LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

what miracles are we hoping for in the ECM?

Something like one of it's earlier runs would be nice!

Out to 72 hours, looks like good agreement with GFS and UKMO at first glance.

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

Something like one of it's earlier runs would be nice!

Out to 72 hours, looks like good agreement with GFS and UKMO at first glance.

We want divergence! and a very big push west!

John.Icy

In the coming runs over the next few days, I expect gradual progress back towards a colder solution, with some serious cold returning in far FI charts. It's not over yet, although next week may be over in terms of what was predicted yesterday(maybe). Any cold modelled towards the end of January and start of February being modelled in future runs I'd be much more confident in coming off. The SSW(effects may take a long time to actually assist sustained severe cold) if any of it's effects properly influence Ireland, we'll know all about it, and considering a lot of the recently developed cold potential was declared unrelated to the SSW, we have potentially a lot to look forward too, just not as soon as the models of 2 days ago suggested.

Patience grasshoppers. Our time will come.

And wouldn't it all make perfect sense for the ECM tonight to have a stonker of a run. (I wish!)

Edit; lol ecm

BLIZZARD7

ECM looking better than 00z so far!




Dan

Oarrack Bama

Pretty good ECM.

maquiladora

ECM hasn't changed much from it's 0Z run out to 120. Looks about the same to me.

Ireland never under anything colder than -4 uppers up to this point though. So it wouldn't be mild but the wrong side of marginal for snow. UK does better.

Will we get some FI eye candy?

JanuarySnowstor

ECM at 120hrs would have hill snow for many
Prepare for another spectaular ECM run as heights look stronger over Greenland
Don't worry guys Ireland will join in the fun alright it just may take an extra day or two!!

BEASTERLY

maquiladora wrote: »

Something like one of it's earlier runs would be nice!

Out to 72 hours, looks like good agreement with GFS and UKMO at first glance.

Its not going to totally put us out of our misery though.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

:pac:

Oarrack Bama

lol

Eastcoastryan

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Its not going to totally put us out of our misery though.

It's not over yet!!! Battleground snow maybe??!!!

JanuarySnowstor

To borrow a phrase at 144hrs BOOM!!!!
Snow for all except maybe the far southwest

Awesome ECM, which must be why the English Met are so bullish
Greenland heights look very fragile though and need to strengthen up in the next run

patneve2

ECM 144...once again a nice east to west conveyor belt...when will this madness end...my head will explode one of these days :eek:

maquiladora

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Its not going to totally put us out of our misery though.

Yep, still quite similar to it's last run out to 144. Greenland heights not as good and uppers here not as good, but that kinda detail at 144 doesn't matter cause it would change. Very similar to 0Z so far though.

Jaffusmaximus

maquiladora wrote: »

Yep, still quite similar to it's last run out to 144. Greenland heights not as good and uppers here not as good, but that kinda detail at 144 doesn't matter cause it would change. Very similar to 0Z so far though.

Its consistent something that cannot be said for the GFS earlier. The GEM is not looking to shabby either!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

168 !

maquiladora

Between 144-168 you could well have a snow event there.

FI I know, but nice charts!

Oarrack Bama

lolol:D

munsterlegend

Is this the mini miracle we hoped for?! Anyway heres hoping for more upgrades

Eastcoastryan

t|nt|n wrote: »

168 !

:eek:

Seriously, I dont think I can do this anymore... I am exhausted!!

BEASTERLY

maquiladora wrote: »

Yep, still quite similar to it's last run out to 144. Greenland heights not as good and uppers here not as good, but that kinda detail at 144 doesn't matter cause it would change. Very similar to 0Z so far though.

Very snowya at t144 and 168 all the same. Bank bank bank!

JanuarySnowstor

And at 168hrs it just gets better
Snow for everybody & widespread disruption (if it panned out as ECM says)

I still think heights look very fragile over Greeny though

patneve2

amazing ecm evolution...but...heights fragile and in any case there's no way I'm going to get carried away by it

pistolpetes11

I think the SSW is comng into play in someway here on the models , I know it shouldn't be this early but was reading something last night that suggested it could have an initial kick before really kicking in ,

Now I am not say this wil bel guaranteeing cold but might explain some of the model goings on the last week or so.

Also folks may have been a little early from the blocks calling this a bust , I think as it lies its 50/50 still !!!!

Musicman2000

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Very snowya at t144 and 168 all the same. Bank bank bank!

Jesus the sledges could b coming out yet, wasnt expecting to see that chart but as maq said still on FI .

Jaffusmaximus

Oarrack Bama wrote: »

lol

maquiladora

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I still think heights look very fragile over Greeny though

That is a concern, and a little more fragile than on the 0Z too. Other concern is I don't think any other model is showing this - yet. Would be interesting to see if any GEFS members had something like this?

oterra

I was hoping for an end game here but the spanner has truly been rammed into the works. Head numbing stuff. I might even crack open the good spam we keep for the guests....

Tom Cruises Left Nut

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

I think the SSW is comng into play in someway here on the models , I know it shouldn't be this early but was reading something last night that suggested it could have an initial kick before really kicking in ,

Now I am not say this wil bel guaranteeing cold but might explain some of the model goings on the last week or so.

Also folks may have been a little early from the blocks calling this a bust , I think as it lies its 50/50 still !!!!

From Glacier Point over on NW

Remember though the typical stratospheric warming timelines..

Initial downwell response about 15th Jan, brief respite from the cold around 20th -24th (just how much of a respite remains to be seen) before a reload and much more significant impact around 28th Jan (which should come from the NE).

maquiladora

Make no mistake, this is the model you want to be right today.