Third Annual Winter Forecast Contest -- enter by 1st December

sunflower3

DEC-IMT 3.1
JAN-IMT 4.2
FEB-IMT 3.8

DEC-PRC 90%
JAN-PRC 110%
FEB-PRC 85%

MAX 14.5

MIN -7.2

SNOW - 10 cm

GUST - 65 knts

Mmcd

5.4
4.9
2.9

90
95
65

15.7
-14.2

21.5 cms

77 knots

cdev

DEC-IMT 3.9
JAN-IMT 4.1
FEB-IMT 5.1

DEC-PRC 86%
JAN-PRC 101%
FEB-PRC 114%

MAX 12.6

MIN -13.9

SNOW - 26cm

GUST - 87knts

homolumo

5.1
4.5
4.0

95
109
120

13.6

-7.1

11cm

73 kts

dasa29

DEC-IMT 4.5
JAN-IMT 4.0
FEB-IMT 4.5

DEC-PRC 95%
JAN-PRC 105%
FEB-PRC 110%

MAX 10.0

MIN -14.0

SNOW - 45cm

GUST - 80knts

rameire

5.4
4.6
4.8

89%
120%
85%

13.2

-6.6

3cm

64

John mac

5.8
4.8
3.9

97
106
90

12.7
-8.9

8.6 cms

76 knots

JFKIRELAND

4.9
4.7
2.5

85
99
65

14.1
-10.3

12.1 cms

69 knots

Sponge Bob

5.2
4.9
5.2

90
90
90

14.7
-7.9

6cm

79kt

MiNdGaM3

3.8
2.2
5.1

90
80
125

15.6

-11.9

40 cm

69 knots

waterways

4.8
4.8
4.0

90
100
110

15

-9

8

72

nilhg

5.5
5.1
5.0

90
115
105

14.2

-5.3

4CM

71kts

DOCARCH

5.2
4.8
4.2

94
105
85

16.2
-8.6

22.8 cms

79 knots

Wolfe_IRE

3.9
4.4
5.9

95
105
110

14.9
-8.5

20cm

59 knots

lostinashford

4.2
4.3
6.2

95
90
105

13.8
-5.3

9cm

68kt

okla

Apologies for the late entry.

4.2
4.9
3.1

90
108
80

14.8
-11.2

20

75kts

BLIZZARD7

DEC-IMT 2.3C
JAN-IMT 0.4C
FEB-IMT 2.4C

DEC-PRC 86%
JAN-PRC 90%
FEB-PRC 105%

MAX 14.2C

MIN -17.5C

SNOW - 83CM

GUST - 70





Dan

Danno

DEC-IMT 5.2c
JAN-IMT 2.7c
FEB-IMT 3.2c

DEC-PRC 85%
JAN-PRC 65%
FEB-PRC 75%

MAX 13.8c

MIN -11.2c

SNOW 40cm

GUST 94kt

M.T. Cranium

Thank you all for entering, as per the rules, Sunday's entries will be penalized but I will make the same guarantee as last year -- the penalties will count towards the scores but not towards your chance of winning the 20 euros (this guarantee ends at 0300h Tuesday for 10 and 20 point penalties). Another guarantee is that my score does not count, so you've got one guy beaten already!!

Here's how it works -- contest winner per the rules wins 20 euros, highest penalized player who otherwise beats that score also wins 20 euros. I didn't have to pay out on that last year, "traecy1" won either way.

I will have some tables of entries up soon for comparison. Your seasonal IMT and PRC values will be generated from your monthly forecasts.

Good luck everyone, starting at 0301h you're looking at 20 penalty points but as stated above, you're still in with a chance of winning something.

There is no absolute deadline, just very little point in entering after 0300h Tuesday unless you want to experience the excitement.

M.T. Cranium

All the forecasts -- order by seasonal mean temperature (high to low)

