Buying a house 2013!

kennyb3

sparrowcar wrote: »

I'm 3 weeks in my new home (Swords). We bought a family home 20k under asking price.

Firstly congrats on the new home.

sparrowcar wrote: »

Even if prices go down by another 5-10% it doesn't matter as it's a family home with zero reasons to move in the near to mid future. If the right property at the right price comes up then that is the time to buy. It may be next week or next year only you will know that at the time?

That's well and good but if it does go down by 5-10% you'll have overpaid by that amount - the whole moving thing only related to negative equity. What your giving up is the fact you'll be paying a higher mortgage every month - so it's the opportunity cost of this money. If you have an extra €100 - €200pm disposable income as a result of a lower mortgage that will give you higher savings/better quality of life (contribute towards meals out/holidays). I think your getting the two mixed up. Prices may not fall but I just don't think your point stands. I've worked out that as long as prices continue to fall by 2.2% p.a that i'm better off continuing to rent rather than buying (intangibles aside).

sparrowcar wrote: »

This talk of "panic buying" and "buyers in a Frenzy" is pure EA/Media/Misinformed bullsh!t I'm sorry but it's just not the case. It's what people who aren't in a position to buy now are holding onto to ease the uncertainty of next year. The EA's are telling us this so we buy now instead of waiting but more educated buyers out there will only buy a house if it meets their criteria, not because of MIR expiring.

Why would someone spend 20/30/40k over asking price for something that is only worth circa 15k over 7 years?

Stop believing the hype. MIR frenzy and panic buying reports are no different than the years hearing we "have to get on the ladder" "property is a safe investment" and my favourite one "Crash?, sure that won't happen here"

Do some you really believe that there are people running around like headless chickens putting offers on houses over the asking price? Just read the property price index and open your eyes. I don't discount an increase in interest and sales but certainly not widespread pandemonium like is suggested.

I actually do believe there has been a MIR frenzy. Take Skerries for example (I'm in the market for a house there). You can apply it to Swords or wherever.

Now from the PPR;

2010 Sales - 72

Q1 15
Q2 27
Q3 20
Q4 10

2011 - 48

Q1 12
Q2 7
Q3 15
Q4 14

2012 - 87

Q1 8
Q2 15
Q3 29
Q4 35

So Q3 & Q4 outstripped any period of the prior 2 years. Sales really dropped off in 2011 only for people to jump back in half way through 2012. Q4 2012 is extremely high.

I wonder why? Did lots of unconnected and independent thinking people suddenly all use their housing knowledge to discover that fundamentals meant it was a good time to buy? Or was it the media influence re a) MIR end b) the stabilisation spin. (take your pick).

Either way people paniced and followed others.

So is Skerries to small a market or sample i hear you say. Lets try Malahide;

2010 - 139 sales

Q1 32
Q2 37
Q3 42
Q4 28

2011 - 115 sales

Q1 31
Q2 22
Q3 32
Q4 30

2012 - 162 sales

Q1 - 28
Q2 - 32
Q3 - 34
Q4 - 68


So yet again we see 2011 declining on 2010 and then the early half of 2012 being quiet - then a big pick up in late 2012.

Again Q4 2012 has the highest overall volume. Mad isn't it?

Wonder why everyone used their own minds to decide Q3/Q4 2012 was a good time to buy

If we look at pg15 of this we see that house prices in dublin were down 3.4% overall in the first half of the year( and 8.6% in Q4 2011). Did it really just take the 3 positive months of April, May & June 2012 before people paniced? Are we all still sheeple who've learned nothing? It seems so to me.

With those Q4 figures for 2012 i really expect early 2013 to be a bloodbath. Seems to be very little activity on this thread.

Also look at the 2012 thread for evidence of the panic.

Ritchi

Panic does not mean overpaid, prices are still falling, so those who bought in Q3 and Q4 will still have bought at a lower price to everyone else. It is getting to to the stage where a lot of people can see a bottom of the market in sight, so if they were going to buy in Q1 or Q2 of 2013, they would have been(depends on the exact figures) better off buying at the end of 2012. I expect Q1 and Q2 for this year will be very low, which will even out the high amount in the previous quarters.

Obviously MIR is a big factor, but another reason is that taxes on second homes are getting higher and only going to increase, so I imagine any one with one is trying to offload, unless they are a proper landlord.

Having said that, I'm sure some people did overpay in Q4.

bidiots

I think there was an obvious 'panic' before MIR ran out, with people paying over the amount that the MIR was worth. Q3/4 of 2013 should tell an awful lot about the market imo

kennyb3

Ritchi wrote: »

Panic does not mean overpaid, prices are still falling, so those who bought in Q3 and Q4 will still have bought at a lower price to everyone else.

