Lightning,Torrential Rain & Gale Force Winds for Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning

ninebeanrows

Really interesting divergence in models.

ECM has swung to bombing this low but keeping it well to our northwest

Earlier GFS runs just had a non descript wave feature heading to our south and into France.

Quite significant differences at a short enough timeframe.

As an example:

At this short range i will re-introduce a Storm Watch as models are beginning to toy with a more aggressive outcome.


GFS 90hrs



ECM... 96. and 120

ninebeanrows

As example of wind potential:

Here are the 925hPa winds at 90hrs.

70 knot winds at this level could certainly mix to lower levels in association with the heavy precipitation
( So we could see wind gusts to as high as 65 knots at the surface if this were to occur )

EDIT: Looks like being a reallytricky system, a forecasters nightmare could be about to unfold. Tomorrow could be interesting,,,, watch this space. We could be upgrading to Level 2 in the morning.

whataboutnow

Netweather's 10day at glance predict 64mm of rain for monday in Castlederg Co.Tyrone. I check this everyday and they're usually spot on. May be an indication of the possible storms intensification as they was nothing worth noting yesterday

ninebeanrows

Will be interesting to see how the 12z plays this.

Still very high uncertainty with regard to the evolution and path of this low

ninebeanrows

No alarming developments from the 12z GFS

Low does develop but shows no exceptional intensification.

A 985mb low moves just to our northwest, giving some extremely heavy rainfall to large parts of Ireland.

Some strong gales in association with the passage of the warm front on Sunday.

Wind gusts to ground level near 55/60kt Sunday.

ninebeanrows

Do we finally have some consistency?

UKM does look more threatening. And if this system were to decide to head circa 10mb lower than progged it would all of a sudden be a very threatening storm.

Certainly forecasters in Irish Met & MetOffice will be watching this very closely.



UKM @72hrs



GFS @ 72hrs

whataboutnow

Legendary Michael fish forecast for the week ahead. He mentions severe gales in the north and west in the second half of his forecast. The rainfall echoes are extremely intense too especially in northern areas. http://www.netweather.tv/

Deep Easterly

That is one hell of a complex low pressure system that tonight's ECMWF is projecting for the early days of next week in the mid-Atlantic with a lot of mesoscale features within the larger, flabbier low.





From vedur.is

ninebeanrows

18z continues the threat of a moderate level storm.

At the moment we are staying steady with forecasts of wind gusts to 60/65 knots.

Just take a look at the 850hpa winds

Su Campu

Is a Level 2 not a bit ott? It's a normal depression, going to bring a few hours of strong winds to exposed locations, and some decent gusts to others. We get umpteen of these every year. This one is no different.

Level 1: Slight Chance of a Severe Event
Level 2: Moderate Risk
Level 3: Seek Shelter

I really think it's not even Level 1 on that scale.

ninebeanrows

Su Campu wrote: »

Is a Level 2 not a bit ott? It's a normal depression, going to bring a few hours of strong winds to exposed locations, and some decent gusts to others. We get umpteen of these every year. This one is no different.

Level 1: Slight Chance of a Severe Event
Level 2: Moderate Risk
Level 3: Seek Shelter

I really think it's not even Level 1 on that scale.

I do think the Levels/wording need updating.

I suppose the moderate was to indicate, a moderate chance of it occurring.

The slight chance of a severe event can lead people to think, there is a 20% of a severe event etc.

I will look into updating these thresholds.

ninebeanrows

Su Campu wrote: »

Is a Level 2 not a bit ott? It's a normal depression, going to bring a few hours of strong winds to exposed locations, and some decent gusts to others. We get umpteen of these every year. This one is no different.

Level 1: Slight Chance of a Severe Event
Level 2: Moderate Risk
Level 3: Seek Shelter

I really think it's not even Level 1 on that scale.

But i also disagree with 'upteem of these every year'

I think we get around circa 2-5 of these types of systems per year. There is a lot of energy in this system when it hits Ireland.

Su Campu

Weathercheck wrote: »

But i also disagree with 'upteem of these every year'

I think we get around circa 2-3 of these types of systems per year. There is a lot of energy in this system when it hits Ireland.

Of course it will be a welcome change to the recent drab, but it's still not a Carmen or Kyrill. They would be a Level 1-2 on that scale. I agree that there is a moderate, or even higher, chance of it happening, but it won't be a "Severe" event. A change of the wording would be a good idea alright, as would the addition of maybe one or two more levels.

Iancar29

A bit windy ... a bit wet

ninebeanrows

0z's up the ante a bit.

I have the suspicion this will be upgraded in the next day or 2 and may end a bit further northwest.

0z 925hPa winds

So real poss of wind gusts to 60-65kts and potentially up to 70kts in areas of very good mixing.

maquiladora

Met Eireann :

Winds will be strong and gusty south to southwesterly with gusts of 80 to 100 km/h in exposed places.