FORECASTER ........ IMT (DJF)/(mn) ..... PRC (DJF)/(mn) ..... MAX/MIN .... SNOW ..... GUST
_____________________________________________________________

karl tyrrell .........6.1..5.9..6.4...6.1...086..091..117...098....14.2..-22.0.....49.5....96
pauldry ........... 4.3..6.3..6.1...5.6....089..097..088...091....15.1...-9.1.....3.8....69
eskimocat ....... 7.8..5.5..3.6...5.6....073..080..076...076....14.0..-11.0.....17.0....68
Strasser ......... 4.3..6.1..6.4...5.6...100..100..100...100....13.4...-7.5.....10.0....64
Bsal ............... 5.4..5.2..5.2...5.3....095..145..122....121...15.1...-8.4.....14.0....71
traecy1 .......... 5.3..4.8..5.7...5.3....090..085..110...095....15.1...-7.7.....7.0....65
nilhg .............. 5.5..5.1..5.0...5.2...090..115..105...103....14.2...-5.3......4.0....71
Sponge Bob .... 5.2..4.9..5.2...5.1....090..090..090...090....14.7...-7.9......6.0....79
Harps ............ 4.9..4.6..5.9...5.1....090..080..130...100....14.9...-9.1......4.0....83
FionnMcCool87.. 4.8..5.3..5.1..5.1...095..097..081...091....14.5...-8.2......10.0....88
Rickylovesuall ... 5.0..5.0..5.0...5.0...090..100..110...100...16.0...-9.0......21.0....91
lostinashford*.. 4.2..4.3..6.2...4.9....095..090..105...097....13.8...-5.3......9.0....68
rameire .......... 5.4..4.6..4.8...4.9....089..120..085...098....13.2...-6.6......3.0....64
delw .............. 4.5..4.7..5.6...4.9...085..092..095...091....10.5...-9.8......12.0....68
talkabout ....... 5.3..4.7..4.8...4.9...095..090..100...095....14.1...-9.7......10.0....70
encryptix ........ 5.3..4.2..5.1...4.9...105..075..080...087....14.5...-9.2......25.0....90
John mac ....... 5.8..4.8..3.9...4.8....097..106..090...098....12.7...-8.9.......8.6....76
Wolfe_IRE ...... 3.9..4.4..5.9...4.7....095..105..110...103....14.9...-8.5......20.0....59
DOCARCH ....... 5.2..4.8..4.2...4.7...094..105..085...095....16.2...-8.6......22.8....79
waterways ..... 4.8..4.8..4.0...4.5....090..100..110...100....15.0...-9.0......8.0....72
NIALL D .......... 4.0..4.5..5.1...4.5....087..085..122...098....14.1..-14.3.....23.0....78
H2UMrsRobinson 4.5..3.5..5.5..4.5...080..090..095...088....12.6...-7.9.....15.0....74
flying11........... 3.9..3.4..6.2...4.5....078..093..113...095....14.5..-10.3.....23.0....76

Con Sensus ..... 4.7..4.5..5.0...4.5....090..095..100...097...14.5...-9.7.....17.0....76

homolumo ....... 5.1..4.5..4.0...4.5...095..109..120...108....13.6...-7.1.....11.0....73
M.T. Cranium ...5.5..5.3..2.8....4.4...090..110..070...090...15.4..-12.0.....28.5....84
Weathercheck.. 2.7..4.4..6.2...4.4...077..104..112...098....14.0..-16.5.....24.0....81
ironkiwi .......... 3.5..4.1..5.7...4.4...084..106..142...111....12.0...-8.5.....18.0....75
Mmcd ............ 5.4..4.9..2.9...4.4...090..095..065...083....15.7..-14.2.....21.5....77
cdev ............. 3.9..4.1..5.1...4.4...086..101..114...100....12.6..-13.9.....26.0....87
dasa29 .......... 4.5..4.0..4.5...4.3....095..105..110...103....10.0..-14.0....45.0....80
snowstreams ... 4.3..3.3..5.4...4.3...090..070..100...087....14.1...-9.0.....20.0....78
catch.23 ........ 2.8..3.9..6.0...4.2....060..080..120...087....14.5...-8.0.....20.0....80
force eleven .... 5.2..2.9..4.5...4.2...110..080..120...103....13.4...-6.7......5.0....67
okla*.............. 4.2..4.9..3.1..4.1....090..108..080...093....14.8..-11.2.....20.0....75
JFKIRELAND .... 4.9..4.7..2.5...4.0....085..099..065...083....14.1..-10.3.....12.1....69
steveLFC24 .... 4.9..4.1..3.1...4.0....078..105..083...089....14.6..-13.8.....39.0....72
Rebelbrowser ... 2.3..5.7..3.9...4.0....077..129..092...099....15.4..-10.9.....15.8....81
Elmer Blooker ... 2.1..3.7..5.9...3.9...058..090..150...099....14.8..-12.1.....12.0....78
Danno* .......... 5.2..2.7..3.2..3.8....085..065..075...075....13.8..-11.2.....40.0....94
MiNdGaM3 ...... 3.8..2.2..5.1...3.7....090..080..125...098....15.6..-11.9.....40.0....69
sunflower3 ..... 3.1..4.2..3.8...3.7....090..110..085...095....14.5...-7.2.....10.0....65
hytrogen ....... 4.7..3.2..2.7...3.5....089..113..114...105....16.2..-12.1.....17.0....86
Deep Easterly.. 5.3..4.2..0.8...3.4...085..160..045...097....15.7...-9.1......3.0...120
Joe Public ...... 2.9..1.9..3.9...2.9....079..069..089...079....14.9..-12.9.....39.0....79
Redsunset ..... 3.5..0.5..2.0...2.0....068..071..075...071....15.0..-19.0.....78.0....79
BLIZZARD7*.... 2.3..0.4..2.4...1.7....086..090..105...094....14.2..-17.5.....83.0....70

