Lightning,Torrential Rain & Gale Force Winds for Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning

Oscar Bravo

A Ryanair flight diverted from DUB to EINN,i persume a runway change taking place? a few in the hold too.

Bsal

Forecast winds over Dublin airport at 00z

3000ft 213@68
2000ft 205@67
1500ft 197@56

So about 5nm out from rwy16 that gives a 45kt headwind and 33kt crosswind. There must be a good bit of shear from 1500ft to the surface. 56kts down to around 20kts at the surface at the moment.

New TAF for Dublin

EIDW 182300Z 1900/1924 17024G36KT 9999 SCT010 BKN022
TEMPO 1900/1909 4000 -RA SCT004 BKN007
PROB40
TEMPO 1900/1905 19028G44KT
BECMG 1910/1912 22020KT
BECMG 1916/1918 20010KT
BECMG 1920/1923 17014KT

Su Campu

Bsal wrote: »

Forecast winds over Dublin airport at 00z

3000ft 213@68
2000ft 205@67
1500ft 197@56

So about 5nm out from rwy16 that gives a 45kt headwind and 33kt crosswind. There must be a good bit of shear from 1500ft to the surface. 56kts down to around 20kts at the surface at the moment.

GFS 0-1 km shear at 21Z. 50 kts +

Su Campu

...and Casement TAF

TAF EIME 182300Z 1900/1909 18030G46KT 9999 SCT013 BKN024
TEMPO 1900/1909 4000 -RA SCT004 BKN006=

Bsal

A few Sigmets too, severe turbulence and severe iceing across Ireland.

WSIE31 EIDB 182030
EISN SIGMET 04 VALID 182045/182345 EINN-
EISN SHANNON FIR SEV TURB FCST LAND AREAS BTN SFC/FL050 NC=

WSIE31 EIDB 182130
EISN SIGMET 05 VALID 182136/182336 EINN-
EISN SHANNON FIR SEV ICE FCST NE OF LINE N5330 W00530 - N5430
W01000 BTN FL080/170 MOV NE AT 20KT NC=

Oscar Bravo

The Ryanair which diverted is now on the way back to DUB,EI-DAH. Flat calm now in Castlebar with heavy Drizzle.

Bsal

There's a good risk of some lightning in the west in the early hours too

Oscar Bravo

Its coming up to 2355 so its over to Met Eireann on RTE Radio 1 for the general and Sea Area Forecast,they are sure to mention Tuesday....

Su Campu

I'm just listening back to ATC and that Ryanair 1673 from Krakow hadn't near enough fuel. They requested to be allowed to land within 10 minutes and were denied so they diverted to Shannon. Cutting it short again. Not even enough fuel for any holding. :rolleyes: I think we'll be hearing more on this.

Oscar Bravo

I was wondering why they were the only one to divert!

Bsal

Not even enough fuel for any holding

Thats terrible airmanship. They new the weather was going to be bad so there's no excuse for not carrying a bit extra.

Su Campu

Bsal wrote: »

Thats terrible airmanship. They new the weather was going to be bad so there's no excuse for not carrying a bit extra.

Awful indeed, but unfortunately that's not an isolated incident when it comes to Ryanair. I'm not bashing them but there have been several such incidents in the past couple of months.

Sponge Bob

Bsal wrote: »

Thats terrible airmanship. They new the weather was going to be bad so there's no excuse for not carrying a bit extra.

Everybody is safe in Shannon, it is pissing rain, you cannot eat in the airport and there is no way to Dublin till morning.

Now what????

Su Campu

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Everybody is safe in Shannon, it is pissing rain, you cannot eat in the airport and there is no way to Dublin till morning.

Now what????

They took off again and have just landed at Dublin.

Bsal

They'll probably refuel the aircraft at Shannon and be on their way back to Dublin tonight, in the end its costing them more. All they had to do was carry around 1500kgs more fuel and there wouldn't have been a problem.

