Shocked of limited rental properties in Dublin City Centre

RATM

liffeylite wrote: »

Money is money. If the banks had the capital they would lend. They are lending more than they have been but still not enough. If a landlord cant pay his mortgage, they get the property back. Win win. I think as soon as a foriegn,capitalised bank comes into Dublin, we will see an increase in building, in the popular areas. They have to see value now. Dublin is still the 4th best paid city in europe with a higher average salary than london! Good apartments or houses for less than 150k are not expensive and the rent you can pull in on them will outstrip a mortgage. If someone built another 500 apartments at spencet dock and sold them for 150k ish, how long do you think it would take to sell them? I dont think it would be long...

I couldn't agree more. In fact one of the primary signals that the property market will recover is when a foreign bank comes in and competes in the mortgage market. Primarily because BOI & AIB are not lending and nor will they be able to afford to for quite some time more.

But it doesn't bode well for happening anytime soon. Tesco are now doing mortgages in the UK and they were looking at entering the Irish mortgage market just a few weeks ago. They have billions of pounds of cash on hand to lend out and the have a ready-made infrastructure of supermarkets to sell them through, just like they do their credit cards and insurance. They could have come in and hoovered up a 5 year backlog of FTB'ers practically all to themselves. But their CEO looked at it and the board decided not to. Tesco are fearless market makers, they don't care how crowded a marketplace is because they know their firepower can blow any competition away. In the Irish case they would have little or no competition in the mortgage market as our current banks are hamstrung for lending. So the fact that they looked at Ireland and said no does not bode well for the state of play here at the moment or into the future- Tesco probably took a view that the worst of the recession in Ireland is not yet over.

So in my mind house prices will continue to fall whilst there is only 5% of peak level lending happening right now. We'll know house prices will rise when a foreign lender enters the Irish market and also when unemployment does down (one of the most reliable indicators of price direction but often overlooked)

Back on topic- OP rents in Dublin are rising because the average Irish person is not willing to tolerate as long a commute than what they were 5 years ago. This is a combination of increased transport costs and also falling rents a few years back attracting people inside the canals as there was better value. But now demand has outstripped supply so there is only one way for price to go, especially in D2,4,& 6

Kosseegan

Zamboni wrote: »

What you mean DAFT may not be an accurate representation of actual properties in the marketplace :eek::D
The people that use DAFT as the source of all their misguided property statistics won't want to know that.
It conflicts directly with their assumptions of severely constricted supply.
I predict compartmentalisation or straight forward ignorance.

DAFT is not a fully accurate survey of the housing market. It is however a useful indicative tool as to movements in the market. Trends in asking prices up or down are a good reflection of what is happening in the market, likewise changes in the length of time to achieve a result and changes the volume of properties available.
The current quarter and the next quarter will be key indicators as to the direction of the market.
In this quarter does the anecdotal evidence of shortages in supply in some sectors show up in higher prices and shorter periods on the market?
In the next quarter, what are the effects of the withdrawal of mortgage relief, the impact of the budget increasing taxes overall and the introduction of a property tax and water charge?

handlemaster

Kosseegan wrote: »

DAFT is not a fully accurate survey of the housing market. It is however a useful indicative tool as to movements in the market. Trends in asking prices up or down are a good reflection of what is happening in the market, likewise changes in the length of time to achieve a result and changes the volume of properties available.
The current quarter and the next quarter will be key indicators as to the direction of the market.
In this quarter does the anecdotal evidence of shortages in supply in some sectors show up in higher prices and shorter periods on the market?
In the next quarter, what are the effects of the withdrawal of mortgage relief, the impact of the budget increasing taxes overall and the introduction of a property tax and water charge?

I think the property tax is going to be a big one, if not only for the fact next year with its first year of introduction there will be uncertainty. With so much uncertainty at the moment with jobs etc people will hold off even further before buying.

liffeylite

RATM wrote: »

They are not necessarily being replaced by someone else- the stats are counting the same person emigrating and then immigrating back into Ireland a year or two later. Don't forget that although there is a mass exodus to Canada and Australia at the moment at the same time it is not possible for everyone to stay longer than a year or two. If you're a doctor or nurse then yeah for sure, getting permanent residency is easy. But this is not the case for everyone so many of our young emigrating will return once their working holiday visa has expired.