___________________________________________

Notes:

* one day late, 10 pt penalty

Con Sensus values are medians, they don't quite give an average for seasonal values as a result, but your seasonal values are averages (rounded off) of your three monthly forecasts. Check for accuracy. Table will be edited or reposted for later entries.

John mac

71 knots .. belmullet 9pm today...
could be a contender..

nilhg

John mac wrote: »

71 knots .. belmullet 9pm today...
could be a contender..

M.T. Cranium

Although that was only confirmed as 63 kts in the daily summary, we also had 71 kts earlier this month at Mace Head, so I am expecting at least that one to be confirmed in the Monthly Summary which is in any case the actual source for verifications in this contest. Looks like Dec IMT near 5.4 and precip likely to be very close to average. We've seen a max of 14.1 (to be confirmed) and a min of -5.1 (same).

M.T. Cranium

Confirmed the following data for the contest:

DEC IMT was 5.4 C and PRC was 100% right on.

So far (these can change) MAX is 14.1 and MIN -5.1, max gust 71 knots

At Casement, no snow yet.

Will post some scores after end of January to show how things are going, as you know scores in this contest are all based on rank order and not absolute error.

M.T. Cranium

For January, the final values were

IMT 5.3 C

PRC 121%

the MAX of December (14.1) was equalled but not changed for the contest period.

The MIN was -6.3 C which now stands as the lowest of the season.

No wind gusts exceeded the contest period high of 71 knots.

Snowfall of 2.7 cm was reported at Casement.

Now, the following table shows your scores so far, with asterisks beside scores that can change due to later strong winds or snow at Casement (so those two scores are based on what we've had so far), and the same is true of the seasonal max and min temps. The points for DEC and JAN temperature and precip are "in the bag" and cannot be adjusted by anything that happens later. Just to give a total overview, I have scored February as a month with an IMT of 4.5 and 100% precip and then the seasonals as though those had also happened together with what we have already recorded. This will give you an idea of how you'll finish up the contest if the cold spell is not overly severe and further precip is normal, no more snow falls at Casement before 15 April and no wind gust exceeds 71 knots in February.

The consensus in this forecast contest for February is about 5.0 and 100%, my entry in the current monthly contest was more like 2.7 and 80% and I have not looked at the consensus over there yet but it might be closer to the numbers (4.5, 100%) that I am using.

If those provisional values verified, the seasonal values would be 5.1 for IMT and 107% for precipitation.

Current Scoring with estimates for February and season based on adjusted consensus outcome

Scores are based on rank order, with 46 contestants, there are 4 in each category with scores of 10 or 5 from max score down to min score, and 3 in each category where score is out of 15 (seasonal temp, seasonal precip). Ties affect the actual distribution.

FORECASTER ........ IMT (DJF)/(mn) ... PRC (DJF)/(mn) ... MAX/MIN .. SNOW .. GUST... Total score
______________________________________________________________________________

nilhg .................... 5.0..5.0..4.5...14....4.0..5.0..5.0...15....09...10......10...10.....96.5

homolumo ............ 3.5..2.5..4.5...09....5.0..4.5..2.0...15....07...10.....07....09.....79
talkabout ............. 5.0..3.5..5.0...14....5.0..1.5..5.0...08....10...03......08....10.....78
rameire ................ 5.0..3.0..5.0...14....2.5..5.0..2.5...11....04...10......10...05.....77
waterways ............ 3.0..4.0..4.5...09....4.0..3.0..4.0...13....04...05.....08....10.....71.5
Strasser ............... 2.0..3.5..0.5...11....5.0..3.0..5.0...13....06...09.....08....05.....71

