Lightning,Torrential Rain & Gale Force Winds for Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning

Su Campu

Forget tomorrow's low, Tuesday night's looking like a real nasty piece of work. Very strong gradient on its southern flank. The jet this time is in the right place, with strong upper divergence leading to rapid deepening. Less moisture gradient this time but still enough to give an interesting night of wind.

This one does deserve its own thread.



The jet at the base of the trough leads to strong upper divergence in its left front quadrant just to the west of Ireland (large + area)

jirafa

It looks that even after next weekend, we might be dew some more of the same,,depending on what way the charts go.

whataboutnow

Su Campu wrote: »

Forget tomorrow's low, Tuesday night's looking like a real nasty piece of work. Very strong gradient on its southern flank. The jet this time is in the right place, with strong upper divergence leading to rapid deepening. Less moisture gradient this time but still enough to give an interesting night of wind.

This one does deserve its own thread.



The jet at the base of the trough leads to strong upper divergence in its left front quadrant just to the west of Ireland (large + area)

Su would you hazard a guess at possible wind speeds from this system? Thank you

Harps

whataboutnow wrote: »

Su would you hazard a guess at possible wind speeds from this system? Thank you

Already shown in the chart I posted above, 60kts+ possible along the west coast on tonight's predictions

M.T. Cranium

Low is apparently now around 51N 25W with central pressure 992 mbs, and the strongest wind on any ship report is from 45N 27W still ahead of the cold front (15 C with 31 kt SW wind). Anyway, think this is on track to deliver the marginal blow that most here are expecting. Tuesday night potential now the larger concern and we await 00z model runs for updates on that. The energy involved is hanging well back in the complex low that now covers most of the North Atlantic, probably somewhere closer to Labrador and south tip Greenland than anywhere else.

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Low is apparently now around 51N 25W with central pressure 992 mbs, and the strongest wind on any ship report is from 45N 27W still ahead of the cold front (15 C with 31 kt SW wind). Anyway, think this is on track to deliver the marginal blow that most here are expecting.

Yep, 992 hPa on latest analysis. We should start to see a general drop in MSLP from around noon tomorrow along the west coast as low approaches with around a 8.0 to 10. hPa fall by around teatime.




These are the forecast MSLP values by the OSLO HIRLAM model for both Belmullet and Johnstown for tomorrow in 3 hour intervals. Just going to keep them on record and compare them to the actual values recorded at both these stations to see how well this Hi Res model has prognosed this system within this small grid zone.

whataboutnow

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/warnings.asp warning from met eireann

cyclops999

Buoy M6 wind gusts reporting 27- 35 kts @ 11.00 am

Sponge Bob

1007 Belmullet 11am
1013 Johnstown 11am

I'm impressed Bang on 1 hour early. Damned if that model ain't good, just 1 hour ahead of projection but otherwise bang on.


Edit 12z 1006 and 1012 in the 12z. I'll check @ 2 again

Edit again 14z

1004 in Belmullet 14z
1011 in Johnstown 14z

Edit yet again 17z

997 In Belmullet 17z (out by -1)
1009 in Johnstown 17z (out by -1)

Edit yet yet again 20z

992 in Belmullet 20z (out by -2)
1006 in Johnstown 20z (out by -2)

Final Edit 23z

990 in Belmullet (out by -1)
1003 in Johnstown (out by -2)

All in all, pretty damn good modelling.

absolutely final edit 08z 19/11

987 in Belmullet (out by -2)
997 in Johnstown (out by -2)

These are the forecast MSLP values by the OSLO HIRLAM model for both Belmullet and Johnstown for tomorrow in 3 hour intervals. Just going to keep them on record and compare them to the actual values recorded at both these stations to see how well this Hi Res model has prognosed this system within this small grid zone.

whataboutnow

Is there a new thread for tuesday storm or are we keeping it on here folks?

Su Campu

06Z GFS has lost Tuesday's one but the ECMWF and UKMO still have it.

whataboutnow

I seen that Su. Do you think it will still materialise?

whataboutnow

Farming weather didn't go in to any detail about Tuesday storm. Disappointing

Oscar Bravo

Shannon Sigmet number 1 issued for severe turbulance currently in the SW moving NE at 20kts and intensifying.

Su Campu

whataboutnow wrote: »

I seen that Su. Do you think it will still materialise?

I would say more likely than not. The Hirlam (below) for 1700Z Tuesday has almost hurricane-force sustained winds around an eastward-moving low to our west, with up to 50 knots along the west coast and in the Irish Sea. If that continues it could bring severe winds over much of the country later that night.

