Shocked of limited rental properties in Dublin City Centre

Zamboni

:eek:
Country with high unemployment experiences rental demand in the largest employment centre.
Who'd have known...

Ray Palmer

Milk & Honey wrote: »

There are a large number of landlords in default on mortgages. Rising rents may lift some of them out of trouble. The banks are in no hurry to fund more building and crash the rental market again.

As a percentage of of landlords how high do you think it is?
My point is that rents will go up as supply is not increasing in line with demand rents will rise.

murphaph

Milk & Honey wrote: »

There are a large number of landlords in default on mortgages. Rising rents may lift some of them out of trouble. The banks are in no hurry to fund more building and crash the rental market again.

Exactly.

To me it makes no sense for the banks (newcomers to the market excepted, if there were any!) to lend a penny to FTBers, when it potentially removes a tenant from the system, who may be keeping one of their own distressed landlords above water,

Not nice or fair to people who might like to buy their first home, but looking at it from a purely financial perspective from the banks, why would they lend to FTBers at all right now?

The_Conductor

Ray Palmer wrote: »

As a percentage of of landlords how high do you think it is?
My point is that rents will go up as supply is not increasing in line with demand rents will rise.

As a percentage of BTL mortgages- between 22 and 25% (yes, as many as 1-in-4 are in default). As a percentage of landlords- much higher, its thought possibly as high as 40% of all landlords.

BOI are quite forthcoming with their figures- the other lenders less so......

The_Conductor

tara73 wrote: »

not meant judgemental or anything just trying to get a picture about dublin after not living there for a while: noticed almost every second place browsing through daft dublin sharing places/apartments is occupied by brazilians...why's that?

We held a campaign in Brazil to try to encourage Brazilians over here to learn English, and allow them work a small number of hours every week- akin to the scheme they used to have in the UK, only the minimum wage and general terms and conditions here were better (plus the UK have pulled the plug on their scheme). If you'd like an eye opener- over 80% of the people handing out Metro papers in the morning are Brazilians (not sure how/why they seem to have congregated into that little niche).

murphaph

Zamboni wrote: »

:eek:
Country with high unemployment experiences rental demand in the largest employment centre.
Who'd have known...

Well, many people seem or seemed unable to separate 500 empty apartments belonging to NAMA in a field in Mayo from rental prices in Dublin. They keep (or kept) pointing at all the empty properties nationwide and attempt (or attempted) to infer that rents would or should remain depressed nationally because of the national overhang, ignoring the fact that cities have at least some jobs on offer and fields in Mayo (just for example) generally do not.

We're gonna see some really interesting times ahead, could go like England with massive price differentials, the likes of which we've not seen before.

liffeylite

murphaph wrote: »

Exactly.

To me it makes no sense for the banks (newcomers to the market excepted, if there were any!) to lend a penny to FTBers, when it potentially removes a tenant from the system, who may be keeping one of their own distressed landlords above water,

Not nice or fair to people who might like to buy their first home, but looking at it from a purely financial perspective from the banks, why would they lend to FTBers at all right now?

Money is money. If the banks had the capital they would lend. They are lending more than they have been but still not enough. If a landlord cant pay his mortgage, they get the property back. Win win. I think as soon as a foriegn,capitalised bank comes into Dublin, we will see an increase in building, in the popular areas. They have to see value now. Dublin is still the 4th best paid city in europe with a higher average salary than london! Good apartments or houses for less than 150k are not expensive and the rent you can pull in on them will outstrip a mortgage. If someone built another 500 apartments at spencet dock and sold them for 150k ish, how long do you think it would take to sell them? I dont think it would be long...

tara73

smccarrick wrote: »

We held a campaign in Brazil to try to encourage Brazilians over here to learn English, and allow them work a small number of hours every week- akin to the scheme they used to have in the UK, only the minimum wage and general terms and conditions here were better (plus the UK have pulled the plug on their scheme). If you'd like an eye opener- over 80% of the people handing out Metro papers in the morning are Brazilians (not sure how/why they seem to have congregated into that little niche).

right, thanks, that explains it:)

cson

liffeylite wrote: »

If someone built another 500 apartments at spencet dock and sold them for 150k ish, how long do you think it would take to sell them? I dont think it would be long...

This is it. One bad legacy of the crash is that it seems to have imprinted this idea that building is bad and returning to building will sink us further into the mire. For sure; building 3 bed detached semi's in Ballinamore would do this. High rise, high quality apartments with the attendant amenities in somewhere like Spencer Dock won't.