force eleven .......... 4.0..0.0..5.0...06....4.0..1.0..2.0...15....06...10.....09....07.....69
Bsal ..................... 5.0..5.0..3.5...14....5.0..2.5..1.0...06....03...07.....06....10.....68
traecy1 ................ 5.0..4.0..2.0...14....4.0..1.0..4.0...08....03...09.....09....05.....68
Sponge Bob .......... 4.0..4.5..3.5...15....4.0..1.5..4.0...04....06...08.....09....04....67.5
John mac ............. 3.5..4.0..4.0...11....5.0..4.0..4.0...11....02...05......08....06.....67.5
FionnMcCool87....... 3.0..5.0..4.0..15....5.0..2.5..2.0...05....08...08......08....00.....65.5
lostinashford*........ 1.5..2.0..1.0...14...5.0..1.5..5.0...09.....08...10.....08....08.....73 (63)
Harps .................. 3.5..3.0..2.0...15....4.0..1.0..0.5...13....05...04.....10.....01.....62
Wolfe_IRE ............ 1.0..2.5..2.0...10....5.0..3.5..4.0...15....05...06......05....02.....61

Rickylovesuall ....... 3.5..4.5..4.5...14....4.0..3.0..4.0...13...00...05......04....00.....59.5
sunflower3 ........... 0.5..1.5..3.5...03....4.0..4.5..2.5...08....08...10.....08....05.....58.5

Con Sensus .......... 2.5..2.5..4.5...09....4.0..2.0..5.0...09...06...03.....05....06.....58.5

delw .................... 2.0..3.5..2.5...14....2.0..1.5..5.0...05....00...04.....07....08....54.5
pauldry ................. 2.0..2.0..1.0...11...2.5..2.5..2.5...05....03...04....10....09.....54.5
DOCARCH ............ 4.0..4.0..5.0...10....4.0..3.5..2.5...08....00...06.....03....04.....54
ironkiwi ............... 1.0..1.5..2.0...08....1.5..4.0..0.0...15....00...06.....05....07.....51
NIALL D ................ 1.5..2.5..4.0...09....2.5..1.0..1.0...11....10...00.....03....05....50.5

encryptix ............. 5.0..1.5..4.0...14....5.0..0.5..2.0...03....07...04......03....00.....49
H2UMrsRobinson .... 2.5..1.0..2.5..09....1.0..1.5..5.0...03....01...08.....06....08.....48.5
snowstreams ........ 2.0..0.5..3.0...06....4.0..0.0..5.0...03....10...05.....05....05.....48.5
eskimocat ............ 0.5..5.0..3.0...11....0.0..1.0..1.0...01....09...02.....05....08.....46.5
dasa29 ................ 2.5..1.0..5.0...06....5.0..4.0..4.0...15....00...00.....00....03.....45.5
JFKIRELAND ......... 3.5..3.5..0.0...04....2.0..2.5..0.0...02....10..03......06....09.....45.5
flying11................ 1.0..0.5..1.0...09....0.5..1.5..3.0...08....08..03......03....06.....44.5
Rebelbrowser ........ 0.0..3.5..4.0...04....0.5..5.0..4.0...12....02..02......05....02.....44
Weathercheck........ 0.0..2.0..1.0...08....0.5..3.5..3.0...11....09...00.....03....02.....43.5
cdev .................... 1.0..1.5..4.0...08....2.5..3.5..3.0...13....01...01.....02....01.....41.5

Elmer Blooker ....... 0.0..0.5..2.0...03....0.0..1.5..0.0...12....06...02.....07....05.....39
MiNdGaM3 ............ 1.0..0.0..4.0...03....4.0..1.0..1.0...11....02...02....01....09.....39
M.T. Cranium ........ 5.0..5.0..1.0...08....4.0..4.5..1.0...04....02..02.....01....01.....38.5
catch.23 ............... 0.0..1.0..1.5...06....0.0..1.0..2.0...03....08...08.....05....03.....38.5
okla*.................... 1.5..4.5..2.0...05....4.0..4.5..2.0...06....06...02.....05....07.....49.5 (38.5)
karl tyrrell .............2.5..3.5..0.5..05....2.5..1.5..2.0...11....09...00.....00....00.....37.5
hytrogen .............. 2.5..0.5..0.5...02....2.5..5.0..2.5...15....00...01.....05....01.....37.5
steveLFC24 .......... 3.5..1.5..2.0...04....0.5..4.0..2.5...03....07...01.....01....10.....36
Mmcd .................. 5.0..4.5..1.0...08....4.0..2.0..0.0...02....01...00.....03....05.....35.5
Deep Easterly........ 5.0..1.5..0.0...02....2.0..1.0..0.0...09....01...04.....10....00.....35.5

