LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

Jaffusmaximus

derekon wrote: »

Well folks, looks like MT Cranium was correct in his views. The 0z ECM has just rolled out and following yesterdays stunning 12z from the ECM (which showed -8 uppers over Ireland for nearly a week) ........................the whole thing has gone tits up with no prospect of snow this weekend and the Atlantic winning.

What to say?

D

You only seem to pop up when something mild is maybe showing on the models just like a wee daffodill :-)

derekon

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

You only seem to pop up when something mild is maybe showing on the models just like a wee daffodill :-)

Thanks for the compliment My weather preference by the way is cold and snowy, not mild

D

However a disastrous ECM this morning for Ireland's snow prospects at the weekend.

Jaffusmaximus

derekon wrote: »

Thanks for the compliment My weather preference by the way is cold and snowy, not mild

D

However a disastrous ECM this morning for Ireland's snow prospects at the weekend.

Although wobbely all charts can go anyway after 96 hrs, we could still be right in the middle of a warm cold battleground, but a brief mild blip is bound to happen somewhere down the line.

kstand

Massive result for GFS - stuck to its guns all trough and now the others are following suit.
In future it may prove the defacto standard when models are being consulted. Big back-track from ECM.

derekon

kstand wrote: »

Massive result for GFS - stuck to its guns all trough and now the others are following suit.
In future it may prove the defacto standard when models are being consulted. Big back-track from ECM.

I agree Kstand - I think that has been the lesson of this winter. The GFS picked up the mild signal correctly back in December, defying the other models. It has done so again and would appear to be right.

A major coup for the GFS which should be taken more seriously going forward, particularly in terms of winter weather.

D

Reckless Abandonment

I think it someone here said. If one model says zonal, we get zonal.... GFS first spotted cold and everyone else followed, then it found mild (ish) now it looks like its setting the trend again...

Really hoping MT is on to something, for Feb...

john mayo 10

derekon wrote: »

I agree Kstand - I think that has been the lesson of this winter. The GFS picked up the mild signal correctly back in December, defying the other models. It has done so again and would appear to be right.

A major coup for the GFS which should be taken more seriously going forward, particularly in terms of winter weather.

D

A major coup for the GFS as you stated all right.Its a pity though cos there was great potential in the ECM charts

kstand

john mayo 10 wrote: »

A major coup for the GFS as you stated all right.Its a pity though cos there was great potential in the ECM charts

It is a pity but people cant blame GFS, all it did was give us the most accurate forecast, however much people didnt want it. Crazy what was going on the last few days with peol,e discarding it in favour of ECM purely because ECM gave them what they wnated to see.
A long way to go yet, we're only coming to the middle of winter now.

Jaffusmaximus

kstand wrote: »

It is a pity but people cant blame GFS, all it did was give us the most accurate forecast, however much people didnt want it. Crazy what was going on the last few days with peol,e discarding it in favour of ECM purely because ECM gave them what they wnated to see.
A long way to go yet, we're only coming to the middle of winter now.

Its not over yet by a long shot. Still another few runs to go before people should start writing off models. Its a mess that can go anywhere.

kstand

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

Its not over yet by a long shot. Still another few runs to go before people should start writing off models. Its a mess that can go anywhere.

If youy had to put your shirt on it, which way would you see it going?

Jaffusmaximus

kstand wrote: »

If youy had to put your shirt on it, which way would you see it going?

More of a transitional battle between mild and cold over us until cold winning out. The models will end up meeting somewhere in the middle for now until the cold wins out. But nothing really mild for the foreseeable future. Could be wrong as a lot of people will be over the coming days.

john mayo 10

kstand wrote: »

If youy had to put your shirt on it, which way would you see it going?

Very hard to call which way it will go but its a lot more interesting at the moment and with the effects of SSW to come into play yet you would have yo fancy a decent cold spell

Slashermcguirk

The models seem to change every day so who is to say they wont change again. Still only Thursday morning, a lot could change in the next few days. That being said odds are always against Ireland and uk getting much snow.

munsterlegend

A lot of conflicting views as to the model output. Unless very clear cross model agreement exists within 48 hours and even 24 period there is always uncertainty in this part of the world for any cold spell as a small change can scupper everything. The UK Met Office are sitting on the fence and Met Eireann have not gone beyond Monday which is wise in the circumstances. The effects of the much referred to SSW are keeping peoples hopes alive but this is very uncertain if it will drive anything in our direction.

kstand

john mayo 10 wrote: »

Very hard to call which way it will go but its a lot more interesting at the moment and with the effects of SSW to come into play yet you would have yo fancy a decent cold spell

I read somewhere a couple of days ago that the SSW's full effects would not be felt for a full 10 days or there abouts - which could tie in with MTs forecast for the end of the month.

