LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

maquiladora

dopolahpec wrote: »

They are on the Kool-Aid over on Netweather. Any person who plainly states objectively that (at least relative to 2 days ago) support is rapidly dissolving for a prolonged cold spell is shot down. So much noise on the threads over there. People contradicting each other and getting very passionate. At the start of this model drama I was hitting up Netweather for most of my information, but this board has long since surpassed it and is now my 'go to' for much more reasonable discourse.

lol, yes that's Netweather alright, it's only really worth looking at seriously for posts from some of the mods and a few others like Ian Fergusson. A lot of the other stuff is totally unreadable, characters that downplay everything and others that ramp in denial - same thing happens over there every time the models hint at something interesting!

Jaffusmaximus

From the Keyboard of the usually bullish Steve Murr



Steve Murr, on 10 January 2013 - 12:33 , said:
If people have read some of the things that I have intimated over the years & what ian has confirmed in his posts over the weeks-

* The GFS has poor handling of high pressure systems to the NE- it always has-
* The GFS has a strong atlantic bias- particular on the 06z & 18z suite- especially the ensembles- ie to much energy
* Exeter, whilst viewing the 06z dont take any stock really, all they do however is use it to determine confidence- I have NEVER seen the fax chart modified to the GFS away from UKMO/ECM
* The ECM ensembles & mean are a LOT keener on a the shortwave dropping south than the GFS-
* The fact that the METo have updated next week to ignore the entire GFS shows there is zero confidence-
* THe ARPEGE info MUST be strong-

here is the 12z predictions
UKMO- no change
ECM- westward correction to the UKMO with respect to mondays low-
GFS- a big SW correction & 50% of the ensembles move to the EURO solution.....

S

Min

Met Eireann still giving the risk of sleet and snow for later this weekend.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Min wrote: »

Met Eireann still giving the risk of sleet and snow for later this weekend.

Sure it could all turn on its head again on the 12zs

Those lads are earning their money this week thats for sure

Kippure

Piers Corbyn is on board.

Extreme cold, blizzards and snow drifts "many feet deep" to bring chaos to England and Wales for at least three weeks - into early Feb
· WeatherAction forecast issued ahead of all others
This catastrophic forecast scenario was first issued in detail in mid-December by WeatherAction long range forecasters and is now starting to come true. "Other forecasters are just starting to agree with us three weeks late but they don’t realize how severe this is going to be", said Piers Corbyn, astrophysicist of WeratherAction.com
"Our solar-lunar based forecast predicted generally increasingly cold and very cold weather from around Sat 12th Jan for Britain and Ireland. Next, waves of major Arctic blasts and blizzards with many feet of drifting snow are likely in places from around 20th with another major blizzardy blast around the begining of February.
"England and Wales including the South are likely to get the deepest snow, while Scotland and Northern parts of Ireland will probably be very cold rather than very snowy. Some of the SouthWest of Britain and Ireland will probably get rain rather than snow at times.
· Sudden stratospheric warmings forecast breakthrough
"There will be fluctuations in the severity of this weather but our confidence in this general forecast is increased by our new breakthrough in predicting major sudden warmings of the polar stratosphere, which in a contradictory way drive blasts of very cold air south.
"Although there is something of a 'stratospheric warming' developing now 10 Jan", said Piers, "we expect more intense 'sudden stratospheric warmings' and related cold blasts around quite well defined dates to come. We are 85% sure of this general picture and further details of the weather and stratosphere forecasts can be found via our website www.weatheraction.com ".
WeatherAction expect snow amounts to be as bad or worse than the record-breaking December 2010 - which they also predicted.
"Dr Stephen Wild, snow-expert at Weathernet advises that previous significant snow blasts in the last 10 years before Dec 2010 in England and Wales were: begining Jan 2010, 8-9 Feb 2007, Feb 1996 and Jan 1993", said Piers.
"These extreme events are entirely driven by solar activity and lunar factors and nothing to do with changes in CO2 which have no effect whatsoever on weather or climate", he added

Tom Cruises Left Nut

These extreme events are entirely driven by solar activity and lunar factors

Eh, what ?:pac:

leahyl

OMG I haven't really been keeping up with this thread since last night but are people now thinking that even our chance of a cold spell/snow in the long range forecast is diminishing also?

force eleven

leahyl wrote: »

OMG I haven't really been keeping up with this thread since last night but are people now thinking that even our chance of a cold spell/snow in the long range forecast is diminishing also?

