LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

Musicman2000

maquiladora wrote: »

I'm going to have nightmares tonight of heavy rain in Ireland moving east and turning to masses of battlefield snow in the UK.

ha ha thats what im thinking a re run of last winter, only a few 100 miles further west and it would be game on

Oarrack Bama

The old thread will be returning tomorrow for Sunday if it keeps going the way it's going. Risk increasing for frontal snow midlands and east:cool:

Rougies

kennyb3 wrote: »

Worst case scenario we all go to the west coast and try paddle the island east. That or move to Kent

Noooo! That would lessen the fetch distance for convective streamers in the Irish Sea. Better off going to the Isle of Man and paddle it out into the Atlantic somewhere. Oh and blow up Wales too while we're at it.

snowstorm445

Guys honestly this is a massive upgrade from the Atlantic obsessed output seen earlier! It really isn't that bad at all! Virtually every other model (aside from the UKMO) is in favour if even more epic cold! The GFS has well and truly backtracked, it just hasn't quite got there yet!

munsterlegend

All this model changing reminds me of a song..there's something happening here, what it is ain't exactly clear...

kennyb3

Ha ha netweather is mental - talking up blizzards etc.

Deep Easterly

I am very likely missing something but I am not seeing anything to suggest that this run is in anyway an upgrade? It looks chilly, yes, but not much more so than it is now, and this coupled with inactive weather systems hovering around Ireland which smacks a little too familiar to the same pattern during Nov/Dec last. I am tired and ill at the moment though so this is probably affecting my more usual half glass full approach to these matters.

snowstorm445

kennyb3 wrote: »

Ha ha netweather is mental - talking up blizzards etc.

England and Wales are the centre of the Universe so because of the snow opportunities it is fantastic run from their perspective! What about us on the very edge of it all!

Scubadevils

I can never read NW when it becomes this much of an East/West knife edge, far too painful... A lot of memories as a kid watching news reports on TV of snow in the UK and being almost sick with envy!!!

Oarrack Bama

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I am very likely missing something but I am not seeing anything to suggest that this run is in anyway an upgrade?

Living in Galway probably does not help;)

snowstorm445

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I am very likely missing something but I am not seeing anything to suggest that this run is in anyway an upgrade? It looks chilly, yes, but not much more so than it is now, and this coupled with inactive weather systems hovering around Ireland which smacks a little too familiar to the same pattern during Nov/Dec last. I am tired and ill at the moment though so this is probably affecting my more usual half glass full approach to these matters.

Well firstly the cold uppers reach much further potentially bringing snow to eastern counties. Ringing towards Greenland is much better in this run and almost gets there. Finally the easterly that follows manages to just clip the Irish coast, bringing a huge dumping of snow to parts of Britain.

Not brilliant from our perspective but certainly better. The GFS has definitely backed down but it might return to zonal for all we know.

kennyb3

snowstorm445 wrote: »

England and Wales are the centre of the Universe so because of the snow opportunities it is fantastic run from their perspective! What about us on the very edge of it all!

Ah i understand that - hopefully we'll be sharing their excitement.

Fiskar

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I am very likely missing something but I am not seeing anything to suggest that this run is in anyway an upgrade? It looks chilly, yes, but not much more so than it is now, and this coupled with inactive weather systems hovering around Ireland which smacks a little too familiar to the same pattern during Nov/Dec last. I am tired and ill at the moment though so this is probably affecting my more usual half glass full approach to these matters.

Have a glass or 2 or wine, come back everything will be alot clearer

munsterlegend

From what I can see Deep Easterly the good news is that everything is being pushed further west run by run. We are in a lot better position than we seemed 7 or 8 hours ago. Of course it could all go horribly wrong but the trend is very positive.

maquiladora

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I am very likely missing something but I am not seeing anything to suggest that this run is in anyway an upgrade? It looks chilly, yes, but not much more so than it is now, and this coupled with inactive weather systems hovering around Ireland which smacks a little too familiar to the same pattern during Nov/Dec last. I am tired and ill at the moment though so this is probably affecting my more usual half glass full approach to these matters.

At 80 hours energy around Iceland gets directed southeast towards the UK. It's this feature that all the models that were showing a more blocked setup had, but the GFS up until now was against this motion, instead sending the energy east or northeast. So it's a positive step hopefully on the road to something better.

