrow, and we still have most of the charts favouring cols and snow anyway so still time to remain positive.

Invincible

Min wrote: »

I say forget the weather, the battle of the weather models is fascinating at the moment.

+1
Who's your favourite??

nacho libre

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

We can only hope that the ECM and UKMO models the closer to Europe better that the GFS, the GFS refuses to pull heights up to Iceland for some reason, It just cant seem to see a reason to!

i've heard it said over on netweather that the gfs is better at handling events to north west. i don't mean to sound like a broken record, but i'm getting a horrible feeling of de ja vu over this- the gfs picks up a signal, sticks steadfast to it, with the other models eventually backing it after initial reluctance.

anyway i must be off. hopefully tomorrow i'll be reading about how wrong i was. *fingers crossed**

Eden3

Well I'm stocking up tomorrow - tinned EVERYTHING for the Pantry! Only thing for stoves in (hopefully) expected temps is coal, mixed with timber to keep it steady! Thermals at the ready ........:D

kingshankly

Eden3 wrote: »

Well I'm stocking up tomorrow - tinned EVERYTHING for the Pantry! Only thing for stoves in (hopefully) expected temps is coal, mixed with timber to keep it steady! Thermals at the ready ........:D

Sunblock you might need

maquiladora

This might be counted as strawclutched but a few posts on NW reminded me of this.

For the GFS, look at a couple days of 00Z and 12Z runs for consistency. Avoid the 06Z and 18Z runs when 00 or 12 is available; in the U.S. these runs don't include the weather balloon network data (balloons are only sent up twice per day), and are therefore radically different and more likely to have bias.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/why-are-the-models-so-inaccurate/18097

Will it make a difference? I dunno, but something to consider. The 12Z wasn't exactly good either, but it wasn't as bad as the 06Z and this 18Z.

BEASTERLY

I dont think the GFS has been consistent though. Consistent in bringing mild, yes. Consistent with the synoptics, no.

12z


18z

John.Icy

maquiladora wrote: »

0Z's will tell the tale I think.

ECM has had some howlers recently, remember last weekend when it went for a beasterly this weekend for 2 runs then just dropped it. ECM is a great model but somebody has to be wrong....

Yeah tomorrow is D-day for sure. Something will give. Hopefully it's GFS that will give in, but I have a bad feeling.

Min

Invincible wrote: »

+1
Who's your favourite??

I always look at the GFS first, as to the solution to the weather models and who wins, I have no idea.

Jaffusmaximus

Well one of the models will have serious egg on their face! Pity we don't have a poll up to see who backs what!

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

Will it make a difference? I dunno, but something to consider. The 12Z wasn't exactly good either, but it wasn't as bad as the 06Z and this 18Z.

If the GFS wins out on this one, then I think it will become the model to consider in future winter scenarios. Not the first time this model has done this and been successful, though historically it has done some massive backtracks also!

Damn it, I'm getting a headache!

Weathering

UKMO 120hr fax out and that's quite an impressive setup for Monday - http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif?09-12 …

Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81

maquiladora

So who is setting their alarm for 3:30?

pauldry

Ive renamed GFS Go For Snow

Super hoop

maquiladora wrote: »

So who is setting their alarm for 3:30?

Might just stay awake...