AI: Ireland v South Africa; Aviva Stadium, Sat 10 Nov [MOD WARNING POST #1160]

Clareman

Final warning before bans start getting handed out.

Attack the post, not the poster and if posters start getting into a bickering contest ALL posters involved will be banned.

wicklowwonder

I genuinely think we are reading too much into the selection. If Kidney had the All Blacks at his disposal I think he would still send them out to play a game that belongs on 90s/2000s. the game has moved on, Kidney hasn't, you can have the best players in the world but when the game plan is awful they wont perform well.

totallegend

irishbucsfan wrote: »

You'd swear some people just want to pick their favourite 15 players every week.

They just talk about who they like and don't refer to how theyd affect the game of rugby that happens to be taking place this week after the main event (kidneys squad selection).

I agree, but...

Reading the Times this morning, Gerry Thornley is going on about how Murray is not the form pick but he's there for his physicality. Fair enough, he's a big unit for a 9.

But when has DK ever picked Reddan for his ability to play at a higher tempo than Murray (or TOL before him)? When has Kidney ever said "begorrah, maybe it would be better if we whipped the ball away from the base a bit more quickly, I'll give Eoin a go"?

[the answer is never, see this wonderfully researched post:
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=79120695&postcount=37 ]

The coach either:
a) has one set of tactics (keep it tight, earn the right to run it etc) OR
b) picks his players and his tactics independently of each other OR
c) both of the above

I'm going for (c) myself.

So essentially you're asking random internet punters to apply better logic than the national coach. Which most of us could, really.

OldRio

Looking forward to this.
Should be fascinating what type of game plan we use.
Lets hope it is the right one.
Not happy with one or two selections but heyho I've more things to worry about than that.
Ireland by 7

laugh

Will this be the end of the "Earls is an international standard centre" debate?

Fishooks12

laugh wrote: »

Will this be the end of the "Earls is an international standard centre" debate?

In what sense. Did he not prove in the six nations that he is one?

Also, I noticed that many corners of the web (not here mind) are complaining about D'arcy's selection. In my mind he's been really good this year

CIARAN_BOYLE

Fishooks12 wrote: »

In what sense. Did he not prove in the six nations that he is one?

Also, I noticed that many corners of the web (not here mind) are complaining about D'arcy's selection. In my mind he's been really good this year

Like DOC he has been good and solid and he offers experience but there are better options

danthefan

totallegend wrote: »

Reading the Times this morning, Gerry Thornley is going on about how Murray is not the form pick but he's there for his physicality. Fair enough, he's a big unit for a 9.

It was the exact same rubbish we heard from Thornley back when TOL was in contention. TOL was "just the man for Genia" (in the RWC, how did that turn out again?), "physicality around the fringes", blah blah blah...

Fishooks12

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Like DOC he has been good and solid and he offers experience but there are better options

are there? I mean I don't know who I'd be comfortable with starting against the Bok's at 12 other than Darcy

CIARAN_BOYLE

Fishooks12 wrote: »

are there? I mean I don't know who I'd be comfortable with starting against the Bok's at 12

sorry I meant to say that the view thats out there

McFadden could be argued for but he hasn't had enough time at 12. Wallace has been in pretty good form but Kidney wouldn't play a style that uses his strengths. McSharry is a bit young but I'd love to see him against Fiji.

To be honest I think Darcy is the best choice but I can understand anyone have differing points

.ak

Fishooks12 wrote: »

In what sense. Did he not prove in the six nations that he is one?

Also, I noticed that many corners of the web (not here mind) are complaining about D'arcy's selection. In my mind he's been really good this year

It's been a long time since D'arcy has been bad for Leinster in fairness... But it's been a long time since he's been decent for Ireland.

We shall see..

irishbucsfan

.ak wrote: »

It's been a long time since D'arcy has been bad for Leinster in fairness... But it's been a long time since he's been decent for Ireland.

We shall see..

He was very good in the 2nd test wasn't he?

.ak

irishbucsfan wrote: »

He was very good in the 2nd test wasn't he?

True, forgot about that.

Fishooks12

Kirchner is a real weakness IMO. He's got a decent boot but it's woefully inaccurate sometimes and he offers little in attack

CatFromHue

irishbucsfan wrote: »

He was very good in the 2nd test wasn't he?

Very good or good?

