LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

Redsunset

Banter is great I just hope that folks are not getting too stressed out over ever changing models.

Anyway enjoy the rollercoaster I've off to hibernate for another while until. .......

kennyb3

I'm loving the emotional rollercoaster - will make that snow even sweeter

123 LC

if the uppers are zero what temperature would that be on land?

also i honestly have a feeling that we won't have any snow after this few days has played out i don't know how everyone seems so certain of it

DOCARCH

123 LC wrote: »

if the uppers are zero what temperature would that be on land?
(

Theoretically 10c.....a loose rule of thumb....but there are lots of other factors.

Speak Now

123 LC wrote: »

if the uppers are zero what temperature would that be on land?

also i honestly have a feeling that we won't have any snow after this few days has played out i don't know how everyone seems so certain of it

Who's certain

red_bairn

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Who's certain

My cat....

maquiladora

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Well it's game over this morning for anything of note snowise for at least a week.
The N-Weather guru's might think the ECM won this but no it most definatly didn't. Just like in December the gfs has been resolute and CORRECT!!
Poor Ian Brown must have been banned for being correct lol

Strat still looking good so hopefully all back here in a weeks time.
Are we getting weary from it ?? YES!!

Maybe so, maybe not. Things are looking poor this morning for sure. But the models are changing so much its impossible to know with any certainty.

One thing that is worrying though is that we are now a long way off from seeing the type of stunning charts we were seeing all over the place a few days ago. The ECM is the best of the bunch (ignoring what happens later) but its different from its past two runs so its hard to have faith in it just because its what we'd like to see.

Jaffusmaximus

GP on NW

Models exhibiting shocking inter-run and intra run continuity, and that's just the ensemble means !

The only constants that stand out here when assessing the next 10-14 days:

- troughing signal for Europe;
- below average signal for Europe;
- general signal for +ve height anomalies to our north and NE.

Beyond that, don't bother attempting to place any value in model solutions, of any type. A good time to be able to put non-NWP assessment alongside the myriad of options here. With angular momentum increasing off the back of tropical convective waves in the Pacific, we should see the above general synoptic as the benchmark.

Jaffusmaximus

Remember the Models work by processing Data to rules set out by Humans! The weather does not play by these rules all of the time and seeing as the models are getting more chaotic we know something is afoot! Whether that means cold for us or not we just need to wait and see!

Spindle

Redsunset wrote: »

Banter is great I just hope that folks are not getting too stressed out over ever changing models.

Anyway enjoy the rollercoaster I've off to hibernate for another while until. .......

I think that is the right idea, last week all talk was about the impending SSW, then when this cold snap appeared in the models I think people forgot that SSW won't have its impact on the troposphere for a while.

Towards the end of next week is where it will get really interesting, or there will be a lot of crying as SSW doesn't play ball with us.

What we saw this week looked epic to begin with if it came off, but it was just an Apéritif, we still have the first course and main to come

oterra

Are we starting to Clutch? Game starts imho 7-10 days out!
These little glimpses of decent cold are escalating towards what MT has been saying since November last. Have faith, he doesn't get it wrong too often and remember long range FC's are one of his fortes.

Jaffusmaximus

Spindle wrote: »

I think that is the right idea, last week all talk was about the impending SSW, then when this cold snap appeared in the models I think people forgot that SSW won't have its impact on the troposphere for a while.

Towards the end of next week is where it will get really interesting, or there will be a lot of crying as SSW doesn't play ball with us.

What we saw this week looked epic to begin with if it came off, but it was just an Apéritif, we still have the first course and main to come

The upcoming SSW is the MASSIVE Elephant in the room. We just need to wait it out till it obliterates the Polar Vortex. In the Epic Winter of 1947 they flirted with cold for weeks before the last week in January, then these Islands went into the freezer!

Harps

I think its safe to say there's nothing spectacular or particularly cold on the way for the week ahead, its just interesting to see what the final solution will be with such varied output. Some snow still possible but it's not looking like anything more than some brief slushy stuff at best.