Not looking severe or unusual for this time of year really. Looks to be windy along some coasts but I can already see the posts from people living inland "Just a bit of wind...what storm?" etc.

whataboutnow

maquiladora wrote: »

Met Eireann :



Not looking severe or unusual for this time of year really. Looks to be windy along some coasts but I can already see the posts from people living inland "Just a bit of wind...what storm?" etc.

I agree. Nothing out of the ordinary. Doesn't even deserve a thread about it

ninebeanrows

whataboutnow wrote: »

I agree. Nothing out of the ordinary. Doesn't even deserve a thread about it

Interesting opinion.

Meanwhile back to the storm system.

The 6z has become more keen on deepening this depression to the west of Ireland.

The highest winds still appear in association with the warm front passage but could be possibly some severe winds in assoc with the wrap around if the system continues to be progged to deepen.

Here is the 66hr chart for midnight Sunday.



925hPa winds (possibly low level gust range)



Sustained 10m winds

Storm 10

whataboutnow wrote: »

I agree. Nothing out of the ordinary. Doesn't even deserve a thread about it

Of course it deserves a thread, how many systems have been posted on this board that were far more severe than Met Eireann forecast, it could be very interesting to see how it turns out dont forget this is a weather forum thats what we do here talk about the weather good or bad.

Redsunset

whataboutnow wrote: »

I agree. Nothing out of the ordinary. Doesn't even deserve a thread about it

Boards.ie is a discussion forum.

You are currently in a designated area of this forum that deals in the discussion of weather.

There is a potentially strong depression approaching and like minded folks on here are currently discussing its potential course, severity etc.

This is what we do here.

Thank you.

P.S.

Talk about the weather in a constructive manner please.
End of discussion.

whataboutnow

Redsunset wrote: »

Boards.ie is a discussion forum.

You are currently in a designated area of this forum that deals in the discussion of weather.

There is a potentially strong depression approaching and like minded folks on here are currently discussing its potential course, severity etc.

This is what we do here.

Thank you.

P.S.

Talk about the weather in a constructive manner please.
End of discussion.

O give over. I'm entitled to my opinion as much as anyone else. 70mph could be reached in malin head which is nothing unusual. I'm looking at the facts not dreaming about a hurricane. engage your head please. Thank you

And I`m well aware this is a thread to discuss opinions ive been here for years thanks for stating the obvious.Please tone down your condescending behaviour in future

Redsunset

whataboutnow wrote: »

O give over. I'm entitled to my opinion as much as anyone else. 70mph could be reached in malin head which is nothing unusual. I'm looking at the facts not dreaming about a hurricane. engage your head please. Thank you

And I`m well aware this is a thread to discuss opinions ive been here for years thanks for stating the obvious.Please tone down your condescending behaviour in future

You said it doesn't even deserve a thread, well once again I will state that this is what we do here when something that may be of interest is approaching.

Eh who said anything about a hurricane. No one.

No further discussion on this.

maquiladora

Well, I think it does deserve a thread. There is very little to talk about with the weather here at the moment so at least it's something to follow over the next few days and to see the changes with the models etc.

It's just that it doesn't look too severe or unusual for these exposed coastal areas to see weather like this in the autumn.

Wolfe_IRE

Have always found the GEM to be an interesting aside when it comes to wind events.

The 0z has a completely different take on matters
http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/geme_cartes.php

blackbird99

met éirean have change the colour scale on the rainfall radar just in time for this event

Iancar29

blackbird99 wrote: »

met éirean have change the colour scale on the rainfall radar just in time for this event

Wooo!!! finally , one that i think will be good!

pauldry

Redsunset wrote: »

You said it doesn't even deserve a thread, well once again I will state that this is what we do here when something that may be of interest is approaching.

Eh who said anything about a hurricane. No one.

No further discussion on this.

I use the weather forum every day to read weather discussions, rumours, facts, forecasts.

So far November has been a quite month. Cold at the start then mild and misty up to now. There is an active low approaching on Sunday night which may not bring storms but will bring windy conditions. It is good to know of these conditions coming because apart from studying the models it is only on discussion forums that you read about them.

Met Eireann and UK Met Office can only forecast for up to 10 days because people complain so much to them if their long range forecasts are wrong. Your ordinary Joe soap like me can make an educated guess and risk being wrong without too much implications.

I, and many other amateur forecasters need boards weather forum to educate me and open the weather rumor mills daily.

So IMO id say discuss any approaching weather that is different and even discuss the boring mild nothingness with a thread!

Storm 10

Have to say that I have learnt so much about the weather on this forum its great both from storm systems and fine weather etc and of course not forgetting the banter from posters.

stevenmu

Weathercheck wrote: »

I do think the Levels/wording need updating.

I suppose the moderate was to indicate, a moderate chance of it occurring.

The slight chance of a severe event can lead people to think, there is a 20% of a severe event etc.

I will look into updating these thresholds.

So for the moment is it fair to say that Level 2 in this thread indicates the predicted severity of the event, rather than the chance of an especially severe event occurring?

DOCARCH

stevenmu wrote: »

So for the moment is it fair to say that Level 2 in this thread indicates the predicted severity of the event, rather than the chance of an especially severe event occurring?

I think it's vice versa.