LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

Jaffusmaximus

SU CAMPO is on Net Weather!

Deank

nacho libre wrote: »

by the way is anyone else wrecked from all the snow dancing?? i need a beer at this stage

Freezer beers is what is called for, have a couple of them down, can't beat them, hope you are stocked up....:D

pistolpetes11

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

SU CAMPO is on Net Weather!

If he finds here is hostile to bad news he is in for a shock over there

nacho libre

maquiladora wrote: »

We had some progress in the near term today on some of the models, but the bigger prize is in real danger I think.

or it maybe a case of more patience required before the bigger prize is handed out.

pistolpete's friend gp seems to think so. of course he is not infalliable, nor is m.t., but with these heavyweights having similar thoughts, there is certainly grounds for optimism that irish snow lovers will be rewarded eventually.

maquiladora

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

On the other hand look at all that cold to the North East, is that our beast???

Well is way off in FI, at a time when FI is a lot closer than usual, but I think we should be looking out for something like this now. The second bite at the cherry!

Jaffusmaximus

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Wow if he thinks here was hostile to bad news, they will go off the rails over there

Yeah! Already Su is being put down for the above comment! Anyway best of luck to she/he and its her/his second one! Thats the last ill mention I dont want to give a running commentary of what Su does on NW!

Harps

Not a lot happening again on that run, a meaningful cold spell isn't going to happen without a block somewhere with the Atlantic being quite active. General agreement on a few cool/cold days from Sunday to midweek now with a chance of snow although mainly on high ground. Atlantic looks to be in control again then although no point speculating on details

Jaffusmaximus

maquiladora wrote: »

Well is way off in FI, at a time when FI is a lot closer than usual, but I think we should be looking out for something like this now. The second bite at the cherry!

Yes Maq, I for one am getting bored of this little side show cold snap, I hope someone here will sniff out the ANIMAL MOTHER that we are waiting for!

maquiladora

nacho libre wrote: »

or it maybe a case of more patience required before the bigger prize is handed out.

pistolpete's friend gp seems to think so. of course he is not infalliable, nor is m.t., but with these heavyweights having similar thoughts, there is certainly grounds for optimism that irish snow lovers will be rewarded eventually.

When I say in danger I mean this particular setup were looking for within the next week. I think we'll have another chance without having to wait too long.

Deep Easterly

In the meantime, here is a nice cheerful tune to keep us entertained until the 18z run comes out.

Cantona's Collars

The forecast after the 6.1 news showed a low pushing down from the North on Sunday evening,wonder if it'll drag the cold behind it?

Oarrack Bama

Why are posters worrying about 144 hrs away when the models could not agree 72 hrs in advance this morning? The forecast at that range is going to change - don't give it much attention for the moment i'd say. Main thing is upgrades to 120 hrs for cold right across the main models.

kennyb3

Just reading the December stuff back - do we think we are in a better or worse position? I suppose better in that the uk seem to be close to be guranteed something but we're getting nothing as it stands.

Jaffusmaximus

I really think Simon Keeling over on Weatherweb.tv has got the general idea of what to expect for the foreseeable.

http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

snowstorm445

Oarrack Bama wrote: »

Why are posters worrying about 144 hrs away when the models could not agree 72 hrs in advance this morning? The forecast at that range is going to change - don't give it much attention for the moment i'd say. Main thing is upgrades to 120 hrs for cold right across the main models.

But it's only really that UKMO (of the major models) that show heights rising to the north of us, which is the key to prolonged cold rather than a cool spell with snow over northern hills.

We'll see how it goes but I think we will have to wait. I doubt the models will push cold further west at this stage and will probably remain over Britain.

Rougies

kennyb3 wrote: »

Just reading the December stuff back - do we think we are in a better or worse position? I suppose better in that the uk seem to be close to be guranteed something but we're getting nothing as it stands.

