LET IT SNOW AND BE COLD!!!***RAMPING THREAD***Mod Note #1193#2705

Jaffusmaximus

Well that run keeps much of Ireland under -4 for much of next week and if heights continue to build up north/NE than we could have a reload and extend that cold some bit further. Of course nothing can be ruled out at this stage with all that energy to the NW!

icesnowfrost

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

Well that run keeps much of Ireland under -4 for much of next week and if heights continue to build up north/NE than we could have a reload and extend that cold some bit further. Of course nothing can be ruled out at this stage with all that energy to the NW!

If it all comes off will it improve our chances for snow ?

Jaffusmaximus

icesnowfrost wrote: »

If it all comes off will it improve our chances for snow ?

Once its cold enough anything can happen, snow is very fickle where it will show up, a slight nudge can send it anywhere so it will be within a few hours before any confident prediction can be made!

Jaffusmaximus

Iancar29

Hmmmm , Cold air on Wednesday wont be of any use with slack winds and no precip about...

icesnowfrost

Met E seem to be going with the very cold conditions next week but saying not as cold next weekend

maquiladora

Iancar29 wrote: »

Hmmmm , Cold air on Wednesday wont be of any use with slack winds and no precip about...

The thing I don't like about the 06Z is that it has dropped the undercutting low at around 80-90 hours. So it brings it more in line with the ECM at a timeframe when the ECM is rarely wrong. Even though its colder than the ECM in FI, it has moved closer to the ECM in the more reliable timeframe.

It is the 06Z though, so maybe we'll see things change back on the 12Z.

oterra

The gefs control run although well into F1 has deep frigid air massing in the east. It wants to move west. MT mentioned this in his forecast outlook earlier today. It really looks intense.

munsterlegend

I just think with all these models the positions will constantly be changing back and forth like they have been for the next few days. We always expect the worst for cold weather here here given the Atlantic's dominance. I don't think anyone can say with complete confidence what will happen late next week.

Slashermcguirk

Seems to be only Scotland really getting snow over next few days. Suppose more will be known in the coming days and a lot could change. A lot of uk and ireland seem to be looking at showers of rain / sleet and a lot of cold dry weather

red_bairn

Mr Cumulonimbus wrote: »

FED UP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



Heading off to monitor southern hemisphere cyclone activity..............

rofl. I know a guy who did this in my Leaving Cert year. He was smashing up a metal door in the toilets where we celebrated our Graduation night.

I want snow.

munsterlegend

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Seems to be only Scotland really getting snow over next few days. Suppose more will be known in the coming days and a lot could change. A lot of uk and ireland seem to be looking at showers of rain / sleet and a lot of cold dry weather

While very much in the balance for here - England definitely and probably Wales are going to see snow this coming week. It certainly isn't a Scottish event.

Oarrack Bama

Hi all,

No more clear today than yesterday as to how this will evolve. GFS is not bad - the op run is cold right out to 192 hrs with a chance of snow in the east on Tuesday and Wednesday and also in the southwest and west on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

UKMO is by far the best if you want long term cold. Very cold frosty weather initially before snow showers in the east and maybe the south as well.

ECM goes from the best to the worst and at this stage marginally the most likely. Still very cold till next weekend but little if any snow at low levels. Quick break down back to mild Atlantic southwesterlies.

The rest are a mish mash of various outcomes.

Still very uncertain about next week over all.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Oarrack Bama wrote: »

Hi all,

No more clear today than yesterday as to how this will evolve. GFS is not bad - the op run is cold right out to 192 hrs with a chance of snow in the east on Tuesday and Wednesday and also in the southwest and west on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

UKMO is by far the best if you want long term cold. Very cold frosty weather initially before snow showers in the east and maybe the south as well.

ECM goes from the best to the worst and at this stage marginally the most likely. Still very cold till next weekend but little if any snow at low levels. Quick break down back to mild Atlantic southwesterlies.

The rest are a mish mash of various outcomes.

Still very uncertain about next week over all.

I don't think I have ever seen changes like this so often and at such short time frames.

Its kinda impossible to call it, its always next run

Im loving it ! :pac:

200motels

It's all up in the air pardon the pun at the moment, every run I look at from every model changes either for the the cold or mild weather, it's very hard to get a handle on it

wexie

I've had to resort to making playdoh snowmen

Slashermcguirk

munsterlegend wrote: »

While very much in the balance for here - England definitely and probably Wales are going to see snow this coming week. It certainly isn't a Scottish event.