Yes, quite a lot of variables but we are now getting into a more reliable timeframe. We should know a fair deal more by midnight either way.

kennyb3

Guessed i'd wake up to this situation. The GFS seems to track that atlantic battlefront better for some reason.

Big let down.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Come one lads, we are used to this by now !

Personally I am excited about the SSW filtering down, I am expecting big changes in the next while

Exciting times !

In any case, if it snowed none of us would see it cause we would all be on here looking at charts for more snow :pac:

pistolpetes11

Posted this in the model forum , but think some could do with looking at this again before calling it :

Looking through this , people saying the ECM has massively backtracked I think are wrong

ECM 24



ECM 48



ECM 96



ECM 120


__________________

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Good post PP

I am not really seeing the doom and gloom when looking at the charts !

Plus the GFS still has the brief eastern seaboard cold snap for the weekend.

Thats all we can hope for now, anything out further than that is up in the air of you will excuse the pun :pac:

Jaffusmaximus

t|nt|n wrote: »

Good post PP

I am not really seeing the doom and gloom when looking at the charts !

Plus the GFS still has the brief eastern seaboard cold snap for the weekend.

Thats all we can hope for now, anything out further than that is up in the air of you will excuse the pun :pac:

Can't see the forest for the trees the big picture is yet to be fully revealed, hang tight

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

Can't see the forest for the trees the big picture is yet to be fully revealed, hang tight

Its is very difficult to work out what is going on for new people here, thats whats sad.

No more knee jerk reactions guys !

Rebelbrowser

I've no scientific basis for this at all (but this is the ramping thread)...

I've a niggling feeling that in a further hilarious twist the 6z GFS might look colder again. We will know in an hour....

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I've no scientific basis for this at all (but this is the ramping thread)...

I've a niggling feeling that in a further hilarious twist the 6z GFS might look colder again. We will know in an hour....

All part of the fun like !

And if it goes wrong then I declare the 06z as useful as a chocolate teapot ! ha

munsterlegend

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I've no scientific basis for this at all (but this is the ramping thread)...

I've a niggling feeling that in a further hilarious twist the 6z GFS might look colder again. We will know in an hour....

It may well do. I read somewhere that this run and the 18z GFS are not as reliable due to Balloon data not being gathered for these runs but are for the other two. It won't be definitive if it does go colder but just continue the uncertainty!!

The Ferrit

This thread is more like the bi-Polar express than the Polar express!

gbee

Min wrote: »

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi My gosh, this is going to cause unspeakable hardship in much of Russia and Europe.Severe cold on way,pray they r ready

Pray has proven to be a fruitless exercise TBH. In the past the Russians have taken advantage of severe winters to defeat and slaughter Western Armies, and event their machines could run on fuels and oils that just froze in enemy tanks.

Hmmm, I've a feeling they can take good care of themselves.

Rebelbrowser

munsterlegend wrote: »

It may well do. I read somewhere that this run and the 18z GFS are not as reliable due to Balloon data not being gathered for these runs but are for the other two. It won't be definitive if it does go colder but just continue the uncertainty!!

Lets save that pearl for if / when it shows mild weather. Then we can write it off on that basis whilst making knowing references to shortwaves, MJO phases, SSWs, NOGAPs and the JHBKFA (yes - I make that last one up).

Rebelbrowser

gbee wrote: »

Pray has proven to be a fruitless exercise TBH. In the past the Russians have taken advantage of severe winters to defeat and slaughter Western Armies, and event their machines could run on fuels and oils that just froze in enemy tanks.

Hmmm, I've a feeling they can take good care of themselves.

I note Joe didn't specify where in Europe either. Not exactly putting your neck on the block to say it will be v cold somewhere in Europe in mid January...

munsterlegend

JHBKFA - the Jolly Hopeful But Knowing F**k All grouping?

Mr Cumulonimbus

-6 uppers in the northeast for a while (+60 to +72) in the GFS 6Z run.

Exhaustion among many now I suspect...........