I'd say he was just good. Nothing more to be honest.

ray jay

Remember that D'Arcy's selection was probably somewhat influenced by the lack of experience that would have resulted with the introduction of a second young centre. I would certainly like to see someone fresh play 12 for the Fiji game at least.

tolosenc

Fishooks12 wrote: »

That's bollox.

No one is going to take these kinds of posts seriously with crap like that in them. Murray actually playing well at the moment, and he's a decent 9.

It is hyperbole, but Murray has been quite indifferent in the overwhelming majority of the games he's played as a pro. I have my doubts that he is good enough for international rugby right now. Whether he will be in the future, I don't know. In some areas he's very promising, in others he needs an awful lot of work.

I think it's quite widely accepted that it should be Reddan starting for Ireland.

Emperor1989

I find it strange listening to the Irish media in regards to South Africa they do not have a clue.

Simply put the Boks are expecting to beat Ireland easily this weekend, 10 point win is the general consenus from the fans down there.

I noticed the usual fools like Brent Pope are out spouting about Ireland etc and being simply rude to this South African team.

Bekker is a liability and Kruger is a simply better player, that 2nd row with Eben will clean the Irish boys easily, Francois Louw with Alberts and Dane Vermulen should have little trouble handling this Irish Backrow, peter O Mahony will be found out, we will see what Henry is about but Heaslip rarely delivers when the pressure is on for Ireland unlike Leinster.

Pieenar grand scrumhalf for SA till they get a proper SA like Du Preez or Joost coming through the ranks, Lambie is basically a test at fly half as Goosen will be the Springbok number 10 for a long time if he fulfils his potential which he has proven. The centers are poor for South Africa as JDV offer little and the JDT is a full back but should have no worry against a joke of Darcy and Earls who rank up as one of the worst centers partnership in the BIG 8. Houghaard is solid but again better players are coming through and will take his position. JPP is a world class winger and could cause mayhem if Lambie plays with him a bit. Kirchner is solid just like Gordon Dempsey doesn't make mistakes and that in fairness is a solid choice. Offers little at FB but for this transitional team its a good call.

Front row is the only place Ireland can realistically compete with SA but again SA with there power will put enormous pressure on them and there paper thin back 5. Boks again losing some very good props with Cooenie injured but CJ and Gurthro are and in Gurthro case still world class props who have left for foreign pastures. Bimark is a huge loss as he is the best hooker in the world and his brother rarely lasts 60 mins these days.

Comfortable win for the Boks who are missing so many players and Meyer is not giving the young guys a chance really. I suspect that South Africa will bully the Irish and pick on Zebo to win by 13+ come the end.

jamiedav2011

Emperor1989 wrote: »

I find it strange listening to the Irish media in regards to South Africa they do not have a clue.

Simply put the Boks are expecting to beat Ireland easily this weekend, 10 point win is the general consenus from the fans down there.

I noticed the usual fools like Brent Pope are out spouting about Ireland etc and being simply rude to this South African team.

Bekker is a liability and Kruger is a simply better player, that 2nd row with Eben will clean the Irish boys easily, Francois Louw with Alberts and Dane Vermulen should have little trouble handling this Irish Backrow, peter O Mahony will be found out, we will see what Henry is about but Heaslip rarely delivers when the pressure is on for Ireland unlike Leinster.

Pieenar grand scrumhalf for SA till they get a proper SA like Du Preez or Joost coming through the ranks, Lambie is basically a test at fly half as Goosen will be the Springbok number 10 for a long time if he fulfils his potential which he has proven. The centers are poor for South Africa as JDV offer little and the JDT is a full back but should have no worry against a joke of Darcy and Earls who rank up as one of the worst centers partnership in the BIG 8. Houghaard is solid but again better players are coming through and will take his position. JPP is a world class winger and could cause mayhem if Lambie plays with him a bit. Kirchner is solid just like Gordon Dempsey doesn't make mistakes and that in fairness is a solid choice. Offers little at FB but for this transitional team its a good call.

Front row is the only place Ireland can realistically compete with SA but again SA with there power will put enormous pressure on them and there paper thin back 5. Boks again losing some very good props with Cooenie injured but CJ and Gurthro are and in Gurthro case still world class props who have left for foreign pastures. Bimark is a huge loss as he is the best hooker in the world and his brother rarely lasts 60 mins these days.

Comfortable win for the Boks who are missing so many players and Meyer is not giving the young guys a chance really. I suspect that South Africa will bully the Irish and pick on Zebo to win by 13+ come the end.