Edit..Su got in before me.

dfx-

Rougies wrote: »

Very windy here for the past hour with very strong gusts. Bins and garden furniture getting thrown around. Closer to Casement than Dublin Airport here in D.16.

I was around Terenure/Rathgar from 2030 to 2115 and it was bursts of rain/wind. So much for the downplaying..

Also I noticed on my walk home, a few miles from Baldonnel that signage in an exposed area nailed to wood then onto a steel fence are now lying across the road. Would've been some gust to knock them over, they're there for years.

Harps

Still no consensus on tomorrows event, GFS doesn't develop it and ECMWF doesnt seem to do much either, UKMO and a few others still keen on it though

German model is interesting

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Ported by Matt Hugo on Twitter this morning:

Spindle

Just wanted to say thanks for the heads up on this event. Although not a major storm, it still was nice to know what could be arriving in, long before Met Eireann can report on it, as had a drive back from the Wexford down to Cork.

It was a pretty bad drive with standing water, driving rain, gusts etc. But at least I knew what to expect and that this wasn't going to be like the xmas eve storm in 96, which I was also driving in, an experience that I never ever want to repeat.

Storm 10

Met Eireann gave a warning this morning on RTE1 at about storm force winds with damaging gusts from tomorrow into Wednesday

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Spindle wrote: »

Just wanted to say thanks for the heads up on this event. Although not a major storm, it still was nice to know what could be arriving in, long before Met Eireann can report on it, as had a drive back from the Wexford down to Cork.

It was a pretty bad drive with standing water, driving rain, gusts etc. But at least I knew what to expect and that this wasn't going to be like the xmas eve storm in 96, which I was also driving in, an experience that I never ever want to repeat.

Drove from Liffey Valley back to Naas last night down the N7, it was like a river, not fun at all !

Darwin

Storm 10 wrote: »

Met Eireann gave a warning this morning on RTE1 at about storm force winds with damaging gusts from tomorrow into Wednesday

Yes they are showing 85Km (!) mean wind speeds on the map along the west coast for tomorrow. GFS doesn't seem to be buying into it at all.

snaps

Non stop rain here in mayo for 24hrs. Still tipping it down now. Water is sitting on fields everywhere. Its depressing weather.

Oscar Bravo

Met Eireann update 1140 Tomorrow-Rain in Leinster and Ulster for a time tomorrow morning, but gradually clearing northwards. Sunny spells in the afternoon with some showers in the west. Becoming very windy, especially along the west coast with very strong, gusty southerly winds. Highest temperatures of 11 to 13 degrees.

maquiladora

Just highlighting this from the Met Eireann forecast. I haven't looked at the models yet myself.

Tuesday night will start very windy in the North, Midlands and East with severe or damaging gusts locally and with the North coast most at risk.

ZX7R

Does anyone know was there any lightning last night with the storm

gbee

ZX7R wrote: »

Does anyone know was there any lightning last night with the storm

http://brunnur.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/index.html

This says, none.

maquiladora

06Z NAE does show 85 km sustained winds just reaching the exposed west coast tomorrow night. 90 km winds offshore. Inland from the coast its just windy, not stormy.



Shifts in intensity and track by then could change things a lot either way.

ninebeanrows

Tuesday night/Wednesday's forecast still hasn't been nailed on.

The uncertainty arises from the developing low to develop two centres. If the focus to the more southerly centre then there is a severe threat to some parts of the country to damaging winds. However the more favoured outcome is for the more northerly centre to absorb the more southern centre and the result is a much lower risk.

Very uncertain situation.

ZX7R

This is waht met eireann have to say in the outlook in there forecast issued a 19 n0vember 2012 time 11:40

Tuesday night will start very windy in the North, Midlands and East with severe or damaging gusts locally and with the North coast most at risk. It will be wet in Northern areas also but the rain will clear overnight and the gales will abate. It will then turn cold as the winds fall light with frost and fog forming.