LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

BEASTERLY

pauldry wrote: »

Ive renamed GFS Go For Snow

ECM- Extreme Cold Mayhem

rickdangerouss

Sorry if this has been posted already, so many pages has been created, model watching not page watching.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/20964928, Thanks to Matt H for the tweet.

Looking like no snow for Ireland, UK has a better chance. Going off what video above explained.

Stingray music..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E06cNv55jTs

Blizzard 2010

GFS to change course in the next 24hrs. Maybe the model hasn't taken the SSW into account. My bet is on the cold for next week!!

Rougies

pauldry wrote: »

Ive renamed GFS Go For Snow

ECM = Extraordinarily Complex Mathematics
GFS = Guessing Forecast System

I know who I'm backing

opr

This post from Icy Gale on netweather sums up the situation well. Certainly if I was placing bets I'd be all in on GFS backing the other models.

Icy Gale wrote:

Whilst it would be foolish to completely dismiss the GFS it practically has every other model against it at the moment! The rock solid ECM had full support from the ensemble suite with little cause for any concern, we also have a host of other model guidance saying no to the GFS, which makes it very hard for me to believe they are all wrong.

Latest model verification stats place the GFS in 3rd place I believe, so, there could be a clue in that fact with the GFS ready to be utterly put to shame by some much lesser rated models! OR the GFS is about to claim it's biggest crowning glory ever..... I certainly wouldn't be putting my money on that that's for sure, yes I may lose my money but using some logic in this situation then the GFS is standing alone when compared with the general majority probably 95% at least stacked against it.

Hopefully good news tomorrow but at least we should know one way or another.

Opr

leahyl

This is unbelievably frustrating stuff!!!!

maquiladora

Time for a snooze.

BEASTERLY

maquiladora wrote: »

Time for a snooze.

The GEFS is coming out!!!!!! A truly bizare array of scenarios in the ens. A few support the op. A few support the ECM op! The rest are a real variety. Not a bad set. But not great either.

rickdangerouss

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

Updated and no word of snow at all and mild by next monday.

off to sleep after the next set.

"There will be more outbreaks of rain and sleet on Monday although parts of the east and south will remain drier. Highs of 4 to 7 degrees in moderate northwest winds. The cold and frosty nights will continue on Monday night with a widespread frost."

delw

leahyl wrote: »

This is unbelievably frustrating stuff!!!!

Agreed but it's fascinating model watching

Spindle

rickdangerouss wrote: »

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

Updated and no word of snow at all and mild by next monday.

off to sleep after the next set.

"There will be more outbreaks of rain and sleet on Monday although parts of the east and south will remain drier. Highs of 4 to 7 degrees in moderate northwest winds. The cold and frosty nights will continue on Monday night with a widespread frost."

I wonder if the next ECMWF run will support this new outlook, they have changed that outlook so much today, I think it is better at this stage if you want to know the weather just stick your head out of the window.

BEASTERLY

Spindle wrote: »

I wonder if the next ECMWF run will support this new outlook, they have changed that outlook so much today, I think it is better at this stage if you want to know the weather just stick your head out of the window.

But that forecast is just what the 12z ECM shows.

pistolpetes11

fergieweather(ian ferguson)


Posted 4 minutes ago


Interesting snow distribution/amounts prognosis from UKMO for Sat from UK4 and areal probability for Mon via EC & MOGREPS. Sorry I can't share these but suspect quite a few will be happy with Sat output, e.g. Cotswolds, Salisbury Plain, W Downs etc.... but we await NAE and UKV with interest. Monday much lower confidence of course, but potentially higher impact based on > 5cm snow progs from both EC and MOGREPS. Chief is stressing how models regularly struggle historically with developments that evolve from Greenland and that's why we are seeing such divergent solutions.

Oscar Bravo

Love this thread. Now with all the choping and changing lets here from Met Eireann on RTE Radio 1/Sky 0160 for the general and sea area forecast.

BEASTERLY

GFS op and control very much on the mild side in the medium term.

pistolpetes11

The reason behind this thread is to have a bit of fun and a ramp, if you dont like it dont post in it , more serious discussion will be held in the model threads

Larbre34

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Eh, i presume the only model you've looked at is the GFS op then?

Of course not, but the ECM is the one flip flopping, youd be as well off binning it and nowcasting come Sunday

on the subject of the ECM, Met E left looking very foolish yet again with these slavish vacillating ECM 5 day updates. I can only conclude the Met lost too many senior professionals in the mass retirement of the public service as there is no hint of moderation, experience or wisdom in what theyre producing. If you dont know, just SAY you dont ****ing know.

BEASTERLY

Larbre34 wrote: »

Of course not, but the ECM is the one flip flopping, youd be as well off binning it and nowcasting come Sunday

on the subject of the ECM, Met E left looking very foolish yet again with these slavish vacillating ECM 5 day updates. I can only conclude the Met lost too many senior professionals in the mass retirement of the public service as there is no hint of moderation, experience or wisdom in what theyre producing. If you dont know, just SAY you dont ****ing know.