I'd agree with that, but I'd wager that that accusation could be reversed at yourself tbh!

JustinDee

Fair enough for a fan's view. I'd also agree that there is an air of whimsical complacency about Irish pundits and followers alike. No pushovers. They might have an area for an opponent to focus on in one part, but in others they are a strong unit with plenty of dangerous talent.
I watched them this morning at the Captain's Run. Well zeroed in on tomorrow. If Ireland did beat them, they'd have to play damn well to do so.

Emperor1989

jamiedav2011 wrote: »

I'd agree with that, but I'd wager that that accusation could be reversed at yourself tbh!

Fair enough if you see it that way but IMO I think Irish Pundits overinflate the Irish team beyond belief.

As I say South Africa expect to win this easily without too much fuss. You wouldn't think it the way the Irish Media have covered this particular match.

JustinDee

Emperor1989 wrote: »

Fair enough if you see it that way but IMO I think Irish Pundits overinflate the Irish team beyond belief

They most certainly do not do that. However, they (and this is a very broad brush I use here) do have a tendency to overlook strengths of opponents thus denegrating how good they actually are.

giannip

I'm smiling reading the comments.

As a SA fan, I have the same concerns but erm..in the other direction :-)

I think Ireland have the slight edge. I can't pinpoint it, just a feeling.

3 out of 4 wins, playing at home, super motivated captain and some exciting new players thrown in.

My head still says 50/50 either way but the heart is slowly tilting towards Ireland.

The thread poll isn't helping either..

It should be good!

Zzippy

Emperor1989 wrote: »

Fair enough if you see it that way but IMO I think Irish Pundits overinflate the Irish team beyond belief.

As I say South Africa expect to win this easily without too much fuss. You wouldn't think it the way the Irish Media have covered this particular match.

Ah heeyorrrr! Leave it out!

Look mister, our country's fcuked, our economy's gone down the tubes, we've got a coach who hasn't a clue. Leave us alone with our optimism til kick-off at least!

giannip

Emperor1989 wrote: »

Fair enough if you see it that way but IMO I think Irish Pundits overinflate the Irish team beyond belief.

As I say South Africa expect to win this easily without too much fuss. You wouldn't think it the way the Irish Media have covered this particular match.

Really ? Where does it say they expect to win it easily ?

http://www.iol.co.za/sport/rugby/springboks/boks-ireland-set-for-fiery-clash-1.1420527#.UJ0cxcUxrik

As SA fan, I don't think is true..

.ak

Well, no doubt SA will be strong favourites, and rightly so.

Emperor1989

JustinDee wrote: »

They most certainly do not do that. However, they (and this is a very broad brush I use here) do have a tendency to overlook strengths of opponents thus denegrating how good they actually are.

Just because they are good individual players on there own doesn't mean they are a good team. A coach makes a good team IMO and we obviously don't have a particulary good coach at this current stage of Irish rugby development.

This is a team that failed in 2007 miserably and failed better but not by much in 2011. Many of the same faces are still hanging around from then for good or bad.

I fear for this coming International campaign that we may be staring at being possibly the worst home nation.

.ak

Also, regarding the media, they're always going to be biased, right? I would imagine the lads will keep their noses out of the papers on match week build up.

Emperor1989

giannip wrote: »

Really ? Where does it say they expect to win it easily ?

http://www.iol.co.za/sport/rugby/springboks/boks-ireland-set-for-fiery-clash-1.1420527#.UJ0cxcUxrik

As SA fan, I don't think is true..

Check some for the rugby forum's the Boks fans expect to win this without too much fuss, the media also think so as they rightly point out this is a Irish side decimated by injury.

South Africa will win and win without a worry IMO.

This is only my opinion and is just as justifiably as yours!! as they say everyone has one

Fireball07

SA shouldn't win without a worry... if they do, I'll be extremely disappointed. We are decimated by injuries, but SA have been hit hard too. Steyn, Habana, Du Plessis, Du Preez, etc.

JustinDee

Emperor1989 wrote: »

Just because they are good individual players on there own doesn't mean they are a good team. A coach makes a good team IMO and we obviously don't have a particulary good coach at this current stage of Irish rugby development.

This is a team that failed in 2007 miserably and failed better but not by much in 2011. Many of the same faces are still hanging around from then for good or bad.

I fear for this coming International campaign that we may be staring at being possibly the worst home nation.