A healthy economy needs a reasonable amount of construction going on in both housing and infrastructure.

riclad

I Think there,s a lot of non nationals staying here, and theres still non nationals moving here.
MAYBE nama has taken over of various companys, apartment blocks empty,
may not want to rent them.
I think there,s tax reason or other reasons ,if they rent them ,in future it may decrease there sale value.
Article in sunday business post said foreign company,s prefer to buy
completely empty buildings with no tenants.
I,D SAY it would be very hard for a company to get financing to build apartments ,even though there,s high demand for rentals.
AS posted before 100 s of ghost estates ,in mayo, kerry etc have little effect of the rental market in dublin.
i,m curious as to why so many non nationals are still moving here,
in the middle of a recession.
Most of the new tech company,s appearing seem to choose dublin .

if someone was to buy a house now ,split it up into flats ,
theres alot of extra expense now , re building bathrooms, under the new rooms.
there maybe lots of apartments for rent ,but that s too expensive for a single person, depending on your wage.
many people bought buy to let,for capital appreciation,
eg I,LL buy a house for 200k,in ten years ,it,ll be worth 300k,
now they are in difficulty, in negative equity,
1000 e rent per month does not pay the mortgage.
Most of the irish building companys are bankrupt, or controlled taken over by nama.
i dont see much hope of foreign companys coming in to build
on a large scale, i think there s a few small blocks 10 -20 unit apartments being built
at the moment ,around dublin.
Building companys cant build much ,if theres no loans, finance avaidable.

Idbatterim

I have noticed this for quite a while now, supply seems to keep decreasing and prices slowly rising, im referring to the D.14 and 18 areas...

Ray Palmer

smccarrick wrote: »

As a percentage of BTL mortgages- between 22 and 25% (yes, as many as 1-in-4 are in default). As a percentage of landlords- much higher, its thought possibly as high as 40% of all landlords.

BOI are quite forthcoming with their figures- the other lenders less so......

That would suggest that the majority of LL have mortgages?
I find it hard to believe how that has been derived. I can imagine those figure certainly apply to new LL from the last 10 years. It seems unlikely that the figures could be gathered on LL as whole. LL without mortgages wouldn't show on bank figures

Zamboni

Idbatterim wrote: »

I have noticed this for quite a while now, supply seems to keep decreasing and prices slowly rising, im referring to the D.14 and 18 areas...

There is a larger demand at the moment with FTBers grabbing their MIR but this is only a short term effect. Expect a quiet Q1 and Q2 next year.
Normal supply will continue through deaths.
There will eventually be a pull back on repossession moratorium - how many nice distressed houses will be for sale then?
There are folks sitting in your D14/18 areas who haven't paid buttons for a long time. They won't get to keep those properties. Give it time.

tara73

StillWaters wrote: »

Those pre 63 places have vanished from the Market. LL had to renovate to bring them up to standard, leave them empty or sell them on to be brought back into one house.

LLs did a mixture of those, but the end result is those very bottom of the Market places don't exist any more.

this is what I believe. they are still there, but vacant, because standard is too low. or have been sold to be brought back into one house.
that explains why there is such a reduced offer and the places which are on offer are mostly the same price as in the boomtimes, because of the reduced offer...:rolleyes: baaad.

whitesands

murphaph wrote: »

Well, many people seem or seemed unable to separate 500 empty apartments belonging to NAMA in a field in Mayo from rental prices in Dublin. They keep (or kept) pointing at all the empty properties nationwide and attempt (or attempted) to infer that rents would or should remain depressed nationally because of the national overhang, ignoring the fact that cities have at least some jobs on offer and fields in Mayo (just for example) generally do not.

Forget about the fields in Mayo, NAMA have 1000's of empty properties inside the M50.
If they have 100 in a block, they release 1 onto daft at a ridiculous price so it stays empty. A landlord would lower the rent to get someone in, not NAMA.
NAMA are most definitely manipulating the rental market in dublin.

markpb

whitesands wrote: »

Forget about the fields in Mayo, NAMA have 1000's of empty properties inside the M50.
If they have 100 in a block, they release 1 onto daft at a ridiculous price so it stays empty. A landlord would lower the rent to get someone in, not NAMA.
NAMA are most definitely manipulating the rental market in dublin.

Where are those properties? Are they completed and ready to rent or are they incomplete?

tara73

markpb wrote: »

Where are those properties? Are they completed and ready to rent or are they incomplete?

yes, how about clancy quais for example. is that finished? should be fully occupied by now, it's quite a good location, very close to the city center.
does it belong to NAMA? anybody knows?

EricPraline

whitesands wrote: »

Forget about the fields in Mayo, NAMA have 1000's of empty properties inside the M50.
If they have 100 in a block, they release 1 onto daft at a ridiculous price so it stays empty. A landlord would lower the rent to get someone in, not NAMA.
NAMA are most definitely manipulating the rental market in dublin.

Agree that NAMA is restricting the amount of properties under their control which are coming onto the market. But not sure on your basis for saying that those that do go on the market stay empty. The price may seem ridiculous to you, but they may actually be priced at levels that will attract occupancy.

This appears to be the case in the Elm Park development, where rents are high, turnover seems high, but volume is low. There's obviously demand there from due to the location e.g. from St Vincents hospital staff. But presumably those rental levels would drop considerably if all vacant apartments where advertised to let at once.

murphaph

liffeylite wrote: »

Money is money. If the banks had the capital they would lend. They are lending more than they have been but still not enough. If a landlord cant pay his mortgage, they get the property back. Win win.

Win win? The bank gets an asset back that may be worth half what they lent on it? (not forgetting the legal costs associated with the process $$$). Much better from the bank's perspective would be for the LL to continue paying down his boom time mortgage with that would be FTBer's rent! Banks do not want to repossess anything really.