On top of that you'd have another 5,000 odd students leaving Ireland every year to do an Erasmus year in a European university or else some of them go study for a year in places like Russia, China & Japan to become fluent in the local language Again the stats would count them on the way out and on the way back yet they are only gone for 8 or 9 months and can still said to falling outside the 'normal' pattern of emigration.

I see what you are saying. but those stats work both ways so effectivley negate eachother. the leaving for a year people are on a constant merry go round, both in and out of the country. so if one set of stats is skewered slightly, so too is the other.

The big point, and one I cannot find stats on, is the question of WHERE do these 53000 people moving to Ireland go?

If 20 people leave a small rural town in Leitrim, do you think 20 Spanish immigrants head there to replace them...doubtful.

Its more likley that the majority of the 53000 head to the cities and especially Dublin. County Dublin's population was hugely higher in April 2012 census than it was in 2011.

2011- 1,199,000
2012 - 1,262,900

If Dublin increased by 63,000 people in 12 months(more people than if everyone from Limerick moved there), when emigration is high, does this add weight to the argument that migration is Dublin-centric and what does this do to housing demand..

The_Conductor

StillWaters wrote: »

I see, thank you. I would imagine this is very rare though.

It may be rare (as in, off hand I can count on both hands the number of developments that I know this to be happening in)- however one of these has over 1200 units, and the other 6 are all between 120 and 260 units. Curiously- 3 of them are in South Dublin. All are apartments. Wonder what they're planning on doing with Bernard McNamara's place in Elmpark?

whitesands

smccarrick wrote: »

It may be rare (as in, off hand I can count on both hands the number of developments that I know this to be happening in)- however one of these has over 1200 units, and the other 6 are all between 120 and 260 units. Curiously- 3 of them are in South Dublin. All are apartments. Wonder what they're planning on doing with Bernard McNamara's place in Elmpark?

The ones I know are in south dublin, NAMA want 1450 for a 2 bed off the stillorgan dual carriageway, the place is mostly empty as you can imagine :rolleyes:

gurramok

liffeylite wrote: »

Its more likley that the majority of the 53000 head to the cities and especially Dublin. County Dublin's population was hugely higher in April 2012 census than it was in 2011.

2011- 1,199,000
2012 - 1,262,900

If Dublin increased by 63,000 people in 12 months(more people than if everyone from Limerick moved there), when emigration is high, does this add weight to the argument that migration is Dublin-centric and what does this do to housing demand..

There was no census in Apr 2012? Think you mean estimate. But if its true as you say on the numbers, their only affect would be on the rentals which maybe a factor in current demand. Young Irish people who cannot get a job being replaced by young foreigners(who have jobs) who largely rent and do not buy. Exception maybe our British cousins whereby some of them do buy as well as rent.(source CSO census 2006)

Whether the current young Irish(potential FTB's) have steady jobs and finances to qualify for a mortgage is questionable, just look at the sales market, still in the doldrums despite the MIR incentive. They have to rent or stay at home. Investors are still largely not buying either which may reflect rental supply restrictions. Reduction of the RS subsidy maybe negated by adult migration here, its a wait and see scenario.

cson

gurramok wrote: »

Whether the current young Irish(potential FTB's) have steady jobs and finances to qualify for a mortgage is questionable, just look at the sales market, still in the doldrums despite the MIR incentive.

I think an interesting question is whether the current young Irish will want to hang the mortgage noose around their necks at all given the fact the current crash is likely burned into the psyche.

handlemaster

cson wrote: »

I think an interesting question is whether the current young Irish will want to hang the mortgage noose around their necks at all given the fact the current crash is likely burned into the psyche.