So prices are still falling but they didn't overpay???

Ritchi wrote: »

It is getting to to the stage where a lot of people can see a bottom of the market in sight, so if they were going to buy in Q1 or Q2 of 2013, they would have been(depends on the exact figures) better off buying at the end of 2012.

How come all these people came to the same conclusion re a bottom at very similar times?

What did they base it on?

The CSO stats for Q4 2011 and Q1 2012 didn't suggest. One quarter (Q2 2012) looked positive and everyone dived in based on that?

Ritchi wrote: »

I expect Q1 and Q2 for this year will be very low, which will even out the high amount in the previous quarters.

I do too. So what will happen to those houses still for sale? How will they sell without dropping prices to attract bidders? Do they hold firm and wait it out?

Ritchi wrote: »

Obviously MIR is a big factor, but another reason is that taxes on second homes are getting higher and only going to increase, so I imagine any one with one is trying to offload, unless they are a proper landlord.

Having said that, I'm sure some people did overpay in Q4.

I agree costs of ownership are increasing, which affects affordability which in turn affects price.

Anyway my point was just that something (MIR imho) caused a lot of people to come off the fence together in Q3 and particularly Q4.

The previous poster suggested it wasn't MIR but thats certainly not how it looks based on the statistics.

Ritchi

I mean they didn't overpay for the market at the time, which is evidenced by the fact that prices still fell in those few months. If there was a big panic, given that the supply of houses would remain relatively constant, it would mean prices would have had to go up, which they didn't. You're talking about in the long term, in which case you're most liekyl right, as the general trend is still going down.

I'm not sure if anyone thinks we're at the bottom, the bottom is almost impossible to predict, and can only really been seeing a long time after. But the general consensus would be that we are close to a bottom now. And by close I don't mean a few months, I mean it's most likely within 10-20% of the bottom(so about 5-10 from peak), but obviously, nobody can know for sure.

My point was that people usually come to a point where they are ready to buy, and given some may not be able to get a full length mortgage(due to getting closer to 65), and if they were going to buy at some stage in early 2013, they would probably have been better off to buy in late 2012. Now, if they are willing to wait until 2014, then they should do that.

Anyway, buying a house is not totally a monentary thing, it's where you live, and will most likely live for 30-40 years. Going into details about a few quid here and there, although something you should be aware of, is not the only thing that you should look at.

quad_red

And so here we are and it's 2013.

A second wee one due this summer, so after four years on the fence, I think we'd both like to settle.

Found a house in a decent area that we're interested in. Saw it over two weeks ago but not impressed with how the vendor and EA are asking. Promised a BER in "two to three days".

Nothing two weeks later.

With the stats from the house register we can see a house of the exact same type on the same road in considerably better condition sold for 40k less 3 months ago.

But EA has said vendor sees a strong recovery a few months down the line and can wait.

I would have hoped the end of MIR etc. would bring a new attitude to EAs and vendors.

Doesn't seem like it.

Ritchi

Vendors and EA;s are always going to think it's going to get better, and even if they don't they'll tell you it will.

Call their bluff and wait.

davet82

quad_red wrote: »

But EA has said vendor sees a strong recovery a few months down the line and can wait.

I would have hoped the end of MIR etc. would bring a new attitude to EAs and vendors.

Doesn't seem like it.

ya can blame charlie and the indo on spreading that delusion

crazy_kenny

I'm mortgage approved since October 2012. In the market for 4 bed semi or detached in Waterford. Prices in the city are in and around 170000. I have 15000 so would need to borrow 155000. Over 20 years payments per month with AIB at 4.3% are 958. I'm currently renting for 680 per month and saving 800 per month. I'd like to wait another year or two before buying but the other half has me under pressure to buy asap.

L1011

quad_red wrote: »

But EA has said vendor sees a strong recovery a few months down the line and can wait.

Tell the EA to let him have his crystal ball, and find a different house. You might get it for less than your current bid in a few months anyway...

qwertypop

quad_red wrote: »

And so here we are and it's 2013.

A second wee one due this summer, so after four years on the fence, I think we'd both like to settle.

Found a house in a decent area that we're interested in. Saw it over two weeks ago but not impressed with how the vendor and EA are asking. Promised a BER in "two to three days".

Nothing two weeks later.

With the stats from the house register we can see a house of the exact same type on the same road in considerably better condition sold for 40k less 3 months ago.

