Lightning,Torrential Rain & Gale Force Winds for Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning

gbee

stevenmu wrote: »

So for the moment is it fair to say that Level 2 in this thread indicates the predicted severity of the event, ......

I always took it to mean this, as did, obviously 99.9% of casual viewers. First I heard of this convoluted potential of anything arriving at all percentage, is in this thread.

It does not make any sense to give a warning that a prediction might occur with 66% certainty at a level 2. If we are only discussing predictions and not actual events, should this whole threat level thing just be moved to FI?

DOCARCH

gbee wrote: »

I always took it to mean this, as did, obviously 99.9% of casual viewers.

It is getting a little confused alright! Maybe the thread needs to be brough back to Level 1?

ME's latest forecast is for gusts of 80 to 100 km/h 'in exposed places'. O.k., that's windy, but, by no means severe.

I take it (or took it) that the Level 2 warning is to note the potential for the system to develop further into something more noteworthy.

howlinwolf

DOCARCH wrote: »

It is getting a little confused alright! Maybe the thread needs to be brough back to Level 1?

ME's latest forecast is for gusts of 80 to 100 km/h 'in exposed places'. O.k., that's windy, but, by no means severe.

I take it (or took it) that the Level 2 warning is to note the potential for the system to develop further into something more noteworthy.

yeah i agree the potential/severity issue is confusing a lot of people, from what i can gather through here and ME its looking like a wet and windy spell sunday into monday but its november and personally speaking thats a common enough thing most novembers i can remember so maybe level 2 is over doing it a bit.obviously it has the potential to strenghten and maybe level 2 will be correct but at the mo 80 to 100 km/h in exposed places and 50 to 70km/h in the majority of place doesnt seem extreme. although i am defo enjoying the possible storm weather after all the drab and dreary weather:)

Harps

While nothing too severe, the area of low pressure associated with Mondays 'storm' looks extremely complex with several centres of pressure and mesoscale features developing over the course of the week so its likely to throw a few surprises our way and definitely going to be interesting to watch

The 12Z GFS has up to 5 lows effecting us in one way or another between now and next weekend so a very wet and windy week ahead

Deep Easterly

Harps wrote: »

While nothing too severe, the area of low pressure associated with Mondays 'storm' looks extremely complex with several centres of pressure and mesoscale features developing over the course of the week so its likely to throw a few surprises our way and definitely going to be interesting to watch

This morning's ECMWF showed an interesting little feature developing just south of Iceland during Monday. Small but very tightly packed low by Tues 00z. Image from yr.no.

Su Campu

So this is a storm now? It really has been a quiet period of weather recently for there to be such hype over an area of low pressure.

Redsunset

Su, the thread title is the same as the last two days done up by Weathercheck.

Certainly an unsettled wet and at times windy period coming up.

ninebeanrows

Su Campu wrote: »

So this is a storm now? It really has been a quiet period of weather recently for there to be such hype over an area of low pressure.

Such hype? I thought you got your point across last night with regards to the Levels and we are going to change them.

Such systems that develop in this region and move towards Ireland and the UK are often termed as 'storm systems'.

Su Campu

No, if I remember correctly up to last night it was risk of windy weather. The storm part has appeared today. I stand to be corrected on that.

Anyway, I'm going off topic. It will certainly be windy but on current models the northwest will see the strongest winds. If it does deepen further then it will turn away from us, but I see little chance of that happening.

ninebeanrows

Su Campu wrote: »

No, if I remember correctly up to last night it was risk of windy weather. The storm part has appeared today. I stand to be corrected on that.

Anyway, I'm going off topic. It will certainly be windy but on current models the northwest will see the strongest winds. If it does deepen further then it will turn away from us, but I see little chance of that happening.

It was there yesterday

All changed now to reflect the current projections.

cherryghost

IMO there should be a 5 tier level system.

1. Developing system
2. Slight risk
3. Moderate risk
4. [Warning]Damage/Flooding likely
5. [Warning]Severe Damage/Flooding.


Also, instead of levels, they're DEFCONs, and reverse the order as it should be, but also to confuse some other users :pac: Imagine people's horror if we ever got a DEFCON 1 warning :P

Su Campu

The "low" is really only a low-level system. From 500 hPa and upwards it makes no impression on heights, and in fact if anything an upper ridge lies above the surface low. Any upper support it had from a small fragmented jet streak disappears and the low ends up winding down harmlessly to our north during Monday. In fact, today's 12Z GFS analysis has the jet core displaced further eastwards from the low centre, meaning it has even less support for intensification than it did on earlier runs.

This has been the picture the ECMWF has been painting all along, and the others are now falling into place. I would not be surprised to see the thing downgraded further on future runs.