Nope, the GFS has flipped jsut as much recently. ECM has very good ensemble support. It also has support of most other model output. The GFS has very poor ensemble support. Stratospheric conditions and the upcoming MJO phase 7 favour Greenland heights.

In the morning we may just see the GFS op solution across the board. I dont know for sure but i think the ECM is more plausible. You seem to be getting very frustrated?

ME will put out what looks like the most likely forecast. Why would they say its going to be a return to raging atlantic if thats the least likely. Can I ask why you think the GFS op is correct?

pistolpetes11

Larbre34 wrote: »

Of course not, but the ECM is the one flip flopping, youd be as well off binning it and nowcasting come Sunday

on the subject of the ECM, Met E left looking very foolish yet again with these slavish vacillating ECM 5 day updates. I can only conclude the Met lost too many senior professionals in the mass retirement of the public service as there is no hint of moderation, experience or wisdom in what theyre producing. If you dont know, just SAY you dont ****ing know.

The ECM is rock solid with full support form its members ,

The GFS has flipped from a cold scenario to what it is showing , all hanging on the balance of a shortwave

The ECM flipped from a somewhat milder outcome to what its showing now

The main difference here is when the GFS was showing the cold it did not have the support of its members , although it has some some support at the moment there still split .

They were both on board the cold for a few runs and then the GFS decided against it.

The ECM has full support from its members ,

I have to say the rant about MET E shows you dont really know or understand exactly what you are talking about.

Nabber

Larbre34 wrote: »

on the subject of the ECM, Met E left looking very foolish yet again with these slavish vacillating ECM 5 day updates. I can only conclude the Met lost too many senior professionals in the mass retirement of the public service as there is no hint of moderation, experience or wisdom in what theyre producing. If you dont know, just SAY you dont ****ing know.

That's a bit heavy for a ramping thread

We need to wait, reading these low res outputs is fun, but it's like playing poker with funny money. No one is serious and everyone has a laugh.

Could be mild, could be could... Either way it's a lot more interesting as of late, this what we call weather foreplay.


Oh and give Met E a break. It's easier to predict bowel movements than the weather.

BEASTERLY

Larbre34 wrote: »

Of course not, but the ECM is the one flip flopping, youd be as well off binning it and nowcasting come Sunday

on the subject of the ECM, Met E left looking very foolish yet again with these slavish vacillating ECM 5 day updates. I can only conclude the Met lost too many senior professionals in the mass retirement of the public service as there is no hint of moderation, experience or wisdom in what theyre producing. If you dont know, just SAY you dont ****ing know.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7YoY1rGFeVs

:P

123 LC

is it the ECM or GFS thats more in favour of snow at the moment?

-on a side-note, should all this talk of models not be in the model thread and not the ramping thread? i'm sure there are many like me...

Snowmaker

God I love roller-coasters! Reading every day what may or may not happen - will it/won't it?... and great input & explanations from the more seasoned and more learned contributors.

I want snow more than anyone else. And for anyone who's getting too frustrated at the charts/models changing too much beyond 96+hrs.... here's a website where all answers are immediately available (will it/won't it?) - just type your specific question. It pretty much sums up just how difficult it is to predict weather beyond a certain time-frame - the randomness of shaking the ball, and the chaos happening inside it, can be equated to the many variables involved in producing a model run ... beyond 120hrs use this forecaster 4 times a day: www.ask8ball.net - it will raise your hopes, and then crush them just as quickly, without having to concentrate too much

It will even tell you if it's going to snow in your back garden - which, I'm pleased to say.. it will definitely snow in mine on 12th February @ 9am... Cork will miss-out this year though, and only Sponges shall be frozen in Galway :pac:

skirtgirl

Looks promising for snow on my phone from Monday! Could be just the beginning

yorlum11

skirtgirl wrote: »

Looks promising for snow on my phone from Monday! Could be just the beginning

Make sure the phone is insured!!!

pauldry

I think the weather from next Sunday onwards currently reads

Unsettled with maximum temperatures of 1 to 13c

Outbreaks of rain or snow and frost

Also wind ,hail, graupel, weather, climate and forecasting.. oh and sleet.

John.Icy

18z ensembles are dire tbh....we even have lost the colder uppers for Sat/Sun on the op. Very few ensembles dip much below -5 850, not great all for anyone who wants a proper cold snap. Then again, ECM 12z uppers wern't much below -5 either, so either way if I'm honest we have went backwards almost across the board in terms of severe cold.

However, if anything like the ECM 12z does happen, chances for some huge snowfests!

icesnowfrost

dodderangler

skirtgirl wrote: »

Looks promising for snow on my phone from Monday! Could be just the beginning

Yeah I checked mine earlier aswell and decided to get out the insulated hunting boots their great for the snow and for walking on the path if there's ice

derekon

Well folks, looks like MT Cranium was correct in his views. The 0z ECM has just rolled out and following yesterdays stunning 12z from the ECM (which showed -8 uppers over Ireland for nearly a week) ........................the whole thing has gone tits up with no prospect of snow this weekend and the Atlantic winning.

What to say?

D