LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

Darwin

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

I think the SSW is comng into play in someway here on the models , I know it shouldn't be this early but was reading something last night that suggested it could have an initial kick before really kicking in ,

Now I am not say this wil bel guaranteeing cold but might explain some of the model goings on the last week or so.

Also folks may have been a little early from the blocks calling this a bust , I think as it lies its 50/50 still !!!!

Over on netweather one of the forums mods reckoned the initial downwell from the SSW would be around the 15th, then milder again from 20th to 25th or so, then a real kick of cold. Am I right in thinking the initial SSW event happened on 6th January?

Mr Cumulonimbus

maquiladora wrote: »

Between 144-168 you could well have a snow event there.

FI I know, but nice charts!

Ah no........ Please stop the torture.:D.

Jaffusmaximus

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

I think the SSW is comng into play in someway here on the models , I know it shouldn't be this early but was reading something last night that suggested it could have an initial kick before really kicking in ,

Now I am not say this wil bel guaranteeing cold but might explain some of the model goings on the last week or so.

Also folks may have been a little early from the blocks calling this a bust , I think as it lies its 50/50 still !!!!

Very true!!! The SSW is behind the scenes on every run doing whatever its doing and only when it reaches a tipping point will it flood into the models. Best advice 96Hrs Max is what we can semi-trust!

Musicman2000

t|nt|n wrote: »

From Glacier Point over on NW

Would tie in what MT said as well.

dexter647

After seeing all the other runs today i think it's safe to say the Ecm is drunk:D

Tom Cruises Left Nut

dexter647 wrote: »

After seeing all the other runs today i think it's safe to say the Ecm is drunk:D

What I think

cherryghost

Interesting divergence on the models this evening. GFS wants the Atlantic to break down the easterlies whilst the ECM gives the easterlies a chance at repelling.

I really don't want to bet on any model pulling through. Interestingly the GEM attempts something similar after 120 to ECM, the cold withstanding any atlantic pushes.

red_bairn

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

I think the SSW is comng into play in someway here on the models , I know it shouldn't be this early but was reading something last night that suggested it could have an initial kick before really kicking in ,

Now I am not say this wil bel guaranteeing cold but might explain some of the model goings on the last week or so.

Also folks may have been a little early from the blocks calling this a bust , I think as it lies its 50/50 still !!!!

Like the chugging of a car engine?

JanuarySnowstor

What does worry me about the ECM is the 192hrs chart is synoptically impossible
I mean it's showing a snowstrom coming in off the atlantic
Now it might be fun to look at but my years is telling me no, not possible

So you would also wonder is it getting the earlier frames right either
Ah well, another day and none the wiser, though one important little point the ECM was showing a snowy weekend a few days ago. What happened that little idea Mr. ECM ??

I'll remain positive, but more runs needed

John.Icy

It would actually sicken you looking at much of the UK potentially in the firing line for some absolute snowfests!

ECM....bah golly....didn't expect that tbh, UK would be buried with this run, Ireland more marginal, but marginal can be best Considering the last few days though I'm not paying heed to anything past t72

Such confusing models, and even though it's the pub run, further slight improvements on the 18z from the gfs 12z...and who knows what will happen tomorrow!

JJJJNR

damn out of popcorn.

maquiladora

How on earth does the ECM hang on to that greenland high with such low heights.

Really nice FI candy though. Cold and with snow potential, not much more you could ask for at this time really.

ZX7R

Look's like the EAGLE was on to something :eek:

pistolpetes11

Darwin wrote: »

Over on netweather one of the forums mods reckoned the initial downwell from the SSW would be around the 15th, then milder again from 20th to 25th or so, then a real kick of cold. Am I right in thinking the initial SSW event happened on 6th January?

Yup thats basically the jist of it , it does fall in line with MT /GP's thoughts too ,

I was not expecting anything from this spell at all , but it just kept on building into something more than your standard winter fare, what way it will go I dont have a clue but Im all in now and will be dam well disappointed if we dont get something out of it .

I am looking at it as the starters !

BEASTERLY

maquiladora wrote: »

How on earth does the ECM hang on to that greenland high with such low heights.

Really nice FI candy though. Cold and with snow potential, not much more you could ask for at this time really.

I can see the ECM going horribly wrong in the next few runs with those heights.

john mayo 10

maquiladora wrote: »

How on earth does the ECM hang on to that greenland high with such low heights.

Really nice FI candy though. Cold and with snow potential, not much more you could ask for at this time really.

ECM seems determined to hold onto the cold. All is not lost yet

Tom Cruises Left Nut

I'm just happy for some eye candy, man that was a looooong day model watching

maquiladora

Darwin wrote: »

Over on netweather one of the forums mods reckoned the initial downwell from the SSW would be around the 15th, then milder again from 20th to 25th or so, then a real kick of cold. Am I right in thinking the initial SSW event happened on 6th January?

Well if that ECM came off and then we got a another cold spell merging with that from the SSW lag effect you could be looking at something really interesting....to put it mildy.*



*irony not intended.

maquiladora

BEASTERLY wrote: »

I can see the ECM going horribly wrong in the next few runs with those heights.

Not to mention the difficult road to give get to that point with so many places where it could go wrong.

Any GEFS members showing anything like it? It needs support to believe in.

Nice to still have some eye candy though. :pac:

Deep Easterly

t|nt|n wrote: »

I'm just happy for some eye candy, man that was a looooong day model watching

If I am honest I'd prefer the 00z run as there was a bit of a kick to those approaching lows, this run looks far slacker and 'samey'.

pistolpetes11

This is robbed but :D:D

pistolpetes11

Deep Easterly wrote: »

If I am honest I'd prefer the 00z run as there was a bit of a kick to those approaching lows, this run looks far slacker and 'samey'.

You do love a good storm !

Musicman2000

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

You do love a good storm !

who wants a storm? that we can have 365 days a year, a bit of the white stuff would be nice for a change:)

maquiladora

Deep Easterly wrote: »

If I am honest I'd prefer the 00z run as there was a bit of a kick to those approaching lows, this run looks far slacker and 'samey'.

Some good potential there too though.

nacho libre

just to point out it is possible on rare occasions to have weak heights further north, like the ecm is showing, and still get buried in snow. 1978 was one example. i believe there was an even more famous example.

nacho libre

Musicman2000 wrote: »

who wants a storm? that we can have 365 days a year, a bit of the white stuff would be nice for a change:)

i wouldn't say no to a windstorm that resulted in a blizzard!

Musicman2000

nacho libre wrote: »

i wouldn't say no to a windstorm that resulted in a blizzard!

Sure it would be rude to say no to that:D

Weathering

I'd love an update from Mt

Deep Easterly

Musicman2000 wrote: »

that we can have 365 days a year, a bit of the white stuff would be nice for a change:)

But the thing is, we don't. We have not seen a good, solid storm in many years, they are becoming rarer than snow. I at least have certainly seen more 'snow days ' here the last few winters than stormy days.

compsys

Why is the Atlantic so strong though?

I'd imagine it isn't a particularly warm body of water so where does all its energy come from?

Is it simply the sheer size of the ocean to our West that gives it all the energy?