Much better. The December hysteria was largely based on one ECM run that had little support. This time although the models are all over the place, they are all agreeing that cold is on the way. We/they just don't know how cold and for how long yet.

maquiladora

snowstorm445 wrote: »

But it's only really that UKMO (of the major models) that show heights rising to the north of us, which is the key to prolonged cold rather than a cool spell with snow over northern hills.

We'll see how it goes but I think we will have to wait. I doubt the models will push cold further west at this stage and will probably remain over Britain.

UKMO is usually pretty poor at 120-144 in general anyway. Changes a lot, it can often look strangely low res almost like a mean chart. I don't think it handles small details well at that range.

Some of the GFS ensembles are good though

Fuh Q

The cold is coming, I base this on reality and not computer models.
I work nights and spend a bit of time outside, Ive worked many cold frosty nights this winter but last night was the icy'st coldest night so far, now the temp in the car and on my phone didnt drop below -2 but it was worse that nights they showed -4, is it a different type of cold ?
Locks were frozen, gates had frozen closed due to water in the hinges and bolts freezing solid fairly quickly, I had to go get a sledge hammer to force a gate open. My car was frozen solid at 8am this morning, I just about got the door open due to the door seals freezing.
This cold felt different, more intense...

I get a feeling there is something big on the way..

snowstorm445

maquiladora wrote: »

UKMO is usually pretty poor at 120-144 in general anyway. Changes a lot, it can often look strangely low res almost like a mean chart. I don't think it handles small details well at that range.

Some of the GFS ensembles are good though

The GFS Op managed to avoid conforming to its ensemble runs, they've been very inconsistent and contradictory this past week.

Hopefully they're right though. Some straws to clutch at, ya know!

Jaffusmaximus

Fuh Q wrote: »

The cold is coming, I base this on reality and not computer models.
I work nights and spend a bit of time outside, Ive worked many cold frosty nights this winter but last night was the icy'st coldest night so far, now the temp in the car and on my phone didnt drop below -2 but it was worse that nights they showed -4, is it a different type of cold ?
Locks were frozen, gates had frozen closed due to water in the hinges and bolts freezing solid fairly quickly, I had to go get a sledge hammer to force a gate open. My car was frozen solid at 8am this morning, I just about got the door open due to the door seals freezing.
This cold felt different, more intense...

I get a feeling there is something big on the way..

This prediction is far more reliable than the models at the moment!

Mr Bumble

Puzzled by the pulses of mild, drizzle stuff followed by intense grass crisping frost in my neck of the woods over the last three nights and the short time gaps between them. Seems like there's a very abrupt change from one to the other. Is this my imagination or is there a more sensible explanation.

Fuh Q

Mr Bumble wrote: »

Puzzled by the pulses of mild, drizzle stuff followed by intense grass crisping frost in my neck of the woods over the last three nights and the short time gaps between them. Seems like there's a very abrupt change from one to the other. Is this my imagination or is there a more sensible explanation.

Im the same, its like a mild cold pendulum. I have definatly found the last couple of days/night to be different.

youtube!

Mr Bumble wrote: »

Puzzled by the pulses of mild, drizzle stuff followed by intense grass crisping frost in my neck of the woods over the last three nights and the short time gaps between them. Seems like there's a very abrupt change from one to the other. Is this my imagination or is there a more sensible explanation.

I have been noticing that for a few weeks now on and off. You go out in mildish weather after a couple of hours it's absolutely Baltic and an hour later it's mild again WTF is going on with those frequent changes because I have never known it to be quite that extreme in such short spaces of time.

Jaffusmaximus

Fuh Q wrote: »

Im the same, its like a mild cold pendulum. I have definatly found the last couple of days/night to be different.

Next GFS run up soon and that is the biggest pendulum of all!

red_bairn

Tis like a pendulum. This SSW is coming into play. **** gonna hit the fan.

fr wishy washy

Will someone post very disheartening when you press f5 and no new ones lol

Jaffusmaximus

Problem123456

God I will go mad if we miss out on the white stuff and the UK gets plastered

Ghost Train

Jaffusmaximus

Problem123456 wrote: »

God I will go mad if we miss out on the white stuff and the UK gets plastered