LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

Larbre34

kennyb3 wrote: »

Yes when you compare 108 to 114 from before, cold more entrenched, but really only marginally.

Overall it's still the same s'hite though

Aptly put. I think the words, marginal, boundary, frontal and worst of all zonal will feature a lot in next 10 days, but thats what keeps in interesting.

maquiladora

BEASTERLY wrote: »

GFS makes small improvements up to 96 hours. But the UKMO makes a monumental turnaround after 96 hours!

Yes, a shocking backtrack from the UKMO. ECM could save some blushes in Reading by not having as much to backtrack on later.

Gonzo

I dont know how many times over the past 30 something year's Ive seen news reports of roads and cities in England blocked with snow while Dublin and the rest of Ireland is enjoying 12C with rain and a strong south west wind. The opposite is also true, the amount of times ive seen 28C in England during the summer and it's 15C spitting rain in Dublin. Unfortunately it's just something we have to live with we are practically in the Atlantic Ocean while England is hundreds of miles away from it.

maquiladora

Gonzo wrote: »

I dont know how many times over the past 30 something year's Ive seen news reports of roads and cities in England blocked with snow while Dublin and the rest of Ireland is enjoying 12C with rain and a strong south west wind. The opposite is also true, the amount of times ive seen 28C in England during the summer and it's 15C spitting rain in Dublin. Unfortunately it's just something we have to live with we are practically in the Atlantic Ocean while England is hundreds of miles away from it.

Yep, there really can be huge differences and it's something to keep in mind when people are are reading Netweather comments.

Look at the GFS at 122 hours.

+10 in Cork. -5 in Leeds. (!)

http://91.121.16.5/modeles_gfs/runs/2013011012/126-778.GIF?10-12

What we really need is proper, solid blocking off to our west/northwest which allows cold air to reach us without much problem.

leahyl

Larbre34 wrote: »

Aptly put. I think the words, marginal, boundary, frontal and worst of all zonal will feature a lot in next 10 days, but thats what keeps in interesting.

In fairness to you Larbre34 I seem to remember you calling a mild one for the last week or so (well, relatively mild anyway!) - well done you

While all of us were hyperventilating with the thought of -8 uppers and blizzards you were the voice of reason :P

Weathering

And back in 2010 it reached -18/19 in Castlederg and London was -2 -3 on some of thos nights
Last feb in it was -16/-17 in England and mild in Scotland in Ireland
Further East and North better chance of being cold overall

Larbre34

maquiladora wrote: »

Look at the GFS at 122 hours.

+10 in Cork. -5 in Leeds. (!)

.

I'd quite fancy Dublin's chances in that event, certainly the hills

whitebriar

BEASTERLY wrote: »

GFS makes small improvements up to 96 hours. But the UKMO makes a monumental turnaround after 96 hours!

Isn't amazing,how that chart is completely at odds with their monthly update today,given only at lunchtime and with all their BBC forecasts today.
I may jinx things,and I hope not but I smell a rat,a durty white frozen furry one if you ask me as to the reliability of the above

do ya know,Ian Fergusons comments tonight will be crucial

BLIZZARD7

Well most here seem to have given up- but being an optimist I will not give up until I see All main models agreeing- and for the record, there has being no monumental backtrack by either the GFS or UKMO. Both models have made small changes and are meeting in somewhat of a middle ground. The 06z GFS was an improvement on the 00z and the 12z is an improvment on the 06z. Id guess the 18z/00z will improve too- It may end up being enough to get a Greeny high...if we are lucky. Oh and the UKMO 168hr chart would have a cut-off high somewhere to our north with an under cutting low most likely.

Eyes down for the ECM...




Dan

Jaffusmaximus

A Greenland high will have to show its hand at some stage, was the 21st Jan onward not what some forecasters were touting! Something odd will need to appear out of the blue soon on the models! SSW is finding its feet far above us so question is when will it effect the models?

munsterlegend

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Well most here seem to have given up- but being an optimist I will not give up until I see All main models agreeing- and for the record, there has being no monumental backtrack by either the GFS or UKMO. Both models have made small changes and are meeting in somewhat of a middle ground. The 06z GFS was an improvement on the 00z and the 12z is an improvment on the 06z. Id guess the 18z/00z will improve too- It may end up being enough to get a Greeny high...if we are lucky. Oh and the UKMO 168hr chart would have a cut-off high somewhere to our north with an under cutting low most likely.

Eyes down for the ECM...