We humans tend to forget pain over time

riclad

It,s on joe duffy right now, re rental problems, bedsits etc
Bedsits will be gone, each flat will need a bathroom ,shower or bath.
i can see no of small flats decreasing ,
so you,ll get find choice rent a flat at a much higher rent
or share an apartment.
Thousands of people ,many on rent allowance will be evicted ,in dublin flats on lower scale ,eg 8o euro per week will be gone off the market.

i lived in a house ,old victorian house
4 storey, 1 large bathroom, on each floor.
Those house s will be sold off ,or just rented out
as a house.
People on lower incomes or rent allowance will
find it very hard to find a flat in dublin.
this law re bathrooms ,flats comes into effect february 1st next year.

gaius c

Zamboni wrote: »

:eek:
Country with high unemployment experiences rental demand in the largest employment centre.
Who'd have known...

Actually, Dublin has lost proportionally more jobs than the country as a whole.

gaius c

markpb wrote: »

Where are those properties? Are they completed and ready to rent or are they incomplete?

It's not in NAMA but Clancy Quay in Islandbridge is complete but mostly empty.
Elysian in Cork is the same, except that it is in fact 100% empty.

Oh and re the debate on emigration/immigration/population growth/household formation/etc, the only question we should be asking is how many of them have jobs and what kind of earnings are they pulling in?
If the average household income is only €22,168, then the average house price is going to have to match that. (aside-does anyone else get frustrated that it's virtually impossible to find median figures in this country?)

It's possible for demand to outstrip supply and still have price drops if the money just isn't there. Population growth means shag all if they are on the dole.

Katy89

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/receiver-appointed-to-firm-behind-clancy-quay-3197050.html

this should be the latest news on clancy quay.
development in receivership, something new..:rolleyes:

OMD

gaius c wrote: »

It's not in NAMA but Clancy Quay in Islandbridge is complete but mostly empty.
Elysian in Cork is the same, except that it is in fact 100% empty.

Oh and re the debate on emigration/immigration/population growth/household formation/etc, the only question we should be asking is how many of them have jobs and what kind of earnings are they pulling in?
If the average household income is only €22,168, then the average house price is going to have to match that. (aside-does anyone else get frustrated that it's virtually impossible to find median figures in this country?)

It's possible for demand to outstrip supply and still have price drops if the money just isn't there. Population growth means shag all if they are on the dole.

Average household income €22,000. No it is not.
Also why are people on this site obsessed with median wages and comparing this to average prices. That is a nonsense. Compare average prices to average wages

gaius c

OMD wrote: »

Average household income €22,000. No it is not.

Fine. CSO are lying and I'll just take your word for it.

OMD wrote: »

Also why are people on this site obsessed with median wages and comparing this to average prices. That is a nonsense. Compare average prices to average wages

Averages can be misleading. The average wealth of myself and Bill Gates is very high and I'm sure the average values of our houses is equally high.
Also, FDI wages skew our averages by quite a bit. Median figures help give an idea how "the other half" lives.

OMD

gaius c wrote: »

Fine. CSO are lying and I'll just take your word for it.

Or the Irish times are wrong. You are saying average household income in Ireland is less than 400 a week. That implies the average person earns less than the minimum wage. (1.5 incomes per household). The actual figures from CSO referred to annual equivalised disposable income which is very different. Average household income is about €50,000

gaius c wrote: »

Averages can be misleading. The average wealth of myself and Bill Gates is very high and I'm sure the average values of our houses is equally high.
Also, FDI wages skew our averages by quite a bit. Median figures help give an idea how "the other half" lives.

I have no problem using median wage but then you should compare median wage to median house price. I am referring to people trying to compare median wage to average house price.

riclad

IT seems most non nationals come to dublin ,so rental demand is high in most area,s.
if any area is increasing in population in dublin, and alot of students come to dublin every year,
mostly single people.,Maybe there s lots of empty apartments because the builders are in recievership,
or being taken over by banks ,or nama ,
and they have to think do i rent them out, will i get a better price if i leave them empty for 2 years .
And some buildings are not finished completely.

Sarn

I think the key word is 'income' as opposed to salary. If I remember correctly the average wage is around €35,000.

liffeylite

gaius c wrote: »

Actually, Dublin has lost proportionally more jobs than the country as a whole.