I don't think you got what I was saying.
I was referring to the Bokke. Not Ireland.
As for the Irish squad, let's see how these tests go. I disagree with your call for sea-change. NOT one selection panel has ever done this unless there was no alternative.
In my view, the time for certain changes to be made and bullets to be bitten is not the November series but the next stage in the RWC cycle ie. Six Nations.

Enjoy the game anyway.

Fishooks12

It's going to be tight either way. Would be very surprised to see the boks win by more than 10. And tbh, I have a feeling we'll edge it

Teferi

It's gonna be 3 - 5 points either way I feel.

ionadnapokot

Ireland without BOD, POC & SOB are in for a tough night. Alberts, Etzebeth & Kruger will be a real handful for Ireland and ultimately SA will have too much power for the Irish pack.
I hope McCarthy, Henry and O'Mahony put in a good shift and Zebo plays like an international FB.
SA to score a couple of Tries and win by 5-10pts

Emperor1989

I do appreciate all your points.

In my view I am looking at a Springbok world class team in the making. Eben Ebezeth is arguably already a World Class second row and just out of his teens, Kruger is a hell of a player also who played superbly against the English in the summer. You throw in William Alberts( who has been quiet) of late but could blossom at anytime a big physical fetcher at 7 in Louw and arguably one of the best Springbok dometically in Duane Vermulan with a powerful frontrow. One of the best tightheads in Guthro on the bench, Cj van der Linde, Flip van der merve and Marcell Coetzee who is a fantastic player and anyone who watched the Sharks will know what a little engerizer bunny of a player he is and only out of the team due to the need for a number 7/fetcher.

Ireland have never really every dominated a pack when full strength on form and now with this patchwork back 5 against a Bok pack that cooled the Blacks away from home with realitive ease and very inepxierenced also its hard not to see how the Boks cant just pumbbled this Irish pack and the set piece at lineout especially is a concern with a new hooker. How can the irish backs do anything when they will be going backwards up front with a lazy scrumhalf and a pretty average backline(scoring tries) and a winger playing full back against a team that kick the ball high and chase hard. Nevermind the fact that the Boks are getting near 2 stone and a few inches at 12/13 and pace of the wings and strong runners in JPP and especially Pierterson. This Irish team shipped near 100 points in 3 tests down south during the summer and have a poor 6 nations. I can't see much optimism. Thats my view anways...look forward to tomorrow!

Grimebox

I'm very surprised Paddy Power has SA to win by only 5

Fishooks12

Emperor1989 wrote: »

I do appreciate all your points.

In my view I am looking at a Springbok world class team in the making. Eben Ebezeth is arguably already a World Class second row and just out of his teens, Kruger is a hell of a player also who played superbly against the English in the summer. You throw in William Alberts( who has been quiet) of late but could blossom at anytime a big physical fetcher at 7 in Louw and arguably one of the best Springbok dometically in Duane Vermulan with a powerful frontrow. One of the best tightheads in Guthro on the bench, Cj van der Linde, Flip van der merve and Marcell Coetzee who is a fantastic player and anyone who watched the Sharks will know what a little engerizer bunny of a player he is and only out of the team due to the need for a number 7/fetcher.

tbh I'd agree there's some serious grunt in the SA pack. But you seem to be focusing far too much on the positives rather than the negatives, and doing the opposite with the Irish team

Grimebox

Fishooks12 wrote: »

tbh I'd agree there's some serious grunt in the SA pack. But you seem to be focusing far too much on the positives rather than the negatives, and doing the opposite with the Irish team

Nice to some bias going the other way for once around here!

Emperor1989

In fairness i except that point, SA weakness Lambie at 10 completely unproven. A full back playing 13 and past it number 12 with a disappointing winger in Houghaard of late.

Alberts gone missing also of late and a very inexpierenced back 5 in the South African pack with a Conor Murray type in Pieenar who seems rather inefficient these days in regards of South Africa.


SA Have massive questions to answer also but they can always resort to type and kick the leather off the ball if Lambie more wider game doesnt come off and against this irish pack 9/10 they win this match with those type tactics.

The match for me is decided in the pack and Lambie and the rest maybe able to just coast around south dublin without even being tested!

Tox56

We've won 3 of the last 4 vs the Springboks and ROG missed a conversion for a draw the last time we played them at the Aviva, so we seem to like playing them.

We probably aren't favourites tomorrow, and it will be a good win with all the players we have injured, but we don't have a mental block against them like we do against NZ for example.

