LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

kennyb3

Worse 6z

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Its a chocolate teapot

next ! :pac:

Rebelbrowser

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I've no scientific basis for this at all (but this is the ramping thread)...

I've a niggling feeling that in a further hilarious twist the 6z GFS might look colder again. We will know in an hour....

Perhaps I should stick to the day job. 6z is even worse out to t120 which is quite an achievement actually!

icesnowfrost

Surely it's not all over I mean its only Thursday and Sunday and next week is a good bit away. Maybe things can turn around for cold again. we live in hope

Jaffusmaximus

ECM @ 96HR



GFS @ 96HR



Uploaded with ImageShack.us


This is at the crossroads here. Both GFS and ECM diverge at this point, hopefully we will see which one will follow the leader this evening!

They both have that LOW to the west of Iceland going either up or down. If it heads south later on the GFS it will follow the ECM and vice versa if it heads north on the ECM!

Lagoona Blue

I was surprised to see the car wasn't even frozen over this morning . was out on the school run at 8am , the car said it was 1.5 deg BUT it felt noticeably colder than any other morning this week.A sign of things to come I hope

kingshankly

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Surely it's not all over I mean its only Thursday and Sunday and next week is a good bit away. Maybe things can turn around for cold again. we live in hope

Let it go let it go

Oarrack Bama

Things not going our way for next week. Still much colder this weekend and maybe the odd flurry for the east. Harsh frosts.

pistolpetes11

Oarrack Bama wrote: »

Things not going our way for next week. Still much colder this weekend and maybe the odd flurry for the east. Harsh frosts.

Has the towel being thrown in by you :eek:

Oarrack Bama

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Has the towel being thrown in by you :eek:

Hard to be optimistic at this stage. ECM is ok potential. UKMO is excellent. GEM is excellent. GFS though it's not moving away. Let's see on the 12z but there is a bit of writing on the wall about it. Hopefully not!

kennyb3

I threw my towel in this morning, the GFS will win out imho - bring on the SSW.

Reckless Abandonment

Lads don't be giving up yet.... everything is still up for grabs, the cold is here and the really good stuff is not to far away.. MT and many other people where always saying end of Jan beginning of Feb was the time to watch...
The SSW which is taking place now, can take weeks to show up as it did in 2010...
Get your snow shovels ready ...

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Oarrack Bama wrote: »

Hard to be optimistic at this stage. ECM is ok potential. UKMO is excellent. GEM is excellent. GFS though it's not moving away. Let's see on the 12z but there is a bit of writing on the wall about it. Hopefully not!

I refuse to throw it in !!

Even if I have to use the NAE for 24 hour forecasts :pac:

mike65

I was just outside, in the sun its almost balmy!

Jaffusmaximus

The GFS will have to take this chance of cold FROM MY COLD DEAD HANDS!

maquiladora

The good news and the bad news.

Bad. I feel the writing is really on the wall now for this episode. We're just not going to end up with the type of setup we wanted to see : ridging extending up to Greenland creating a Greenland high. I just cannot see it happening anymore.

The good news I think is that FI is even more FI that usual at the moment and just because a second bite at the cherry isn't showing up in the later period on the models right now that doesn't mean that we are in for endless weeks of zonal crap either.

Spindle

The word zonal should be banned from this thread. At the moment though the writing is on the walls for this weekend. The only hope now is some ninja snow.

Larbre34

Bump! Only kidding;)

Must be the first daytime period in a while there hasnt been a post here 40 mins, probably the best evidence of the weariness and frustration. It would seem that for the next week Ireland will be in the position it was in 11 months ago, i.e. outside the tent looking in while the near continent had extremely low temps. Its certainly marginal and the battleground could be very interesting and for me +72 is the only outlook keeping an eye on. I am of course hoping for a wind up and push of cold air from the east at some point but not too likely in the medium term.

All of which of course tallies with MTs December outlook for the winter months, let hope it continues as such. Serious kudos to MTC once again.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

These are still shocking, all over the bleedin place
(for Dublin)

Larbre34

mike65 wrote: »

I was just outside, in the sun its almost balmy!

Cold rain in Cavan at 2C, 10C and fair in the south/south west. Probably sums up what we can expect for the next week to 10.

123 LC

is this kind of chart not really good in terms of snow??

Tom Cruises Left Nut

123 LC wrote: »

is this kind of chart not really good in terms of snow??

The uppers are a bit crap !

123 LC

t|nt|n wrote: »

The uppers are a bit crap

are the uppers the temperature?

seamus

123 LC wrote: »

is this kind of chart not really good in terms of snow??

No, it's just low pressure. The temperatures in the upper atmosphere are high enough at +180hrs (0-4 degrees). Looks more like windy as hell and lashing rain than snow and cold.

It's 180hrs out though, so FI, no need for concern.

are the uppers the temperature?

Someone else will correct me probably, but as I understand it, lower temps in the upper atmosphere (where the clouds are) gives a higher chances of snowfall and also means lower temps at ground level. If the temperature at higher altitudes is zero degrees, then the temperature at sea level must be higher than that, so no chance of snowfall.

maquiladora

123 LC wrote: »

is this kind of chart not really good in terms of snow??

No, the air is too mild. Just a load of rain and wind. When it moves east later though it would later drag down colder air but with no blocking to the west it would just get pushed away quickly.

howlinwolf

see what happens when i go to work.... it was all on yesterday before i left and now its all off( for the time being) ...tbh im not that bothered about it as i seen it as only marginal at best and if we did get any snow it was prob only wet snow/slush at lower levels,i would rather wait for the real cold to set in from the east backed up by the ssw and then have some prec ....its always a waitin game here in ireland:rolleyes:

dacogawa

As for this weekend...

BEASTERLY

good agreement at 96 hous. NOT! :pac:
http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gfs/archives/2013011006/gfs-0-102.png

whitebriar

Darren Brett on BBC news 24 just now,showed the icy air from the East winning the Battle by sunday turning the 2nd front to snow as it enters Donegal,away from the coast there,is that enough to lighten the mood in here?
Forecast stopped there.
So a lot of forecaster intuition being used and do ya know the graphics were lovely with big blu cold easterly arrows heading right into Ireland Sunday

Not a guarantee but something.
Theres not enough /any blocking really to sustain it though.
That said we really are blind when models are currently inaccurate at +48hrs.

dopolahpec

They are on the Kool-Aid over on Netweather. Any person who plainly states objectively that (at least relative to 2 days ago) support is rapidly dissolving for a prolonged cold spell is shot down. So much noise on the threads over there. People contradicting each other and getting very passionate. At the start of this model drama I was hitting up Netweather for most of my information, but this board has long since surpassed it and is now my 'go to' for much more reasonable discourse.

My personal take? I believe we will see a flirtation with cold on the east coast of Ireland for approximately 36 hours between Sunday and Monday. Following that I'm split 70:30 between Atlantic and cold. Not deep cold btw.