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

Flip a coin at this stage, everyone has an opinion. The above link has the cold pushed right back to Russia in 10 days time...but I hope its wildly inaccurate...

BEASTERLY

Kippure wrote: »

Piers Corbyn is on board.

Oh.... great. :rolleyes:

munsterlegend

leahyl wrote: »

OMG I haven't really been keeping up with this thread since last night but are people now thinking that even our chance of a cold spell/snow in the long range forecast is diminishing also?

Its seems to be hanging in the balance Leahyl..all depends on a shortwave and what direction it heads in! The Professionals in the UK seems to be disregarding the GFS according to the latest forecasts and backing the ECM/UKMO solution more. A lot of uncertainty and today's models might not even resolve the issue.

maquiladora

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

From the Keyboard of the usually bullish Steve Murr



Steve Murr, on 10 January 2013 - 12:33 , said:
If people have read some of the things that I have intimated over the years & what ian has confirmed in his posts over the weeks-

* The GFS has poor handling of high pressure systems to the NE- it always has-
* The GFS has a strong atlantic bias- particular on the 06z & 18z suite- especially the ensembles- ie to much energy
* Exeter, whilst viewing the 06z dont take any stock really, all they do however is use it to determine confidence- I have NEVER seen the fax chart modified to the GFS away from UKMO/ECM
* The ECM ensembles & mean are a LOT keener on a the shortwave dropping south than the GFS-
* The fact that the METo have updated next week to ignore the entire GFS shows there is zero confidence-
* THe ARPEGE info MUST be strong-

here is the 12z predictions
UKMO- no change
ECM- westward correction to the UKMO with respect to mondays low-
GFS- a big SW correction & 50% of the ensembles move to the EURO solution.....

S

You need to take Steve Murr with a pinch of salt, he knows his stuff but he is totally biased to cold, borderline joke character in the same way that Ian Brown downcasts everything. His meltdowns are hilarious though.

BEASTERLY

maquiladora wrote: »

You need to take Steve Murr with a pinch of salt, he knows his stuff but he is totally biased to cold, borderline joke character in the same way that Ian Brown downcasts everything. His meltdowns are hilarious though.

But the eagle made a similar prediction to Steve in the model thread! Flame of hope flickers again!

munsterlegend

BEASTERLY wrote: »

But the eagle made a similar prediction to Steve in the model thread! Flame of hope flickers again!

But who is this mysterious Glasnevin/Louth charachter?

BEASTERLY

munsterlegend wrote: »

But who is this mysterious Glasnevin/Louth charachter?

The mods says its a wind up. Plus it never actually says its him. The UKMO is now the only flicker of hope left.

BEASTERLY

Cmon 12z! Its strange, Im looking forward to it even though I know ill be disappointed.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Cmon 12z! Its strange, Im looking forward to it even though I know ill be disappointed.

Ha same

And I don't have a badly timed meeting today ! :pac:

howlinwolf

i see the media are on the case in england


this is on the main page on sky news

Icy winds from Russia are set to whip up a fortnight of wintry weather
across the UK, with forecasters warning of snow in most parts of the country.

The unseasonably mild start to the year is expected to give way to temperatures as low as minus 5C, caused by an area of high pressure developing over Scandinavia.

Cold air moving in from the Baltic and western Russia will clash with milder air and Atlantic weather systems arriving from the west, with the UK directly underneath.

Paul Gundersen, chief forecaster at the Met Office, said: "All parts of the UK will see cold weather setting in over the weekend.