Fireball07

South Africa have a huge amount of power in their pack, there's no doubt about that. But the game isn't all about power and grunt, and I don't think they'll blow us away. They'll probably have the upper hand but not destroy us physically. Our set-piece should be solid...we'll hope Healy is okay. POM is another good lineout option, and we're hoping Strauss will have a good day with his darts.

And Sexton is a much better 10 than Lambie imo, and that's the most important position. He generally knows when to do the right thing which is a huge plus. We're not going to make ground all the time, if he kicks the corners well when he has to and puts up a few garryowens for the likes of Zebo and Bowe to chase, he'll set us up well. And he should be able to get our backline moving.

Murray has a few faults, but I'd never call him lazy, defensively he gets through a lot of work and anyone who's watched him this season knows he's been doing the basics very well. His box-kicks are also pretty good even if he telegraphs them a bit sometimes. We do need Earls to have a good game offesnively at centre, he's got the pace, he's got the ability, he needs to threaten the backline.


South Africa have a big pack but I'd say their backline is unspectacular... it could be a lot stronger if they had all their players available. Don't think there will be much in it at all.

who_me

IMO Reddan's a good scrum half, but not in great form. It's hard to know how to evaluate several Munster players, given the way the new gameplan has shaken things up, effectively taking the pack out of the game in many ways.

We don't have any perfect 9 at the moment. Reddan and Stringer were opposite ends of the scale - Stringer not going near the ball unless it's secure thus slowing down our phase play; ok for forward play but dreadful when we need to play a quicker, more mobile game. Reddan is the opposite, picking up the ball then looking for options - great to play heads-up rugby, but makes him vulnerable to being scragged / intercepted. Still, he should be the form choice.

Still, I'd love to see Marshall and Sexton given a go at some point during the Autumn internationals.

leonard7

This is how i see it mano a mano (IMO)

1. Cian Healy v 1. Mtawarira - Healy better
2.Richardt Strauss v Adrian Strauss - Richardt better
3. Mike Ross v Jannie du Plessis - Jannie better
4. Mike McCarthy v Eben Etzebeth - Etzebeth better
5. Donnacha Ryan v Juandre Kruger - Ryan better
6. Peter O'Mahoney v Francois Louw - Louw better
7. Chris Henry v Willem Alberts -Alberts better
8.Jamie Heaslip v Duane Vermeulen - Heaslip better
9. Conor Murray v Ruan Pienaar - Pienaar better
10. Jonny Sexton v Patrick Lambie - Sexton better
12. Gordon D'Arcy v Jean De Villiers - De Villiers better
13. Keith Earls v Jaco Taute - 50/50
14.Tommy Bowe v J.P Pietersen - 50/50
11. Andrew Trimble v Francois Hougaard - Trimble better
15. Simon Zebo - Zane Kirchener - 50/50

its a close call between the teams and the issues with selection well i think cave would be roughly the same as taute, zebo would match hougaard both speed demons, reddan still wouldnt be better than pienaar, and i dont think we have a 15 available better than zane kirchener and trust me i dont think he is good

Banbridgeman2

Are you insane?? Kirchner 50/50 with ZEBO?!?!!?

Banbridgeman2

Kruger better than Ryan, vermuelen 50/50 with Heaslip, taute better than earls, hougaard better than Trimble and Kirchner miles ahead of Zebo!

sixy

Cant wait for the game, hope zebo has a good game. Really happy for Henry, he is class, hope he takes his chance

leonard7

Banbridgeman2 wrote: »

Are you insane?? Kirchner 50/50 with ZEBO?!?!!?

maybe so but i can tell you now i aint the only one on boards place turns into a looney bin round ireland time

jamiedav2011

Individual matchups and ratings like these mean very, very little in real terms though.
Zebo may be even with Kirchner for example in overall terms, but you'd far rather have Kirchner starting as your full back tomorrow for eg.

Individual matchups in the front 5 is particularly futile, while Murray + Sexton won't be able to do much if SA are putting them on the back foot on attacking ball.

Fishooks12

Banbridgeman2 wrote: »

Kruger better than Ryan, vermuelen 50/50 with Heaslip, taute better than earls, hougaard better than Trimble and Kirchner miles ahead of Zebo!

:rolleyes:

Have you ever seen Zane Kirchner play?

Fishooks12

The only thing Kirchner has over Zebo is international experience and more familiarity with 15

Virtually every other facet of Zebo's game is more appealing. Kirchner would struggle to start at 15 for any other test nation