Dan

I'm also in the optimistic corner...the GEM looks quite good! straw clutching..

maquiladora

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Well most here seem to have given up- but being an optimist I will not give up until I see All main models agreeing- and for the record, there has being no monumental backtrack by either the GFS or UKMO. Both models have made small changes and are meeting in somewhat of a middle ground. The 06z GFS was an improvement on the 00z and the 12z is an improvment on the 06z. Id guess the 18z/00z will improve too- It may end up being enough to get a Greeny high...if we are lucky. Oh and the UKMO 168hr chart would have a cut-off high somewhere to our north with an under cutting low most likely.

Eyes down for the ECM...




Dan

Have to disagree about the UKMO Dan! It's made a big shift to the GFS. Look how similar they are now at 96. GFS has been rock solid for the past 2 days with only some minor variations of the same theme in comparison.

munsterlegend

Met Eireann still not going beyond Monday in their latest update.

finnharpsboy

so no snow for dublin

Weathering

finnharpsboy wrote: »

so no snow for dublin

Get back to the hills of donegal u might have a better chance

Speak Now

Weathering wrote: »

Get back to the hills of donegal u might have a better chance

Actually Dublin/Wicklow mountains might see some Sunday evening

maquiladora

The GFS ensembles are a bit better.

This isn't bad for 216 hours.

This is the mean chart.



If only this was happening a bit sooner.

munsterlegend

http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

I am pinning my hopes on the GEM model. Is Simon Keeling anyway respected?

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

The GFS ensembles are a bit better.

This isn't bad for 216 hours.



If only this was happening a bit sooner.

Thanks Maq - a chink of light!

Speak Now

Chink of light 9 days away

I wonder is the SSW going to be a big let down for Ireland?

Wouldnt be shocking i suppose!

Plenty flip flopping to come for sure.

At least this model watching will take me to the bright evenings :pac:

Then i wont mind either way

BLIZZARD7

maquiladora wrote: »

Have to disagree about the UKMO Dan! It's made a big shift to the GFS. Look how similar they are now at 96. GFS has been rock solid for the past 2 days with only some minor variations of the same theme in comparison.

Yes they are very similar at +96hrs- BUT that is because both have moved towards each other- compare 00z GFS at +108hrs with UKMO at 96hrs- IF the UKMO has moved towards the GFS then both should look similar no?

00z GFS at +108hrs



+96hrs UKMO 12z -







Dan

maquiladora

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Chink of light 9 days away

The fact that it's 9 days away is a good thing Jerry!

It means there is enough cold ensemble members even at 9 days out to give us an average of -4 uppers.

Oarrack Bama

GFS has moved slightly in the right direction around 72 hrs. It's somewhat better than the 6z but not enough. I'd imagine we are probably out of time for big upgrades in that time frame. UKMO is ok-ish but nothing spectacular. GEM is the best without a doubt but we would need the ECM to go the same way for any traction.

In short upgrades could occur but it's unlikely at this stage IMO. Still a risk some could see some snow but it's likely to be transitional snow to rain type stuff either Sunday or Monday.

BEASTERLY

Everyone ready for the ECM? I dont have a good feeling about it. Yes the GFS improved slightly but the UKMO was Horiffic! And that was the main ECM support.

Weathering

Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81
So GFS has back tracked a little and delays the Atlantic. UKMO sustains the cold with frontal snow poss later and GEM is cold as well.

delw

Not long till the ECM rolls out but the sooner the better it agrees with the GFS & puts us out of our misery

ZX7R

munsterlegend wrote: »

http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

I am pinning my hopes on the GEM model. Is Simon Keeling anyway respected?

He is defiantly one of the better forecasters and he is not a cold lover when it comes to forecasting

maquiladora

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Yes they are very similar at +96hrs- BUT that is because both have moved towards each other- compare 00z GFS at +108hrs with UKMO at 96hrs- IF the UKMO has moved towards the GFS then both should look similar no?

There are some changes on the GFS since the 0Z, yes. But for the GFS to have moved towards the UKMO then it would have ended up looking something like what the 0Z UKMO was showing.



Thats not what we see. I think what we are seeing is that the GFS and the UKMO look similar now because that is how the most likely outcome will be. But to get to the that agreement the GFS has been very consistent while the UKMO has had to change a lot more. You only have to scan through the UKMO and GFS archvies and you'll see major changes from the UKMO compared to the GFS within that time period.


Anyway, ECM up next. :pac:

esposito

Nabber wrote: »

Classic stuff in here today

I see the UKMO has come on board with the rest and dropped it's HP East of Iceland in favour of an Atlantic push.
The Atlantic just contains so much energy all year round that we pixie heads just don't get much weather variance regardless of what season it is.

I HATE the atlantic with a passion. Could it not just f*** off for a few weeks

munsterlegend

what miracles are we hoping for in the ECM?