But EA has said vendor sees a strong recovery a few months down the line and can wait.

I would have hoped the end of MIR etc. would bring a new attitude to EAs and vendors.

Doesn't seem like it.

I'm dealing wit something similar myself. The ea I'm dealing with told me there was someone looking at the house this am my relations live directly across from the gaf and no one went next to near the place. This imaginary man also put an offer in of 15k more than my offer. I called her bluff and said na won't be rising my offer

gurramok

crazy_kenny wrote: »

I'm mortgage approved since October 2012. In the market for 4 bed semi or detached in Waterford. Prices in the city are in and around 170000. I have 15000 so would need to borrow 155000. Over 20 years payments per month with AIB at 4.3% are 958. I'm currently renting for 680 per month and saving 800 per month. I'd like to wait another year or two before buying but the other half has me under pressure to buy asap.

Never let emotions get ahead of a life purchasing decision.

RoverZT

gurramok wrote: »

Never let emotions get ahead of a life purchasing decision.

Agreed.

Your doing great as it is, fair play on saving 800 a month that's alot.

I think your crazy to change a good thing like that, wait.

Dan133269

crazy_kenny wrote: »

I'm mortgage approved since October 2012. In the market for 4 bed semi or detached in Waterford. Prices in the city are in and around 170000. I have 15000 so would need to borrow 155000. Over 20 years payments per month with AIB at 4.3% are 958. I'm currently renting for 680 per month and saving 800 per month. I'd like to wait another year or two before buying but the other half has me under pressure to buy asap.

I really wouldn't buy in Waterford city anytime soon if you're looking to get a house as its cheapest price. If I remember correctly, the Daft report from the end of last year showed that in Q3 2012, prices in the south east fell by 9%, in just one quarter!

Things are set to continue, high rates of unemployment, nothing new on the horizon, the airport looking as if it's going to close down, and there are still a lot of deluded sellers out there asking ridiculous prices.

This 3/4 bed semi-detached house in Kill St. Lawrence sold for 50k last month:
http://www.propertypriceregister.ie/website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/eStampUNID/UNID-F43EB05D7E8B596180257AF50051C4C0?OpenDocument

Gosub

I've just returned to Spain from a two week session of looking at houses for sale in the south-east. I went with files on 17 houses to look at, compiled the week before I left for Ireland. On contacting the agents on the first day, 3 cried off saying the vendors had accepted offers and 2 vendors had raised their prices saying they were not under financial pressure anymore - like this made the house more valuable. (I thought this only happened in Spain. "someone's interested? Raise the price!")

Another house sold the day after we looked at it, we went to the agent to make an offer and he said that a viewer offered 205K on a 218K asking price and it was accepted.

Only one of the houses we looked at was a desperation sale and therefore reasonably priced. Pity it was in a bad place for us. someone will get a great bargain there.

All of the agents reported being unusually busy for January with unprecedented viewings. I know... who can believe agents?

To summarise: the market seems busy and houses seem to be selling. The greedy and deluded sellers are still out there. I felt a lot of optimism on our trip. No doubt the Q1 or Q2 2013 figures will burst that bubble. I'm going to just wait and see.

gaius c

Idbatterim wrote: »

yeah strongly agree with this. Who knows whether the price increases in parts of Dublin are dead cat bounce or not, but Im fairly shocked at the increases in prices of rent and houses compared to a year or so ago. Just look from the price register what some houses were selling for last year, compared to what they are asking and selling for now... For anyone who doubts this, go visit the property pin!

The rent situation in Dublin is worrying. A single income family on average industrial wage type money will pretty much be spending half their net income on putting a roof over their head in even the least attractive parts of Dublin. Don't believe me? Have a look at Ballyfermot. You'd be spending nearly a grand a month to get a house there.

Daft rental supply in Dublin has gone from over 8,000 in late 2008/early 2009 to 2,300-2,400 before xmas. As of today, it's dropped to 2,157. That's bad bad news for renters and it just doesn't seem right to me. We spent over a decade building like maniacs but have burned through the oversupply in Dublin in just 4 years despite no appreciable population rise? There's something funny going on.

crazy_kenny wrote: »

I'm mortgage approved since October 2012. In the market for 4 bed semi or detached in Waterford. Prices in the city are in and around 170000. I have 15000 so would need to borrow 155000. Over 20 years payments per month with AIB at 4.3% are 958. I'm currently renting for 680 per month and saving 800 per month. I'd like to wait another year or two before buying but the other half has me under pressure to buy asap.

