LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Larbre34 wrote: »

I think MTs update has injected some much needed reality about the track we're on - heading in the right direction but in the short term only mixed precip and some snow at elevations, although could be a taster for events within a few weeks.

I for one wont be torturing myself with 6 hour ly ups and downs on the 5 day progs. The trend remains our friend.

Hey, at least it is interesting ! :pac:

Harps

Yet more uncertainty :rolleyes:

Had a look through the GFS ensembles and only 4 runs have anything close to resembling the ECMWF at 144h, GEM, UKMO etc all different as well. Still no real snowfall chances and even a cool/cold spell keeps getting watered down so who knows what's going to happen, even the pro's seem to be stumped beyond the weekend

ECMWF once again is all over the place with yet another totally different solution, last night it has no high pressure in the north Atlantic whatsoever and now suddenly there's a high pushing almost as far north as Svalbard, ridiculous!

munsterlegend

Larbre34 wrote: »

I think MTs update has injected some much needed reality about the track we're on - heading in the right direction but in the short term only mixed precip and some snow at elevations, although could be a taster for events within a few weeks.

I for one wont be torturing myself with 6 hour ly ups and downs on the 5 day progs. The trend remains our friend.

Yes MT's update does bring us back to earth. still a lot of firming up to be done but we're probably on current output going to be too far west as per usual until (if it does) that cold air decides to push further west.

Maq and JS did point out yesterday how the ECM could go pear shaped very easily without the heights in place.

leahyl

Looing at Met Eireanns forecast this morning and for the outlook I don't think I've ever seen the line: "Beyond Tuesday the forecast is very uncertain"

Just a one-liner - out on its own :pac:

Do any of the experts on here remember a time when the forecast was this uncertain?

Speak Now

6.30a.m driving to work in Waterford this morning it was showing -1 on car, there was a couple of unexpected fog patches plus it started spitting rain. When i went out this morning i could taste the milder air on the way and with no need for the scrapper due to the ice softening on the windscreen i had assumed a lovely morning for driving. It wsn't RIP to the person that lost their life.

ZX7R

Yes the roads are also bad around my parts the motor bike will be staying in the shead.
I have a feeling there will be upgrades in the next run of model charts i think the strat will start to take affect .

leahyl the forecasts are all over the place not just met eireanns long time since i seen them like that ,but in my head uncertainey is good everything still to play for.
disclaimer i am not an expert:D

Jaffusmaximus

Glacier Point, on 11 January 2013 - 09:26 , said:
The real developing story for me being the impending collapse of the polar vortex. We should be looking around day 9/10 for a complete cleaving in half across the Arctic with tropospheric reponse a few days later. A few GFS ensembles showing this.

Still looking very likely that the second phase of cold will come out of the NE.

pc7

I love this thread! I have no idea what you lot do be talking about but I still read it, thanks for the poster who gave the info on what the charts mean, all I keep looking for now is yellow from the west. Its so exciting!

DeVore

So, is it going to snow or not??

oterra

Gfs is playing a stinker!!!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Snow charts for Monday @18:00

leahyl

t|nt|n wrote: »

Snow charts for Monday @18:00

Ah here!! :mad: :pac:

red_bairn

t|nt|n wrote: »

Snow charts for Monday @18:00

^Image seems to be broken

Lagoona Blue

So with met eireann saying they are "uncertain about the weather after tuesday" why do you think this is? I've never known them to say that before . could it be they don't want to mention snow incase they cause choas and they get it wrong ? or maybe they may predict a major snowfest and need to be absolutely sure ? I prefer the latter

kennyb3

Pretty big downgrade

Tom Cruises Left Nut

red_bairn wrote: »

^Image seems to be broken

Showing fine here and you just quoted the pic !

Redsunset

Get that yellow to sit over Greenland/Scandinavia for a week or more and then your laughing.

Anyway as I've started in the Strat Warming thread. We have to be patient but it's looking very good at the moment with the polar vortices energy going the right way allowing heights to rise in a beneficial place.

JanuarySnowstor

Well it's game over this morning for anything of note snowise for at least a week.
The N-Weather guru's might think the ECM won this but no it most definatly didn't. Just like in December the gfs has been resolute and CORRECT!!
Poor Ian Brown must have been banned for being correct lol

Strat still looking good so hopefully all back here in a weeks time.
Are we getting weary from it ?? YES!!