A lot of faith is being put on the SSW but there's no guarantee it'll change anything for us at all, maq posted a link of past SSWs in the SSW thread a few days ago and looking through it very few seem to have been followed by a noteworthy cold spell

Larbre34

I agree that we're unlikely to see anything spectacular within 7 days, the Atlantic force remains strong with us pending something with greater energy pushing from the NE. However, the UKMetO are predicting fairly significant wintriness across Britain so from any frontal boundary we may see one or two unpredicted surprises like overnight light snowfalls or streamers in Ulster and Leinster, and Lord knows we all love a surprise fall! UKMetO may of course be playing it safe in order to get the UK local authorities on the right footing, but they cant afford to take the chance.

Regardless, I do feel this is only the appetiser for MTs predicted push of significant event within 2-3 weeks, keep your powder and your sleds dry for the moment folks.

whitebriar

Harps wrote: »

I think its safe to say there's nothing spectacular or particularly cold on the way for the week ahead, its just interesting to see what the final solution will be with such varied output. Some snow still possible but it's not looking like anything more than some brief slushy stuff at best.

A lot of faith is being put on the SSW but there's no guarantee it'll change anything for us at all, maq posted a link of past SSWs in the SSW thread a few days ago and looking through it very few seem to have been followed by a noteworthy cold spell

Yeah,I read nick sussex's post on Nw and he made a good point.
One part of the already split vortex is already dropping down into Canada.Noa expect extremely cold weathef to result in the Ne U.S
The usual effect of that is to spill energy like a cannon into greenland,lowering heights there and firing sw's right left and centre across the atlantic.

In short,that would leave a northerly into Europe and a southwesterly or southerly over Ireland with the strat related freez avoiding us and affecting Europe.

That is also a greater than 50% probability in my view.

Redsunset

Back out of hibernation with just this thought.

There has been a push of very mild air into Asia and this may upset Mr Siberia bringing it further west and linking with high to our north. The retrograde signal should be greatest in couple of weeks. Tell you what the more I look at everything I think MT might just nail this. Anyway bye now.

stooge

Everyone on here seems to be 'fairly' sure of a cold/snow snap in 10-14days or further out. However, has the last week of building up hope not put the dampners on this as well?

This SSW that everyone is talking about is not 100% certain to come into play is it?

Or are ye saying that the long range trend prediction is more reliable/accurate currently than the short range weather?

Genuine question.

Larbre34

whitebriar wrote: »

Yeah,I read nick sussex's post on Nw and he made a good point.
One part of the already split vortex is already dropping down into Canada.Noa expect extremely cold weathef to result in the Ne U.S
The usual effect of that is to spill energy like a cannon into greenland,lowering heights there and firing sw's right left and centre across the atlantic.

In short,that would leave a northerly into Europe and a southwesterly or southerly over Ireland with the strat related freez avoiding us and affecting Europe.

That is also a greater than 50% probability in my view.

How very dare you Sir!

In all seriousness though, thats an excellent point and illustrates one of a few ways Ireland could get stranded on the wrong side of marginal. Anyone remember the specifics of how it played out last year while the continent froze hard?

maquiladora

Here is the thing that has moved in the wrong direction and what he want to see reversed, is possible.

Yesterday's 12Z ECM z500 anomaly chart at 168. Good support for high pressure over Greenland.



Today's chart shows support for the high toppling rather than going northwest.

ZX7R

whitebriar wrote: »

Yeah,I read nick sussex's post on Nw and he made a good point.
One part of the already split vortex is already dropping down into Canada.Noa expect extremely cold weathef to result in the Ne U.S
The usual effect of that is to spill energy like a cannon into greenland,lowering heights there and firing sw's right left and centre across the atlantic.

In short,that would leave a northerly into Europe and a southwesterly or southerly over Ireland with the strat related freez avoiding us and affecting Europe.

That is also a greater than 50% probability in my view.

Is it not also droping down into eastren russia also, witch would it not put us into a north north east air flow,I could be wrong on this.

