LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

maquiladora

Some changes on the 12Z GFS, but it's just too little too late at this stage, those changes needed to start happening two runs ago.

Even if the Icelandic shortwave went more southeast than east, look at the energy spilling in east from the southern tip of Greenland pushing away the high. It's just too narrow a timeframe to expect the dramatic changes we'd need to see on the GFS.

Jaffusmaximus

dacogawa

Ok, how does this work out for us please ?

opr

Decent improvement on that run so far. Now need the UKMO to stick to its guns in this run and things will be looking good.

Opr

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

Some changes on the 12Z GFS, but it's just too little too late at this stage, those changes needed to start happening two runs ago.

Thanks for your input as ever Maq but too late for when? The weekend/early next week or beyond?

BEASTERLY

Good run up to 90 hours, then a shortwave spoils the party.

Jaffusmaximus

dacogawa wrote: »

Ok, how does this work out for us please ?

Its a backtrack by the GFS from what had been showing and that's good enough compared to what could have happened!

kennyb3

Yes when you compare 108 to 114 from before, cold more entrenched, but really only marginally.

Overall it's still the same s'hite though

BEASTERLY

kennyb3 wrote: »

Yes when you compare 108 to 114 from before, cold more entrenched, but really only marginally.

That not what were looking at. Its the handling of the ridge into greenland up to 90 hours which is much better.

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

Thanks for your input as ever Maq but too late for when? The weekend/early next week or beyond?

Just looking at the bigger picture of what we'd need to see happening to get the type of cold setup we need. Haven't really been looking at the details for the weekend.

Weathering

maquiladora wrote: »

Some changes on the 12Z GFS, but it's just too little too late at this stage, those changes needed to start happening two runs ago.

Even if the Icelandic shortwave went more southeast than east, look at the energy spilling in east from the southern tip of Greenland pushing away the high. It's just too narrow a timeframe to expect the dramatic changes we'd need to see on the GFS.

I wouldn't be so blatant about dismissing it yet
It's baby steps granted
Chris Fawkes just tweeted Chris Fawkes ‏@_chrisfawkes
Midday gfs coming in, it's colder than 6z run for early next week

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Little chance here sunday morning

pistolpetes11

maquiladora wrote: »

Just looking at the bigger picture of what we'd need to see happening to get the type of cold setup we need. Haven't really been looking at the details for the weekend.

Myself I am not looking at the weekend , if the low had of went North and flattened we could of been a while waiting to get out of that setup .

GFS is this the start of the backtrack from you now :eek:

patneve2

gfs "undercuts" a low at 132 hrs...much much much better than the 06z but we still might be too far west...definite improvement though

Pangea

Latest from MET UK hitting out at the Daily Mail
An article by James Delingpole appears in the Daily Mail today under the headline ‘The crazy climate change obsession that’s made the Met Office a menace’.

This article contains a series of factual inaccuracies about the Met Office and its science, as outlined on our blog.
..
http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/01/10/addressing-the-daily-mail-and-james-delingpoles-crazy-climate-change-obsession-article/

Speak Now

So we can be clear, all the models got it wrong

Looking at the usual compromise :cool:

Sure we're all battle hardy at this stage.

As i said earlier T72 is my new limit (I swear i tell ya :P)

Between "Shannon entropy" and "The butterfly effect" it's not worth the pain of looking any further

Reckless Abandonment

Huge difference 850h temps over central Europe at 144z... looks to be keeping the cold closer to us on this run, but need a push west for us to get anything ... but looking a lot better..

maquiladora

UKMO has shifted to the GFS.

I'm sorry guys, but this one is over. Really

Don't fall into the strawclutching trap on NW that opens every time a cold spell starts failing on the models. Happens every time.

We need to look further ahead now to see if the models start picking up another chance down the road.

Jaffusmaximus

Bye Bye GFS don't let the door hit your ARSE on the way out!

leahyl

maquiladora wrote: »

UKMO has shifted to the GFS.

I'm sorry guys, but this one is over. Really

Don't fall into the strawclutching trap on NW that opens every time a cold spell starts failing on the models. Happens every time.

We need to look further ahead now to see if the models start picking up another chance down the road.

Looking more and more like MT's predicitons might come true....:)

weatherfiend

Guys I know this question was answered last year but I can't find it. Does anybody know where the likes of accuweather, Celsius and thos kind of apps get their info? I find Celsius to be more or less in line with my own machine but accu can quite often be way off. Thanks

maquiladora

leahyl wrote: »

Looking more and more like MT's predicitons might come true....:)

Hopefully even before Feb. I have a feeling we might not have to wait too much longer for the next bite at the frozen cherry.

Weathering

There singing from a different hymn sheet on netweather compared to a few here

munsterlegend

It looks to my very untrained eye we are as ever too far west. Parts of the UK will get snow. Still a lot of confusion and I note Maq's bigger picture pessimism!

dacogawa

I've never wanted to have a few days in Grimsby so much...

weatherfiend

t|nt|n wrote: »

Little chance here sunday morning

Maybe just enough to keep the faith that it's still to come as MT says!!

BEASTERLY

GFS makes small improvements up to 96 hours. But the UKMO makes a monumental turnaround after 96 hours!

Kippure

Await the ECM later.

maquiladora

Weathering wrote: »

There singing from a different hymn sheet on netweather compared to a few here

Thats because most of them live hundreds of miles further east that us. A delay in things can give them cold for longer, even snow potential, while we'd have the mild southwesterlies instead.

Harps

weatherfiend wrote: »

Guys I know this question was answered last year but I can't find it. Does anybody know where the likes of accuweather, Celsius and thos kind of apps get their info? I find Celsius to be more or less in line with my own machine but accu can quite often be way off. Thanks

Accuweathers forecasts update automatically from the most recent GFS run, now the 12z. Not sure what celsius is but would guess they do the same, all those websites just update with the model runs

Don't have access to the model runs at work but as was obvious this morning there's no real cold spell on the way, as maq sayssmall changes here and there won't change the broad scale pattern which looks to be shifting more zonal again