New entrant banks will have a completely different perspective of course, assuming they have little or no exposure to the Irish BTL market.

liffeylite

EricPraline wrote: »

Agree that NAMA is restricting the amount of properties under their control which are coming onto the market. But not sure on your basis for saying that those that do go on the market stay empty. The price may seem ridiculous to you, but they may actually be priced at levels that will attract occupancy.

This appears to be the case in the Elm Park development, where rents are high, turnover seems high, but volume is low. There's obviously demand there from due to the location e.g. from St Vincents hospital staff. But presumably those rental levels would drop considerably if all vacant apartments where advertised to let at once.

Arent NAMA completing and renting out apartments down in sandyford? They are certainly drip feeding property to keep prices inflated but they are keen to make money also and they will sell places if they can get what they consider to be a fair deal.

riclad

I heard there,s empty blocks of apartments ,in dublin,
some completed,
some are in the process of completion .

You won,t see a sign outside, this building is owned by nama.
theres a large building going up near mountjoy square,
hill st,dublin 1, i presume its an apartment block.
I think the banks policy is put landlord on interest only,if they
are having trouble paying,
They,ll go for reposession in court, if the loan payments stop


completely ,Every few months theres an item on pat kenny radio
show, re court cases for house,s being taken over by the banks.

Maybe nama dont wanna put 1000,s of apartments on the market
at once, as it may bring down the average price per unit.

L1011

Putting one ad on daft != "releasing one on the market". There's only one ad on Daft per type for most developments.

StillWaters

MYOB wrote: »

Putting one ad on daft != "releasing one on the market". There's only one ad on Daft per type for most developments.

I don't undertand, can you explain please MYOB?

riclad

I think he means they advertise one apartment for sale in a block, rather than say advertise 200 units in block x, this might bring down the price ,or they don,t
want buyers to know this block is owned by nama,ie
we are desparate,to sell.
you might not wanna buy in a block, if you knew
200 units were empty.
there could be a problem with the service charges ,in future
if the block is half empty.
some company could come in and buy 100 units,
and rent them to ANYONE.

L1011

StillWaters wrote: »

I don't undertand, can you explain please MYOB?

You have 80 identical units to sell/rent in a development. Do you pay for 80 ads or for one?

You pay for one and leave it there till all 80 are shifted. This does not mean, as another poster claimed, that there is only one being offered.

Zamboni

MYOB wrote: »

You have 80 identical units to sell/rent in a development. Do you pay for 80 ads or for one?

You pay for one and leave it there till all 80 are shifted. This does not mean, as another poster claimed, that there is only one being offered.

What you mean DAFT may not be an accurate representation of actual properties in the marketplace :eek::D
The people that use DAFT as the source of all their misguided property statistics won't want to know that.
It conflicts directly with their assumptions of severely constricted supply.
I predict compartmentalisation or straight forward ignorance.

StillWaters

MYOB wrote: »

You have 80 identical units to sell/rent in a development. Do you pay for 80 ads or for one?

You pay for one and leave it there till all 80 are shifted. This does not mean, as another poster claimed, that there is only one being offered.

I see, thank you. I would imagine this is very rare though.

Zamboni

Zamboni wrote: »

What you mean DAFT may not be an accurate representation of actual properties in the marketplace :eek::D
The people that use DAFT as the source of all their misguided property statistics won't want to know that.
It conflicts directly with their assumptions of severely constricted supply.
I predict compartmentalisation or straight forward ignorance.

StillWaters wrote: »

I see, thank you. I would imagine this is very rare though.

L1011

StillWaters wrote: »

I see, thank you. I would imagine this is very rare though.

Could give you a list in my town alone. Mostly sales, some rentals. Ranging from 2 to 24 units to rent per ad.

RATM

liffeylite wrote: »

in the census running from April 2011- to April this year, there were 87000 people emigrating from Ireland. A high number.

Of those 87000, 46000 were Irish....

So just over half.

However, in the same period 53000 people migrated TO Ireland. Which means that for every single Irish person that has left the country over the last 12 months, they have been replaced by either a returning Irish person or a foreign person.

53000 people move to Ireland - 46000 irish leave. In other words, every single irish person that you know or your friends tell you about that has left, someone else has arrived here to take their place and actually7000 more!

They are not necessarily being replaced by someone else- the stats are counting the same person emigrating and then immigrating back into Ireland a year or two later. Don't forget that although there is a mass exodus to Canada and Australia at the moment at the same time it is not possible for everyone to stay longer than a year or two. If you're a doctor or nurse then yeah for sure, getting permanent residency is easy. But this is not the case for everyone so many of our young emigrating will return once their working holiday visa has expired.

On top of that you'd have another 5,000 odd students leaving Ireland every year to do an Erasmus year in a European university or else some of them go study for a year in places like Russia, China & Japan to become fluent in the local language Again the stats would count them on the way out and on the way back yet they are only gone for 8 or 9 months and can still said to falling outside the 'normal' pattern of emigration.