Now that my faith in humanity has been restored...

Denerick

... what will happen to the Republican party?

We can all agree that the 2012 contest was a petty, grubby affair, with absurd arguments and attack ads from both sides, but what we can also agree on is that the Republicans have a big problem. On paper, Obama should have been Jimmy Carter 1980. Instead he is looking more like FDR 1938. He has a built a broad based electoral coalition encompassing trade unionists (Traditionally the core blue collar vote, the most likely to actually turn out amongst that social class), young professionals, minorities (Latinos, Asians and African Americans voted for him in OVERWHELMING numbers), and upwardly mobile females. Republicans have angry white men and plutocrats. As well as religious fanatics.

Anyone with any sense can see that Obama's coalition has within it the makings of a permanent majority. The Republican voters will merely get old and die; many of the Democratic voters are yet to come of an age where they can actually cast their ballot.

In time, this will lead to a more liberal/left wing national consensus.

What, if anything, can the Republicans do to arrest this death spiral?

They've already proven that they can carry a majority of the white vote, a comfortable majority. But that isn't enough any more. They can stack up huge numbers in the old confederacy and get evangelicals to storm into election booths, but this will never again win them a national election. If they hope to win in 2016, they will have to change. They will have to move to the left.

Unfortunately for the future of American politics, I sense that they will instead swing even more violently to the right. In their vain attempt to move the national discourse further rightwards they will only continue to further alienate Hispanics, Asians, African Americans, and a great many women, thus fueling their own demise. It will probably take a Barry Goldwater figure in 2016 in order for them to seriously investigate the causes of their own demise.

Reindeer

I'll throw a couple of Goldwater quotes out here first:

“On religious issues there can be little or no compromise. There is no position on which people are so immovable as their religious beliefs. There is no more powerful ally one can claim in a debate than Jesus Christ, or God, or Allah, or whatever one calls this supreme being. But like any powerful weapon, the use of God’s name on one’s behalf should be used sparingly. The religious factions that are growing throughout our land are not using their religious clout with wisdom..."

“Frankly, these people frighten me. Politics and governing demand compromise. But these Christians believe they are acting in the name of God, so they can’t and won’t compromise.”

Republicans at one point brought the nation together. Now with the extreme right wing hijacking the party, they can do no more than work as a divisive machine. They have arm-barred their own politicians. Because religion still plays a very strong role in some areas, you will see the Republicans linger as local politicians populate the party. Eventually the extremism will wain and the party will meet more in the middle more often. This happened in the 1860's when the north gave the south a beat-down. It happened in the 1960's when the civil rights proponents gave racists and conservatives another beat-down, and it happened the last two elections when the populace got tired of the right wing nonsense and gave them another beat-down.

Some folks ask, "When will the republicans learn?". Well, some of them might, but asking folks that value the 'knowledge' their religion gives them over science is like asking your dog to learn how to drive. Sure, he may pick it up after a few months, and he may get his license, but he never truly understands why he is driving, and he'll still never learn how to merge properly.

donvito99

GOP are up sh1te creek. It appears that conservatism as they know it is becoming less and less relevant in this world, economy, society etc.

Memnoch

I think what the GOP will try to do is to cede ground on immigration in the hope that the rising Latino vote won't split as strongly against them next time. You can already see Hannity flipping on it.

The trick for them is going to be trying to take credit for any immigration reform that gets passed during Obama's second presidency.

Imagine the legacy he'll have at the end of 8 years. Pulled the country out of the worst recession in almost a century. Ended two wars. Killed Bin Laden and crippled the Al Qaida leadership. Created the first kind of truly universal medical care in the US. And then immigration reform on top of that? And that's without counting anything else he might accomplish in his second term.

But yeah, I think the GOP will try to pull off a face saving exercise with immigration but remain largely entrenched on other issues. Also... they'll try to watch their mouths better and not say things like God wants women to get raped or that it's the fault of a woman's body if she get's pregnant by rape. I don't expect much fundamental change.

IvySlayer

Just keep Romney and Ryan away from the ticket. Christie will be another Romney.

Marco Rubio would be interesting.

Brian?

IvySlayer wrote: »

Just keep Romney and Ryan away from the ticket. Christie will be another Romney.

Marco Rubio would be interesting.

Interesting is one word. He's more conservative than Romney on a lot of issues but slicker. He'll draw some Latino vote in the general if he wins the nomination. I don't think he'll win it though, Chris Christie won't either. I think Santorum might or someone of his ilk.

TwoShedsJackson

donvito99 wrote: »

GOP are up sh1te creek. It appears that conservatism as they know it is becoming less and less relevant in this world, economy, society etc.

Demographics are against them. Their biggest supporters, old white people, are dieing off rapidly and being replaced in the voting populace by the more ethnically diverse.

It's their refusal to acknowledge this or try to start appealing to these sections of the population that is doing the damage.

Be like Nutella

I actually hope the Reps get their house in order and that we see more credible Rep candidates coming up. It takes two to tango in the US system. Both sides need to be checked from time to time so it serves nobody to see the Rep die into obscurity as current knee jerk thinking points to.

There are good Rep politicians with their heart in the right place and there are freaky lefties in the Dems just as there are clearly a bunch of fools in the Reps of late. The world is better served by intelligent debate between these two sides so I personally hope the Reps correct their path.

America is more right than left on the military side of things and clearly more left than right on the social side of things. Financial forces pollute both sides almost equally and certainly Obama's first term suffered major financial influence which made bullsh1t out of his 'hope and change' platform. I'm still delighted that Obama won because Romney is... well it's all been said and is clearly evident what he is/was... I just hope he doesn't run again : )

America NEEDS a credible Republican party, a party which can realize it went down a stupid road which serves nobody's interest.... and then as it corrects itself it can possibly change the more ignorant views of its base of older white folk and 'improve' American society... THEY NEED something to follow and these guys are NEVER going to switch sides so rather they improve as a party than slip into a fragmented competition to see who can go farthest right!

poeticseraphim

The problem is the GOP cannot do anything the DEMS cannot do....if immigration is the Dems can do it ...they can probably go further and without losing any voters...the GOP might lose voters not even going as far.

The biggest issue is it seems the GOP cannot control HOW it's members speak in public the 'fifty shades of rape' debacle being a case in point and the racist comments....THAT IS WHAT IT HAS TO TACKLE..you can't ask people to vote for you when some of your members are so audibly hateful and it's perceived elitism.

It alienated women, all minorities and gay people...the white guy in the corner only has one vote

There seems to be a voter in America who is fiscally conservative but socially liberal. He works hard and does not want to be over taxed, he wants his business to do well but he supports minority rights, has gay friends and worries about his teenage girls when politicians keep talking about rape all the time.

Fiscally conservative and socially liberal is where this voter is at right now. ..it is the future of conservatism hopefully.


Then there is the traditional left socially and fiscally liberal.....then the traditional right....which has gone a bit crazy it seems to me ...

But if dems get the economy straight ..that's it...game over

joseph brand

The GOP are at risk of fading into obscurity. At the moment they're like that crazy man on the bus, who everyone wishes would just get off at the next stop.

Although it's great news that they lost, it doesn't bode too well for America having a two-party system; the opposition being conservatives lamenting over the America of the 1940's. There was no such thing as gay people back then, they're only a 'modern' invention, along with rights for women and minorities. And everyone went to mass. Those were the days. :rolleyes:

A democracy needs a decent opposition, and all the GOP were offering in their campaign was a sequel to the Bush-Cheney-Rumsfeld years. The GOP needs to be purged. Start with Mitch 'chins' McConnell and John 'tears' Boehner. Otherwise it's curtains.