00Z GFS, showing no upper feature near the surface low



300 hPa jet

Sparks

cherryghost wrote: »

Also, instead of levels, they're DEFCONs, and reverse the order as it should be, but also to confuse some other users :pac:

Ah, you can't use DEFCON when it's so obviously WXCON

Deep Easterly

Latest HIRLAM has peak mean windspeeds of Gale 8 along Connacht coast by around 18z on Sunday which transfer to east coast by about midnight. Blustery in between.

Su Campu

The Spanish Met's Marine forecast goes out to Sunday and gives the low attaining 982 hPa as it passes to our northwest.

http://www.aemet.es/es/eltiempo/prediccion/maritima?opc1=1&opc2=2&zona=atl1

SITUACION GENERAL A LAS 00 UTC DEL DOMINGO 18 Y EVOLUCION:
BAJA DE 1004 SOBRE EL MAR DE ALBORAN, DESPLAZANDOSE AL ESTE Y
RELLENANDOSE A 1008. OTRA DE 994 AL NORTE DE ALTAIR SE DESPLAZA
AL NORDESTE HACIA EL NOROESTE DE IRLANDA Y SE PROFUNDIZA A 982.
ALTA DE 1026 SOBRE EL SUR DE AZORES DESPLAZANDOSE AL SUR Y
DEBILITANDOSE A 1020.

General Situation at 00UTC Sunday and further outlook.
................Other low of 994 north of Altair moves northeastwards towards the northwest of Ireland and deepens to 982 hPa......

ninebeanrows

Overview for eastern + southeaster areas late Sunday into Monday.

Heavy rain arriving evening Sunday, winds steadily increasing.

Sustained winds to 25kts inland and upto 35kt along coastal fringes.

Wind gusts inland as high as 50kt and upto 60/65kt along some exposed costal areas.

The gales or severe gales will last ~12 hours from late Sunday through to Monday morning.

Su Campu

Not connected, but over 100 mm of rain have fallen at Malaga Port this morning. Some nice thunderstorms there too I was told.

http://www.aemet.es/es/eltiempo/observacion/ultimosdatos?k=and&l=6172O&w=0&datos=img&x=&f=precipitacion

howlinwolf

gone a little quiet on this, was wondering what the models are sayin.

any sign of the system strengthening or is the quietness a sign its a damp squid?

Redsunset

Was never anything major, just something to talk about amongst the nothingness.

Su Campu

This had the potential to be a deep storm system as it has plenty of tropical moisture in it but the problem is that it is very shallow, with no upper support. Any deepening is coming mostly from low level baroclinic forcing as the moisture-rich tropical airmass mixes with the cooler polar one, but as this gradient mixes itself out then the it runs out of steam and starts to fill again. This will happen later tomorrow as it passes to our northwest. Had there been a stronger jet in a better place then it could have been a dinger but this was never really on the cards.

ninebeanrows

ECM develops an alarming feature at 72hrs, it just develops suddenly from a small shortwave in the circulation and develops into a rapidly moving low. Bombing 25mb in 24hrs

ninebeanrows

Concerned heads in the Met this evening!

A 72 hour surprise!!

Pleasuredeath

Weathercheck wrote: »

Concerned heads in the Met this evening!

A 72 hour surprise!!

What would it bring ?

Sponge Bob

Mmmmm. a bomb

Harps

Nothing too severe if it plays out as projected tonight, 50kt winds not too far off shore though so a slight change in track and it'd be a stormy day on the west coast

M.T. Cranium

The incoming low has a well-placed ship available currently at 51N 23W where it has 11 C and a southeast wind (not too strong yet), we may get a report at 21z with the low moving closer.

The Tuesday night potential now looks stronger if the model consensus is correct (considerable variation on the 12z runs) and may produce wind gusts that are 10-15 knots higher than Sunday night's event. My estimates for Sunday night are only 47-53 knot max gusts, could see 55-65 on Tuesday night if the isobars are as tight as ECM suggests.

The Sunday night event is on track to bring some very mild air across the south, temperatures in the warm sector are currently 16-18 C and there will not be a lot of occlusion so places like Shannon and Cork may get a brief period of 14-15 C temperatures as this passes.

whataboutnow

Snow recorded at knock 19.00 http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

Deep Easterly

Here is the projected mean windspeeds from Windfinder, which I think uses the high res GFS model. While no storm, still looks like it could be nasty tomorrow evening with driving rain and gusty winds. Not unusual November weather by any means, but certainly unusual for this November so far.



From http://www.windfinder.com/forecasts/superforecast_ireland_animation.htm

M.T. Cranium

Ship did not report at 21z, probably will at 00z ... check back and I will report on this as well as the 00z position and central pressure from CMC maps that appear about 01z ... my report should be available around 0100h.

Harps

18z GFS has gusts over 60kts in Clare, Galway and Mayo from the second low on Tuesday. Still nothing too severe but interesting at least when compared to what this Autumn has thrown at us so far