Spindle

stooge wrote: »

Everyone on here seems to be 'fairly' sure of a cold/snow snap in 10-14days or further out. However, has the last week of building up hope not put the dampners on this as well?

This SSW that everyone is talking about is not 100% certain to come into play is it?

Or are ye saying that the long range trend prediction is more reliable/accurate currently than the short range weather?

Genuine question.

Nothing is 100% that is the beauty of it. Just that there are elements in play that could work in our favour by pushing the cold over us.

You would be foolish to bank on getting a certain weather 10-14 days out, all you can do is look at trends. Some model runs are showing better in the medium term, some in longer term, and they are changing each run.

SSW will favour an easterly moving all the way over us, but we also need a high pressure up around Greenland, to get some blocking set up and cut off the Atlantic, then we need to leave one or two Atlantic fronts to flirt with Ireland creating frontal/battleground snow, then for the easterly to push back again, a few days of this, would do nice

I am all for ramping battleground snow.........Wheter it happens or not

Speak Now

Really am suffering from model fatigue at this stage. Going to check them again on Monday, Dont have the energy to look at 10 chocolate tea pot runs from the GFS between now and then! Enjoy the weekend weather forumites!

Oarrack Bama

Confusing and uncertain is best to describe the forecasts this morning. Hopefully some clarity by the end of the day. ECM best for cold and snow.

maquiladora

I have a lot of respect for MT. He has made some big calls in the past and got it right. And it's a brave man who makes a prediction of what the weather will be like months in advance when a computer the size of an office floor can't figure out if we will have an Atlantic washout or a severe cold spell in under a week!



Anyway, back to the models. I'm hoping for some (good) surprises on the 12 runs. This thread needs something to ramp about! :pac:

Kippure

Model confusion. Didnt joe bastardi and peirs corbyn say this months ago that this would happen?

3 days ahead is enough for anyone.

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

I have a lot of respect for MT. He has made some big calls in the past and got it right. And it's a brave man who makes a prediction of what the weather will be like months in advance when a computer the size of an office floor can't figure out if we will have an Atlantic washout or a severe cold spell in under a week!



Anyway, back to the models. I'm hoping for some (good) surprises on the 12 runs. This thread needs something to ramp about! :pac:

That's the spirit Maq..thought we had nearly lost you yesterday! My optimism is on the wane but it maybe a sub conscious attempt to dampen my expectations!

howlinwolf

glad im in work today or id be on this all day...sounds like some of you are on your last legs with this mad rollercoaster....i think checkin in every 8 or 10 hours is the way to go;) then again something big might happen today and id miss all the fun....ohh the stress of it all

pistolpetes11

MOD NOTE : I SEE MODEL FATIGUE HAS SET IN , KEEP IT ON TOPIC HERE PLEASE , ANY MORE RUBISH AND INFRACTIONS BANS WILL COMMENCE , THERE IS A FEED BACK THREAD FOR MT


THIS HAS TO BE SAID ALSO, ITS THE CRAP LIKE WHAT WAS IN THE LAST 20+ POSTS I HAVE HAD TO DELTE THAT LOST US SOME OF OUR MOST RESPECTED POSTERS IN HERE {SU AND WOLFE to mention but a few} PEOPLE NEED TO REALIZE THAT NO BODY IS GETTING PAID HERE, THERE GIVING UP THERE FREE TIME AND EXPERTISE WHILST TEACHING THE LOT OF US AN AWFUL LOT, A BIT MORE RESPECT IS REQUIRED BY SOME

Cantona's Collars

gbee wrote: »

I'm not sure it's petty TBH. People have been up all night, drinking black coffee, breaking their New Year's resolution and smoking a hundred fags, no sleep and it's what? Seven days now? Nerves are frayed beyond elasticity.

It's cold out though.

Gotten weirdly mild here in Wexford after a freezing start to the day.

Jaffusmaximus

Anyway!

Near time for the 12z Maqs second favourite run of the day seeing as the GFS is choc o block full of new atmospheric data! Wonder what its going to spew out today?