How can that be true when unemployment in county dublin is the lowest in the country. Wicklow and kildare, aka greater dublin, being the next lowest percentages. Dublin has the most jobs by far and the lowest levels of unemployment in the country.

Zamboni

gaius c wrote: »

Actually, Dublin has lost proportionally more jobs than the country as a whole.

But remains the largest employment centre.

If you are going to attempt to correct me, correct me for something I have actually said.

Zamboni

OMD wrote: »

Average household income is about €50,000

Is that net of tax?

handlemaster

The average industrial worker now earns €41,807 a year; the average salary across all sectors is down to €35,768.


http://businessetc.thejournal.ie/average-industrial-wage-in-ireland-576846-Aug2012/

gaius c

liffeylite wrote: »

How can that be true when unemployment in county dublin is the lowest in the country. Wicklow and kildare, aka greater dublin, being the next lowest percentages. Dublin has the most jobs by far and the lowest levels of unemployment in the country.

Don't look at the unemployment rate. We're exporting unemployment right now. Look at the numbers in employment.

Apr-Jun 2010 535.6
Jan-Mar 2011 515.1
Apr-Jun 2011 520.5
Jul-Sep 2011 507.6
Oct-Dec 2011 511.6
Jan-Mar 2012 503.8
Apr-Jun 2012 503.0

Table 6c
Dublin has lost over 30,000 jobs in just 2 years, that's almost half of all the jobs lost in the entire state.

TheDoc

Interesting I stumbled on this thread.

I'm moving out from the nest for the first time, and very quickly gained a place in City Centre. Heard about it Friday, walked into view on Saturday, paying deposit tonight with a view to move in this week .

Although it's a new project/developement as such

liffeylite

TheDoc wrote: »

Interesting I stumbled on this thread.

I'm moving out from the nest for the first time, and very quickly gained a place in City Centre. Heard about it Friday, walked into view on Saturday, paying deposit tonight with a view to move in this week .

Although it's a new project/developement as such

New development in city centre? I didnt think there was any of those :-) good luck with the move

liffeylite

gaius c wrote: »

Don't look at the unemployment rate. We're exporting unemployment right now. Look at the numbers in employment.

Table 6c
Dublin has lost over 30,000 jobs in just 2 years, that's almost half of all the jobs lost in the entire state.

Fair point but thats only jobs in dublin. Doesnt include jobs in border counties where the job holder lives in dublin.

Its still a high number to lose granted, but Dublins unemployment is only 11% versus a national average of almost 15%, rising to 23% in parts of the west. Plus, the population is still growing in Dublin, emigration or not. So that has to create housing demand.

Daft lists more properties to buy or rent in cork than it does in Dublin! Something seriously wrong there...

TheDoc

liffeylite wrote: »

New development in city centre? I didnt think there was any of those :-) good luck with the move

Not a brand new building.

It was a set of Georgian houses that have been combined or something into one, and basically new apartments built within, along with older ones being completely revamped.

The shrink wrap is just off the appliances and furnishing , paint just about dry

Duggys Housemate

liffeylite wrote:

Fair point but thats only jobs in dublin. Doesnt include jobs in border counties where the job holder lives in dublin.

Its still a high number to lose granted, but Dublins unemployment is only 11% versus a national average of almost 15%, rising to 23% in parts of the west. Plus, the population is still growing in Dublin, emigration or not. So that has to create housing demand.

Daft lists more properties to buy or rent in cork than it does in Dublin! Something seriously wrong there...

I am seeing 3,700 for sale in Dublin vs 1,600 in Cork. Bit tight in Dublin to be sure, however probably the time of year.

liffeylite

Home page lists Dublin as having only the 4th highest number of properties in the country!

Behind Cork, Kerry and galway and olny just ahead of Mayo!

However it does top the renting and sharing charts as you would expect.

Wonder why the big descprepancy with sales...

True it is December, but its December everywhere else also- so its a level playing field..There should always be more houses for Sale in Dublin than anywhere else.