Ares

DeVore wrote: »

So, is it going to snow or not??

Don't be that guy.

All the knowledgeable posters have said that the models can't predict more than three or four days ahead at the moment.

We can't know with any great degree of certainty yet.

kennyb3

So the GFS massively back tracked last night - now its back tracked the other way. The models are such a mess.

leahyl

Ares wrote: »

Don't be that guy.

All the knowledgeable posters have said that the models can't predict more than three or four days ahead at the moment.

We can't know with any great degree of certainty yet.

I think he was joking

gbee

Should have posted earlier, my iPhone APP said "snow showers" for the coming days for my area.

Checking again for the exact days ... it's changed.

Eastcoastryan

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Well it's game over this morning for anything of note snowise for at least a week.
The N-Weather guru's might think the ECM won this but no it most definatly didn't. Just like in December the gfs has been resolute and CORRECT!!
Poor Ian Brown must have been banned for being correct lol

Strat still looking good so hopefully all back here in a weeks time.
Are we getting weary from it ?? YES!!

How do you know which model has got it right until it has happened?

Are you pyschic (any chance of the Lotto numbers for Saturday)

I bet the GFS changes again later today!

red_bairn

Clearly a sign...got an email advertising snowwear...:D

Redsunset

Ye have yourselves burnt out. I have been sleeping soundly and not paying much attention to models lately because as I said before, when the Strat effects come down fully the troposphere conditions will be turned on there head. This is a major atmospheric event that IS happening right now and will have major input to trop conditions down the road. Will it snow is what everyone wants to know. Get the cold here first and then we can discuss detail.

Harps

Lagoona Blue wrote: »

So with met eireann saying they are "uncertain about the weather after tuesday" why do you think this is? I've never known them to say that before . could it be they don't want to mention snow incase they cause choas and they get it wrong ? or maybe they may predict a major snowfest and need to be absolutely sure ? I prefer the latter

Nope they simply just don't know! Too many different solutions on the various models to have any confidence in a forecast. Nothing at the moment is suggesting any widespread or lasting snowfall but everything from mild south westerlies to easterly blizzards have been projected for next week, my best guess is cool with any snow mainly restricted to high ground but anything could happen yet

whitebriar

DeVore wrote: »

So, is it going to snow or not??

> 50:50 chance at johnny foxes pub on saturday night into monday.
Beyond that higher probability of a milder interlude.

Beyond that still,towards month end,indications of a high pressure system possibly building to our north/northwest feeding in more snow potential from the northeast.

The latter is speculation relating to what we know to be happening,a warming of the stratosphere in artic regions,which should lead to a high pressure system there,extending to one in the atlantic blocking our usual weather type,from the rainy west.
If that happens ,probably from my experience ,a greater than 50:50 probability (looking at these things in an amateur way for decades) then,our weather will drift in from an icy cold continental Europe or Scandinavia.
For the East Coast,that usually means snow and is what happened in nov-dec 2010.

As I like that weather type,the hardship notwithstanding,I don't like posting my thoughts as it jinxes things...but there you have it.

Oh and in this set up weather models struggle.
Currently,they are very poor at guiding forecasters,so they are having to give very short term forecasts (48 hrs) and stress uncertainty after that.

Reason being some models will say snow mageddon is coming only to say the opposite a few hrs later.
No point in met.ie doing the same,they have to say watch this space,it could but we'll tell you within 36-48 if we think it will.

Redsunset

Ares wrote: »

Don't be that guy.

Have some respect for The Monster's Daddy.:)

Jaffusmaximus

The TOWN aka Dundalk starting to lift now

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Redsunset wrote: »

Ye have yourselves burnt out. I have been sleeping soundly and not paying much attention to models lately because as I said before, when the Strat effects come down fully the troposphere conditions will be turned on there head. This is a major atmospheric event that IS happening right now and will have major input to trop conditions down the road. Will it snow is what everyone wants to know. Get the cold here first and then we can discuss detail.

Im loving the banter here though ! Thats keeping me sane