BLIZZARD7*.......... 0.0..0.0..0.0...01....2.5..1.5..5.0...06....09...00.....00....10.....35 (25)
Joe Public ............. 0.0..0.0..4.0...01....0.5..0.0..2.5...02....05...01.....01....04.....21
Redsunset ............ 1.0..0.0..0.0...01....0.0..0.0..1.0...01....04...00.....00....04.....21
Danno* ................ 4.0..0.0..2.0..03....2.0..0.0..1.0...01....08...02.....01....00.....24 (14)

___________________________________________

Notes:

* one day late, 10 pt penalty

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

So, while it might appear at first glance that nilhg has this locked up, most scores including that very high one could change by 30-50 points depending on what happens from now to end of the defined winter contest season (15 April) ... some have more potential to go up than others, for example, if you're already below 71 knots, you can only go down, if you're already below 14.1 or above -6.3 for extremes, you can only go down in points if any of those extremes are improved.

For a lot of people trailing the leader(s) what they need most is a cold, snowy February, in some cases, a stronger wind gust would be helpful too.

I will post a revised table each time that a weather event makes this table obsolete. A slight snowfall will make no difference, we need to get above 8.0 cm of snow in total before the order changes much.

M.T. Cranium

Nearly final standings ... unless it snows a lot before 15 April or goes well below current seasonal low of -7.0

For February, the final values were

IMT 4.7 C

That made the seasonal value 5.1 C.

PRC 70% making the seasonal value 97%.

the MAX of December and January (14.1) was not overturned by the 13.2 max of February, and that category is now settled.

The MIN was -7.0 C which now stands as the lowest of the season.

No wind gusts exceeded the contest period high of 71 knots. This category is also now settled.

Snowfall of 0.5 cm was reported at Casement bringing the seasonal total to 3.2 cm.

Now, the following table shows your scores so far, with the note that scores can change due to later snow at Casement (that category is open until 15 April), and the same is true of the seasonal minimum temperature which is presently -7.0.

The points for DEC JAN FEB and seasonal temperature and precip are "in the bag" and cannot be adjusted by anything that happens later. Also the seasonal MAX and the maximum wind gust are settled now.

Scores are based on rank order, with 46 contestants, there are 4 in each category with scores of 10 or 5 from max score down to min score, and 3 in each category where score is out of 15 (seasonal temp, seasonal precip). Ties affect the actual distribution.

FORECASTER ........ IMT (DJF)/(mn) ... PRC (DJF)/(mn) ... MAX/MIN .. SNOW .. GUST... Total score
______________________________________________________________________________

nilhg .................... 5.0..5.0..4.0...14....4.0..5.0..2.0...08....09...07......10...10.....83.0
rameire ................ 5.0..3.0..5.0...14....2.5..5.0..4.0...15....04...10......10...05.....82.5
talkabout ............. 5.0..3.5..5.0...14....5.0..1.5..2.5...08....10...03......08....10.....75.5
traecy1 ................ 5.0..4.0..3.0...14....4.0..1.0..1.5...13....03...09.....09....05.....71.5

FionnMcCool87....... 3.0..5.0..4.5..15....5.0..2.5..4.0...08....08...08......08....00.....71.0
John mac ............. 3.5..4.0..4.0...11....5.0..4.0..3.0...15....02...05......08....06.....70.5
Sponge Bob .......... 4.0..4.5..4.0...15....4.0..1.5..3.0...06....06...09.....09....04....70
homolumo ............ 3.5..2.5..4.0...09....5.0..4.5..2.0...04....07...10.....07....09.....67.5
waterways ............ 3.0..4.0..4.0...09....4.0..3.0..1.5...12....04...05.....08....10.....67.5
Strasser ............... 2.0..3.5..0.5...11....5.0..3.0..2.5...12....06...09.....08....05.....67.5
Bsal ..................... 5.0..5.0..4.0...14....5.0..2.5..1.0...01....03...08.....06....10.....64.5
sunflower3 ........... 0.5..1.5..3.0...03....4.0..4.5..4.0...13....08...10.....08....05.....64.5
lostinashford*........ 1.5..2.0..1.0...14....5.0..1.5..2.0...15....08...07.....08....08.....73 (63)
force eleven .......... 4.0..0.0..5.0...06....4.0..1.0..2.0...08....06...10.....09....07.....62