I wouldn't mind what the 06Z GFS says, I would be more interested in the 12Z.

Su Campu

Tonight we should actually see the strongest winds along the south and east coast and channeled through the Irish Sea, so places like Waterford Airport and Aberdaron, Wales, should be getting the highest readings (Aberdaron is on a 300 ft cliff).

Waterford Airport's forecast up to midnight has 32 gust 50 knots

EIWF LOCAL AREA FORECAST VALID 181500/182400 WIND 18020G32KT BECMG 1618 18026G42KT TEMPO 1820/1824 18032G50KT VISIBILITY 9999 BECMG 1517 5000 BECMG 1820 3000 TEMPO 1924 1500 WEATHER -RA CLOUD SCT012 BKN020 BECMG 1618 SCT006 BKN010 BECMG 1820 SCT003 BKN006 TEMPO 1924 BKN003 CLOUD HEIGHTS GIVEN ABOVE MSL=

BALLHOPPER

What a load of rubbish, there hasnt been a decent storm since Hurricane Debbie in autumn 1961 when pressure dropped to 932 millibars

Su Campu

BALLHOPPER wrote: »

What a load of rubbish, there hasnt been a decent storm since Hurricane Debbie in autumn 1961 when pressure dropped to 932 millibars

That's it, get it off your chest. :rolleyes:

Planet X

:D:D:D:D

snaps

not much happening today here.

Oscar Bravo

Met Eireann's take on the week ahead updated at 1613-

The weather this week will be very unsettled with some very wet and very windy spells and some disruptive conditions possible.

Monday night: Windy and cloudy with scattered outbreaks of rain. Lowest temperatures 4 to 9 degrees.

Tuesday: A spell of heavy rain will clear to sunny spells and some passing showers. Highest temperatures 10 to 13 degrees. A very windy day with a possibility of gales and storm force damaging gusts in the west and northwest as a deepening storm depression in the Atlantic tracks close to the northwest of Ireland. More heavy rain will develop over the southwest, west and north with sleet over high ground.

Wednesday: Some sunny spells and overall although cloudy with some showery outbreaks of rain, many areas will have a good deal of dry weather. A very windy day with strong southerly winds gusting to gale force. Relatively mild with temperatures of 10 to 13 degrees.

Thursday: Another wet and windy day with spells of heavy rain. Continuing relatively mild and windy with temperatures again 10 to 13 degrees in strong to gale force southerly winds.

Friday & next weekend: A high possibility of cold weather with a mixture of sunny intervals and heavy showers of rain and hail.

whataboutnow

In their fc this morning they had a possibility of severe or very severe gusts in the west and NW. Hope it happens,we need something ha

gbee

Started about noon, we've 8mm of rain
My wind is 25km/h now EICK 35km/h

As I often say, it feels stronger out in it and it's cooooold, never mind the 8.7°C rising, barro is stoning it, 995hPa. my handheld says 1005hPa.

whataboutnow

Also in the countryfile weather fc they have a system lying across Ireland all day thursday. They murmured at the possibility of flooding

whataboutnow

Alert just issued from netweather http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=weather-alerts;reg=2;sess=

M.T. Cranium

Report on models so far (12z run) for Tuesday storm potential. GFS develops rather weak system that arrives early (about 06h) and would be weaker than today's event. German GME is out, was similar to ECM last night, maintains a fairly strong low that arrives late Tuesday, not as intense as previous run but about as strong as tonight's event. Canadian GEM is out to 48h as of this post and appears to be developing a storm, 982 mb low at 18W by 12z. Expecting the 60h panel to show storm conditions at least equal to those on GME as mentioned. Check back for either edit or update on that.

UK and ECM yet to roll out. The resolution problem seems to be challenging the models on this because the Tuesday energy is somewhere between the two centres of low pressure that are tonight's approaching system and the low hanging back near Greenland, that one moves slowly southeast and forms the basis for Thursday's third event which, who knows, could get its own series of upgrades later.

I heard of Three Dog Night but this may be Three Storm Week.

Oscar Bravo

Gusty in exposed areas/open locations at them moment:

Johnstown Castle-Gust 23 Knots
Connaught-Gust 28 Knots
Mace Head-Gust 36 Knots
Roaches Point Gust 38 Knots
Sherkin Islands-Gust 40 Knots
Valentia-31 Knots.
Pressure ranging from 999 to 1009 across the country.

Su Campu

Kerry Airport

EIKY 181520Z 17020G37KT 140V210 6000 DZ FEW023 09/07 Q1002=

Oscar Bravo

Wind varying quite a bit down there Su.

cyclops999

M6 Buoy down to 989.4