Deep Easterly

Oarrack Bama wrote: »

Living in Galway probably does not help;)

I am truly humbled :rolleyes:

Tom Cruises Left Nut

maquiladora wrote: »

At 80 hours energy around Iceland gets directed southeast towards the UK. It's this feature that all the models that were showing a more blocked setup had, but the GFS up until now was against this motion, instead sending the energy east or northeast. So it's a positive step hopefully on the road to something better.

A nervous sleep now before the 00zs !

I'll be dreaming of shortwaves !

Oarrack Bama

GFS ensemble mean 120 hrs - big upgrade on previous

Oarrack Bama

Some cracking ensemble runs. No 6 please :cool:

eskimocat

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I am tired and ill at the moment though so this is probably affecting my more usual half glass full approach to these matters.

Sorry to hear you not feeling to 'hot', hopefully the fever 'cools' down soon and you are back to your usual GFS (Good Form for Snow), go ECM (Easy on the Cough Medicine) or UKMO, (U'll Knock your Modem Over) and then you'll be all :mad::rolleyes::eek:

Hopefully some good hard freezing weather comes along shortly and kills all them bl00dy bugs and viruses!

pauldry

Ah the flow is too Atlantic based.

Need a more dominant Northeasterly.

Atlantic might bring some snow but mainly mixed precipitation

Eden3

:)Im VERY impressed with all your knowledge on this thread - I find it fascinating!

I live in North Meath/Cavan cold weather always severe. This morning was a Christmas scene.

I travel across the whole County of Meath each day for work and sometimes it seems like a different climate going from point A to B - sometimes not. Birds are going mad though at the feeders for past few days.

Tonight the onset of frost/ice is very strange ... there was the drip/drip/dripping at around 7pm but temps were still 3.5. Later when I was out at 9pm it was 1.0, roads still ok. Now at 11.15pm there's a really strange drip/dripping, but sky is clear for a long time. Would have thought the freeze would have set in by then?

I do think the birds display a warning, anyone agree?

maquiladora

pauldry wrote: »

Ah the flow is too Atlantic based.

Need a more dominant Northeasterly.

Atlantic might bring some snow but mainly mixed precipitation

It's still an evolving situation though. If we can get the ECM to improve just a bit and get the GFS to move towards that then we could be in business. What we want is a deep, cold easterly with lows passing just to the south mixing precip into the colder air. Risky but high reward if everything is in the right place.

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

It's still an evolving situation though. If we can get the ECM to improve just a bit and get the GFS to move towards that then we could be in business. What we want is a deep, cold easterly with lows passing just to the south mixing precip into the colder air. Risky but high reward if everything is in the right place.

Yes a February 25th 1947 type event! We can but dream..

TeaCup2

Eden3 wrote: »

:)Im VERY impressed with all your knowledge on this thread - I find it fascinating!

I live in North Meath/Cavan cold weather always severe. This morning was a Christmas scene.

I travel across the whole County of Meath each day for work and sometimes it seems like a different climate going from point A to B - sometimes not. Birds are going mad though at the feeders for past few days.

Tonight the onset of frost/ice is very strange ... there was the drip/drip/dripping at around 7pm but temps were still 3.5. Later when I was out at 9pm it was 1.0, roads still ok. Now at 11.15pm there's a really strange drip/dripping, but sky is clear for a long time. Would have thought the freeze would have set in by then?

I do think the birds display a warning, anyone agree?

I went to the shop tonight at 8 and my car was frosted over, I live in Waterford......the snowy south east

icesnowfrost

Not as cold tonight in the north east ie Louth as met e said its +3 not - 3 like they said

omicron

Having read all the hype here, I'm finding it hard to understand where it's coming from. There is not one chart from 0-120 hrs on the latest ECM/UKMO/GFS (op&control)/GEM showing uppers colder than -8, and -6 are rare and very brief. There is no low level snow evident in any reliable timeframe - so why is there so much talk about snow?!

Mr Cumulonimbus

munsterlegend wrote: »

Yes a February 25th 1947 type event! We can but dream..

Mmmmmmmmm...........

omicron

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Not as cold tonight in the north east ie Louth as met e said its +3 not - 3 like they said

They said lowest temps -3 to +2, not guaranteed -3.

Oarrack Bama

omicron wrote: »

Having read all the hype here, I'm finding it hard to understand where it's coming from. There is not one chart from 0-120 hrs on the latest ECM/UKMO/GFS (op&control)/GEM showing uppers colder than -8, and -6 are rare and very brief. There is no low level snow evident in any reliable timeframe - so why is there so much talk about snow?!

We don't need -8 850's for snow. That's a myth. We could get snow in -3 given correct variables in other regards. Sunday looking good it really is.:)