Con Sensus .......... 2.5..2.5..4.5...09....4.0..2.0..2.0...15...06...03.....05....06.....61.5

Harps .................. 3.5..3.0..2.0...15....4.0..1.0..0.5...12....05...04.....10.....01.....61
DOCARCH ............ 4.0..4.0..4.0...10....4.0..3.5..4.0...13....00...07.....03....04.....58
Rickylovesuall ....... 3.5..4.5..4.5...14....4.0..3.0..1.5...12...00....05......04....00.....56
pauldry ................ 2.0..2.0..1.5...11....2.5..2.5..3.5...08....03...04.....10....09.....56
Wolfe_IRE ............ 1.0..2.5..2.0...10....5.0..3.5..1.5...08....05...08......05....02....53.5
delw .................... 2.0..3.5..3.0...14....2.0..1.5..2.5...08....00...04.....07....08.....52.5
encryptix ............. 5.0..1.5..4.5...14....5.0..0.5..4.5...03....07...04......03....00.....52
JFKIRELAND ......... 3.5..3.5..0.0...04....2.0..2.5..5.0...02....10...03......06....09....50.5
H2UMrsRobinson ... 2.5..1.0..3.5...09....1.0..1.5..2.5...04....01...09.....06....08.....49
eskimocat ............ 0.5..5.0..2.0...11....0.0..1.0..4.5...01....09...02.....05....08.....49
NIALL D ............... 1.5..2.5..4.5...09....2.5..1.0..1.0...08....10...00.....03....05.....48
flying11................ 1.0..0.5..1.0...09....0.5..1.5..1.5...13....08...03.....03....06.....48
snowstreams ........ 2.0..0.5..3.0...06....4.0..0.0..2.5...03....10...05.....05....05.....46
Weathercheck........ 0.0..2.0..1.0...08....0.5..3.5..1.0...15....09...00.....03....02.....45
Deep Easterly........ 5.0..1.5..0.0...02....2.0..1.0..2.5...15....01...04.....10....00.....44
okla*.................... 1.5..4.5..1.0...05....4.0..4.5..4.5...09....06...02.....05....07.....54 (44)
MiNdGaM3 ............ 1.0..0.0..4.5...03....4.0..1.0..1.0...15....02...02.....01....09.....43.5
M.T. Cranium ........ 5.0..5.0..0.0...08....4.0..4.5..5.0...06....02...02.....01....01.....43.5
Rebelbrowser ........ 0.0..3.5..3.5...04....0.5..5.0..3.0...13....02..02......05....02.....43.5
steveLFC24 .......... 3.5..1.5..1.0...04....0.5..4.0..4.0...04....07...01.....01....10.....41.5
ironkiwi ............... 1.0..1.5..3.0...08....1.5..4.0..0.0...02....00...08.....05....07.....41
Mmcd .................. 5.0..4.5..0.5...08....4.0..2.0..5.0...03....01...00.....03....05.....41
karl tyrrell .............2.5..3.5..0.5..05....2.5..1.5..1.0...15....09...00.....00....00.....40.5
Elmer Blooker ....... 0.0..0.5..2.0...03....0.0..1.5..0.0...13....06...02.....07....05.....40
cdev .................... 1.0..1.5..4.5...08....2.5..3.5..1.5...12....01...01.....02....01.....39.5
dasa29 ................ 2.5..1.0..5.0...06....5.0..4.0..4.0...08....00...00.....00....03.....38.5
catch.23 ............... 0.0..1.0..1.5...06....0.0..1.0..1.0...04....08...08.....05....03.....38.5
BLIZZARD7*.......... 0.0..0.0..0.0...01....2.5..1.5..2.0...12....09...00.....00....10.....38 (28)
hytrogen .............. 2.5..0.5..0.0...02....2.5..5.0..1.5...06....00...01.....05....01.....26
Joe Public ............. 0.0..0.0..3.5...01....0.5..0.0..3.5...02....05...01.....01....04.....21.5
Danno* ................ 4.0..0.0..1.0...03....2.0..0.0..5.0...01....08...02.....01....00.....27 (17)
Redsunset ............ 1.0..0.0..0.0...01....0.0..0.0..5.0...01....04...00.....00....04.....16


___________________________________________

Notes:

* one day late, 10 pt penalty

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Because of the dry February, the scores changed considerably (even the seasonal scores changed) and there is now a very close race between nilhg and rameire for the title. As they both have low snowfall forecasts any large snowfall will tend to drop their totals equally, as would any further decreases in the seasonal temperature. The totals are within the margin of error really, so if they aren't dethroned by a late snowstorm and points swing, I will probably declare them as joint champs. If there were to be a late snowfall and a colder temperature, then it looks like talkabout is the only person with a mathematical chance of overtaking the leaders and holding off other rising scores. Rickylovesuall could catch a lot of people if he can get 20 cm of snow and a colder temperature. That sort of outcome would tend to drop most of the leaders by 12-14 points and raise the mid-pack players with those kinds of forecasts by a similar amount. The bottom third are likely mathematically eliminated no matter what happens.

So this will be an interesting finish to the contest as models continue to hint at the possibility of a cold spell and snow with that, but it seems very late in the season to get a temperature much below the current minimum (-7.0).

Will report back on 16th of April as to how this actually finishes up, if any different from the above.

lostinashford

Cannot believe late entry may have cost me 3rd place

lostinashford

Now cost me 4th place as well ???

M.T. Cranium

If you happen to win without the late penalty, I have a clause in the rules saying that you get paid off equally with the actual winner. So don't feel too bad, it's very close at the top and there's some chance of a surprise ending. I don't think your chances are good mathematically speaking because talkabout has almost the same snowfall forecast as yourself, so if you go up he's going to go up, plus he has colder temperatures as a good option where you would lose a few points. The leaders just have to hope it doesn't snow much. I can't see a temperature below -7.0 at this point without a snow pack.

M.T. Cranium

Final Contest scoring
____________________________

See previous posts for most of the information about scoring, but two items changed slightly in the unprecedented March cold spell. The minimum fell a bit further to -7.6 C and snowfall increased slightly to 5.5 cm. These items will change the scores of a few contestants who guessed near those values, so this final table is not quite the same as the earlier posted provisional table.

However, the order of finish is the same and we can now say officially, congrats to Nilhg and Rameire for finishing 1-2. I feel that the difference in their scoring is "statistically insignificant" so will propose to name them joint winners of the annual prize (which is 20 euros). Messages have been sent to find out where that should be sent. Well done also to talkabout in third, hope to meet up on the golf course some day. Last year's winner traecy1 finished tied for fourth with Johnmac, closely followed by FionnMcCool. Thanks to everyone else for participating and better luck next winter.

FORECASTER ........ IMT (DJF)/(mn) .. PRC (DJF)/(mn) ... MAX/MIN . SNOW . GUST . Total score
______________________________________________________________________________

Score maximum......5.0..5.0..5.0...15.....5.0..5.0..5.0...15.....10...10......10...10.....100.0

nilhg .................... 5.0..5.0..4.0...14.....4.0..5.0..2.0...08.....09...05......10...10......81.0
rameire ................ 5.0..3.0..5.0...14.....2.5..5.0..4.0...15.....04...08......09...05......79.5
talkabout .............. 5.0..3.5..5.0...14.....5.0..1.5..2.5...08.....10...05......08...10......77.5
traecy1 ................ 5.0..4.0..3.0...14.....4.0..1.0..1.5...13......03..10......09....05......72.5
John mac ............. 3.5..4.0..4.0...11.....5.0..4.0..3.0...15......02...07.....08....06......72.5
FionnMcCool87....... 3.0..5.0..4.5..15.....5.0..2.5..4.0....08.....08...09......08....00......72.0
Sponge Bob .......... 4.0..4.5..4.0...15.....4.0..1.5..3.0...06.....06...10......09....04......71
waterways ............ 3.0..4.0..4.0...09.....4.0..3.0..1.5...12.....04...07.....09....10......70.5
Strasser ............... 2.0..3.5..0.5...11.....5.0..3.0..2.5...12.....06...10.....08....05......68.5
homolumo ............ 3.5..2.5..4.0...09.....5.0..4.5..2.0...04.....07...09.....07....09......66.5
Bsal ..................... 5.0..5.0..4.0...14.....5.0..2.5..1.0...01.....03...08.....06....10......64.5
sunflower3 ........... 0.5..1.5..3.0...03.....4.0..4.5..4.0...13.....08...09.....08....05......63.5

Con Sensus .......... 2.5..2.5..4.5...09.....4.0..2.0..2.0...15.....06...05.....05....06......63.5