"We can expect sleet and snow showers to affect eastern areas at times, but with a battle developing between the cold air in the east and mild air pushing in from the west, no one should be surprised to see sleet or snow over the weekend and next week."
Forecasters say it is difficult to predict how much snow will fall
Sky News weather forecaster Isobel Lang it was "too early to give details on how much snow will fall and where.

"This is complicated by the fact that we are in the zone between cold air to the east and milder air to the west and at times one will become more dominant than the other."

A dusting of hill snow is expected in the north before snow showers reach southern and eastern areas this weekend.

The Met Office said the wintry weather could last until around January 23 when the outlook is more uncertain.

Ms Lang said: "As wet weather spreads east across England and Wales on Saturday, some snow is likely, especially over hills but perhaps down to low levels later as the front clears southeastern areas.

"A chill east wind will feed in further snow showers to eastern Britain during Sunday, although western parts should be dry and bright.

"A covering of snow is likely over higher ground but some may settle at low levels too. Temperatures on Sunday may only reach around 2C to 4C at best."

maquiladora

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Cmon 12z! Its strange, Im looking forward to it even though I know ill be disappointed.

I'm looking forward to it because I don't feel nervous about it being something which was looking good but could still fall apart at the last moment. Instead I'm now pretty confident that its game over for us (UK being further east might do a little better at least for a while), so there is not much to get stressed over. :pac: Very curious to see how the models eventually come together and if there are any signs of a second bite at the cherry showing up in FI.

BEASTERLY

maquiladora wrote: »

I'm looking forward to it because I don't feel nervous about it being something which was looking good but could still fall apart at the last moment. Instead I'm now pretty confident that its game over for us (UK being further east might do a little better at least for a while), so there is not much to get stressed over. :pac: Very curious to see how the models eventually come together and if there are any signs of a second bite at the cherry showing up in FI.

Stay positive!!! I think the people who downplay everything are just trying to shield themselves from the hurt. Is that what you are doing now?? :pac:

Tom Cruises Left Nut

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Stay positive!!! I think the people who downplay everything are just trying to shield themselves from the hurt. Is that what you are doing now?? :pac:

In that case I am setting myself up for a breakdown !

munsterlegend

Of course being further west we could still be out of the equation but still a positive:

Ian Fergusson ‏@fergieweather

Forecast outlook frm @metoffice leans to continued colder outcome nxt week, with lots of uncertainty on attendant snow threat & distribution

FuzzyZoeller

Ok, I think it is about time to come out of the lurker bushes. I haven't been glued to this forum as much since 09 - missed all the fun of 2010 due to the birth of my daughter at xmas (we called her snowy).

Anyway, I think the fact that the GFS is being trusted by a lot of posters, despite the fact that there have been plenty of posts to suggest that it shouldn't be, is interesting. Maybe it is because it is out every 6 hours, so can reinforce its opinon quicker then the other models, maybe it is because it has a better sounding name (Global Forecast System sounds so much better and authoritive than European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasting), I really don't know.

But one thing I do know is that there are going to be plenty more ups and downs over the next few days (never mind weeks) and I for one am enjoying every last minuite of it! (oh, and I am also expecting a snowfest).:eek:

Weathering

Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81
NAEFS, NOGAPS and GEM ensembles all colder than the GFS ensembles; http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/naefs_display.php?x=237&y=21 … | http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/fens_display.php?x=235&y=21 … | http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/cmc_display.php?x=237&y=22 …

BEASTERLY

t minus 27 minues

Tom Cruises Left Nut

BEASTERLY wrote: »

t minus 27 minues

24

maw368

to be fair Piers forecast the mild for december well in advance of most despite the models going cold. he has as good a success rate as anyone so i'm hoping he's right. I could really do with some proper sustained wintry weather with awesome snow.

steveLFC24

t|nt|n wrote: »

24

22 :pac::pac:

maw368

I cant keep doing this, i'm gona read a book for 20 mins

maw368

for me snow is the best thing since... since oxygen

Jaffusmaximus

starskey77 wrote: »

i hate snow its my feet they get cold when i go out for the indo
driving to the shops with the landlady dont bring it into the house
cold pubs at night. yes i hate snow

Wrong Forum Pal!