LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

cherryghost

ECM not agreeing with GFS or UKMO so far.

force eleven

Right, ECM 120h game over for this round. A chilly but nothing special week ahead. Mild by next weekend. I think a 2 or 3 day break from the models will be a good thing. The weather has been utterly boring this winter.

maquiladora

Wow, out of nowhere, just when you think it's too late, the GFS puts the option of a more sustained cold spell back on the table - with ensemble support.

UKMO & GEM look good too.

ECM totally disagrees.

I said yesterday that unless the the theme changed on the 0Z runs then it would be game over. Well, it's certainly not game over yet.

DOCARCH

ECM : GFS.....Flip Flop! :rolleyes:

Jaffusmaximus

Ah come on!!!!!whats up with the models, they really cant stand being in the same room together! Worries me the ECM has wobbled, only the fact its doing this at t96 is giving me some cold comfort. Also the ECM show nothing of int Next ECM run is make or break I think!

On the GFS I mentioned heights building towards Iceland last night and has continued to run with that idea on the 0z so lets hope it keeps showing and developing on the 6z.

nacho libre

The ecm at short range has the best verification stats. we have to hope in this volatile setup, it's incorrect.

ZX7R

Quite a change around on the GFS ,I would not be surprised if we saw a bit of the white stuff next week:).
So MAQUILADORA you were right about the OZ'S ,what do you think will happen next ,will the ECM upgrade or will the GFSback track

davidsr20

I'm not sure what's more up and down the models or the posters on here lol one poster says upgrade other says downgrade!

maquiladora

nacho libre wrote: »

The ecm at short range has the best verification stats. we have to hope in this volatile setup, it's incorrect.

Yep. Normally wouldn't bet against the ECM. It's strange times though, it's been truely all over the place this week, as all the models have been.

Jaffusmaximus

davidsr20 wrote: »

I'm not sure what's more up and down the models or the posters on here lol one poster says upgrade other says downgrade!

All be cause the ECM decided to do this...............

maquiladora

ZX7R wrote: »

Quite a change around on the GFS ,I would not be surprised if we saw a bit of the white stuff next week:).
So MAQUILADORA you were right about the OZ'S ,what do you think will happen next ,will the ECM upgrade or will the GFSback track

Impossible to call. I think we'll a have a better idea by time all the 12Z runs are out.

nacho libre

i think i'll give model watching a break for the day. i'm just fooling myself if i think i can stay away any longer.

Tabnabs

Keep focused people, eyes one the prize!

maquiladora

ECM ensembles are all over the place, so no clear picture there. Op run was a mild outlier by day 7 though.

06Z GFS coming up soon. I wouldn't be surprised if the GFS flipped back on this one. The 06Z/18Z runs can sometimes be dodgy.

Jaffusmaximus

ECM vs GFS vs UKMO

munsterlegend

Met Eireann and Mt's forecast this morning don't suggest anything too wintry or severe. Still time for upgrades and seems a very volatile flip-flop situation.

JustAThought

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

ECM vs GFS vs UKMO

What is that about!
I thought this was snowchat!!!?
What's going on- have I accidentally stbled into a maths thread- cant understand a thing!!!!

(let it snow ...)

Jaffusmaximus

ECM is all over the shop!

Rodar08

Videos are causing serious lag guys ..... Its making the suspense practically unbearable!!!!

munsterlegend

Just looking at the early stages of GFS 06z - no real major change from what I can see - a slight shift west.

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

Just looking at the early stages of GFS 06z - no real major change from what I can see - a slight shift west.

There are colder uppers over us by the 15th. Looking out for the undercut now.

sean555

GFS upgrades for the East ,-8 uppers by Tuesday night
actually more than the East almost the whole country

BLIZZARD7

-9C uppers clipping east coast by 3pm tuesday....




Dan

maquiladora

Looks like an upgrade in the near term but there is no low undercutting the high by 96 hours like there was in the 0Z so it will be a downgrade for a sustained cold spell unless something unexpected happens.

Jaffusmaximus

Heights have continued to build to the North since last night, trend setting in?, just the ECM holding back on us now!

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

Looks like an upgrade in the near term but there is no low undercutting the high by 96 hours like there was in the 0Z so it will be a downgrade for a sustained cold spell unless something unexpected happens.

Yes certainly a big change from the last run in that regard. as you said earlier will have to wait for afternoon/evening run for confirmation

BLIZZARD7

Angle of the jet starts to go against us/ goes more north at about +96hrs.





Dan

Eastcoastryan

maquiladora wrote: »

Looks like an upgrade in the near term but there is no low undercutting the high by 96 hours like there was in the 0Z so it will be a downgrade for a sustained cold spell unless something unexpected happens.

It's good that we are seeing short term upgrades though, I'm guessing these are more likely to happen, after that I'm guessing it is more likely to change.
If ECM shifted the uppers westwards in the short term.. I'd be happy!

oterra

I suppose anything after 72 hrs is prob F1 judging by the model changes from run to run. Haven't had a run of even 3 outputs showing similar outcomes even in short term, yet?

munsterlegend

Eastcoastryan wrote: »

It's good that we are seeing short term upgrades though, I'm guessing these are more likely to happen, after that I'm guessing it is more likely to change.
If ECM shifted the uppers westwards in the short term.. I'd be happy!

Yeah any snow at all next week would be welcomed. Hopefully the ECM will show the colder uppers shifting West over us. Just looking at GFS 06z furher it seems like the cold is putting up quite a battle?