I wouldn't be too sure, looked a certainty earlier in the week but forecast I have seen and bbc seem to suggest more in the way of sleet in most parts. Temperatures dont seem to be that cold

Pangea

Bit off topic but whats the furthest back the models can go back lads (historically)?

5500

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NewJr7mIrT0

6 years watching the rollercoaster in here and its the same every year!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Pangea wrote: »

Bit off topic but whats the furthest back the models can go back lads (historically)?

1871 !!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php

maquiladora

Pangea wrote: »

Bit off topic but whats the furthest back the models can go back lads (historically)?

Meteociel has GFS archives back to the end of 2007.

Is that what you mean?

munsterlegend

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

I wouldn't be too sure, looked a certainty earlier in the week but forecast I have seen and bbc seem to suggest more in the way of sleet in most parts. Temperatures dont seem to be that cold

I suppose we'll just to wait and see at this stage. Over in the UK they seem to refer to north of the M4 for where snow falls but like any snow the devil is in the detail closer the time.

maquiladora

The UKMO 15 day ensembles are still looking good anyway.

(from TWO)

About half of the MOGREPS ensembles show a big Atlantic slider low for next Friday, could be a lot of snow if that came off. Additionally, very good ensembles in the longer term, most have HP over Scandinavia or Iceland, two have a UK high.

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

The UKMO 15 day ensembles are still looking good anyway.

(from TWO)

which ties in with UK met office update (of course being further west it may mean nothing for us)
UK Outlook for Thursday 17 Jan 2013 to Saturday 26 Jan 2013:

There remains a lot of uncertainty in the details throughout this period, however on the whole it should remain on the cold side across many parts of the United Kingdom, with a good deal of dry and frosty weather, especially for central areas. There will also be some sleet and snow to watch out for on occasion, with perhaps eastern areas most likely at risk seeing any significant snowfall. Also there will be an ongoing risk of icy stretches overnight, and freezing fog may also be an issue during the cold and clearer nights. Some milder conditions and more persistent rain and hill snow though may fringe into western areas on occasions throughout the period.
Updated: 1217 on Sat 12 Jan 2013

Jaffusmaximus

NOGAPS building heights to North @ t144

Gonzo

looking at everything so far i think it's safe to say were not gonna be building snowmen at any stage over the next 4 to 5 days. We look to be on the edge of the cold air with most parts of Ireland staying mainly dry for the coming week with night frosts. Likelyhood of rain, sleet or snow showers in Eastern and nothern areas from tuesday, amounts not substantial, perhaps some lying snow up in the mountains. After wednesday it will either become slightly milder with rain showers or it may become colder with an increased chance of snow showers in the east, nobody really knows. So far the only real risk of snow starting from tomorrow is the eastern edge of the UK, particularly the south-east.

finnharpsboy

Gonzo wrote: »

looking at everything so far i think it's safe to say were not gonna be building snowmen at any stage over the next 4 to 5 days. We look to be on the edge of the cold air with most parts of Ireland staying mainly dry for the coming week with night frosts. Likelyhood of rain, sleet or snow showers in Eastern and nothern areas from tuesday, amounts not substantial, perhaps some lying snow up in the mountains. After wednesday it will either become slightly milder with rain showers or it may become colder with an increased chance of snow showers in the east, nobody really knows. So far the only real risk of snow starting from tomorrow is the eastern edge of the UK, particularly the south-east.

nice and simple for the likes of me to be able to understand

maquiladora

Gonzo wrote: »

looking at everything so far i think it's safe to say were not gonna be building snowmen at any stage over the next 4 to 5 days. We look to be on the edge of the cold air with most parts of Ireland staying mainly dry for the coming week with night frosts. Likelyhood of rain, sleet or snow showers in Eastern and nothern areas from tuesday, amounts not substantial, perhaps some lying snow up in the mountains. After wednesday it will either become slightly milder with rain showers or it may become colder with an increased chance of snow showers in the east, nobody really knows. So far the only real risk of snow starting from tomorrow is the eastern edge of the UK, particularly the south-east.

Those conditions sound about right for Ireland, I wouldn't fancy making any predictions beyond 72 hours though, at least not until after todays 12Z models.

UK snow risk is probably a bit more substantial than that though.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Suppose I'll go recycle the xmas tree while im waiting for the 12zs

davidsr20

Acording to sky news the uk has a level 2 risk of a white blanket