Harps .................. 3.5..3.0..2.0...15.....4.0..1.0..0.5...12.....05...06.....10.....01......63
force eleven ......... 4.0..0.0..5.0...06.....4.0..1.0..2.0...08.....06...09.....10....07......62
DOCARCH ............ 4.0..4.0..4.0...10.....4.0..3.5..4.0...13.....00...08.....03....04......61.5
lostinashford*........ 1.5..2.0..1.0...14.....5.0..1.5..2.0...15.....08...05.....08....08......71 (61)
pauldry ................ 2.0..2.0..1.5...11.....2.5..2.5..3.5...08.....03...06.....09....09......60
Rickylovesuall ....... 3.5..4.5..4.5...14.....4.0..3.0..1.5...12.....00...07.....04....00......58
delw .................... 2.0..3.5..3.0...14.....2.0..1.5..2.5...08.....00...05.....07....08......56.5
encryptix ............. 5.0..1.5..4.5...14.....5.0..0.5..4.5...03.....07...06.....03....00......54
Wolfe_IRE ............ 1.0..2.5..2.0...10.....5.0..3.5..1.5...08.....05...08.....05....02......53.5
JFKIRELAND ......... 3.5..3.5..0.0...04.....2.0..2.5..5.0...02.....10...03......06....09.....50.5
H2UMrsRobinson ... 2.5..1.0..3.5...09.....1.0..1.5..2.5...04.....01...10.....06....08......50
eskimocat ............ 0.5..5.0..2.0...11.....0.0..1.0..4.5...01.....09...02.....05....08......49
NIALL D ............... 1.5..2.5..4.5...09.....2.5..1.0..1.0...08.....10...00.....03....05......48
flying11................ 1.0..0.5..1.0...09.....0.5..1.5..1.5...13.....08...03.....03....06......48
snowstreams ........ 2.0..0.5..3.0...06.....4.0..0.0..2.5...03.....10...07.....05....05......48
Weathercheck........ 0.0..2.0..1.0...08.....0.5..3.5..1.0...15.....09...00.....03....02......45
Deep Easterly........ 5.0..1.5..0.0...02.....2.0..1.0..2.5...15.....01...06.....09....00......45
okla*.................... 1.5..4.5..1.0...05.....4.0..4.5..4.5...09.....06...02.....05....07......54 (44)
MiNdGaM3 ............ 1.0..0.0..4.5...03.....4.0..1.0..1.0...15.....02...02.....01....09......43.5
M.T. Cranium ........ 5.0..5.0..0.0...08.....4.0..4.5..5.0...06.....02...02.....01....01......43.5
Rebelbrowser ........ 0.0..3.5..3.5...04.....0.5..5.0..3.0...13.....02..02......05....02......43.5
steveLFC24 .......... 3.5..1.5..1.0...04.....0.5..4.0..4.0...04.....07...01.....01....10......41.5
ironkiwi ............... 1.0..1.5..3.0...08.....1.5..4.0..0.0...02.....00...08.....05....07......41
Mmcd .................. 5.0..4.5..0.5...08.....4.0..2.0..5.0...03.....01...00.....03....05......41
karl tyrrell .............2.5..3.5..0.5..05.....2.5..1.5..1.0...15.....09...00.....00....00......40.5
Elmer Blooker ....... 0.0..0.5..2.0...03.....0.0..1.5..0.0...13.....06...02.....07....05......40
cdev .................... 1.0..1.5..4.5...08.....2.5..3.5..1.5...12.....01...01.....02....01......39.5
catch.23 ............... 0.0..1.0..1.5...06.....0.0..1.0..1.0...04.....08...09....05....03......39.5
dasa29 ................ 2.5..1.0..5.0...06.....5.0..4.0..4.0...08.....00...00.....00....03......38.5
BLIZZARD7*.......... 0.0..0.0..0.0...01.....2.5..1.5..2.0...12.....09...00.....00....10......38 (28)
hytrogen .............. 2.5..0.5..0.0...02.....2.5..5.0..1.5...06.....00...01.....05....01......26
Joe Public ............. 0.0..0.0..3.5...01.....0.5..0.0..3.5...02.....05...01.....01....04......21.5
Danno* ................ 4.0..0.0..1.0...03.....2.0..0.0..5.0...01.....08...02.....01....00......27 (17)
Redsunset ............ 1.0..0.0..0.0...01.....0.0..0.0..5.0...01.....04...00.....00....04......16
___________________________________________

Notes:

* one day late, 10 pt penalty

Have a great summer, perhaps we'll have a contest for that (look for details in May).