I don't mean to sound offensive but you'd be mad to buy at that level. Stress test to 6.3% and you get an idea where rates "could" end up because that's where long term Bundesbank rates always were before the euro. Interest repayments are dead money too.

And for anyone wondering about the effect of MIR on the market, I was told by an Ulster Bank mortgage advisor to knock 5% off any offers due to the removal of MIR. Banks are taking it into account in their calculations of what to offer us so we need to do likewise.

quad_red

Gosub wrote: »

I've just returned to Spain from a two week session of looking at houses for sale in the south-east. I went with files on 17 houses to look at, compiled the week before I left for Ireland. On contacting the agents on the first day, 3 cried off saying the vendors had accepted offers and 2 vendors had raised their prices saying they were not under financial pressure anymore - like this made the house more valuable. (I thought this only happened in Spain. "someone's interested? Raise the price!")

Another house sold the day after we looked at it, we went to the agent to make an offer and he said that a viewer offered 205K on a 218K asking price and it was accepted.

Only one of the houses we looked at was a desperation sale and therefore reasonably priced. Pity it was in a bad place for us. someone will get a great bargain there.

All of the agents reported being unusually busy for January with unprecedented viewings. I know... who can believe agents?

To summarise: the market seems busy and houses seem to be selling. The greedy and deluded sellers are still out there. I felt a lot of optimism on our trip. No doubt the Q1 or Q2 2013 figures will burst that bubble. I'm going to just wait and see.

I wish I felt like that. We've been waiting on the sidelines for years. Have a young family and the rental situation in Dublin is a serious pain in the ass.

I have no intention of getting sucked in but the reality of prices in Dublin really hasn't stopped people living in la la land.

Making offers based on the actual real data available on the house price register, as opposed to the magical unicorn asking prices, is still seen as horrifically rude to most EA's in my experience.

A house sold down the road (exact same type, in better condition) for x in November. X happens to be 42k less than the asking. You offer x minus 30k (a reaonable offer given that there is 30k of work required to bring the house up to the standard of the one that sold in November) and the EA was genuinely insulted.

Seriously - just spluttered it was 72k less than asking. He was genuinely pissed off. The asking price is 100% irrelevant. What is relevant is what houses are in reality selling for.

Gosub

quad_red wrote: »

I wish I felt like that. We've been waiting on the sidelines for years. Have a young family and the rental situation in Dublin is a serious pain in the ass.

I have no intention of getting sucked in but the reality of prices in Dublin really hasn't stopped people living in la la land.

Making offers based on the actual real data available on the house price register, as opposed to the magical unicorn asking prices, is still seen as horrifically rude to most EA's in my experience.

A house sold down the road (exact same type, in better condition) for x in November. X happens to be 42k less than the asking. You offer x minus 30k (a reaonable offer given that there is 30k of work required to bring the house up to the standard of the one that sold in November) and the EA was genuinely insulted.

Seriously - just spluttered it was 72k less than asking. He was genuinely pissed off. The asking price is 100% irrelevant. What is relevant is what houses are in reality selling for.

I don't know what the agents are getting their panties all knotted up about. Their job is to put any and all offers to the vendors, unless specifically told not to entertain bids below a certain level. They'll get their cut of any sell so it's worth pushing an offer, no matter what it is. 2.5% of a bid is still better than no sell.

Melanoma

Average rent Birmingham ... 724 euro. London varies greatly by area. 3 bed can be got for 1000 euro. Dublin is not London. I think affordability of houses has improved. Old small terrace houses sold for around 100,000 euro in 2000. Incomes and population are still ahead of levels then. Maybe they are worth asking price but I think levels will continue to fall by 20 to 30%. There is still the effect of abandonment of properties which will accelerate as people leave what they now believe is a dump of a country. Overall the recession has ended with an equity inflation bubble about to begin. Dunno though I am not confident about its sustainability which earlier I had expected to know by now. Too many financial instruments in play and not enough economy.

quad_red

Well, put in an offer today on a house that's been on the market for 11 months.

They had one offer last March (apparently). We're undercutting that significantly.

EA said zero chance of acceptance. Given the works that need to be done on it it's a fair price given what's on the price register.

Not holding out much hope for realism though.

Still, now that we've put to offer in we can move on!

qwertypop

quad_red wrote: »

Well, put in an offer today on a house that's been on the market for 11 months.

They had one offer last March (apparently). We're undercutting that significantly.

EA said zero chance of acceptance. Given the works that need to be done on it it's a fair price given what's on the price register.

Not holding out much hope for realism though.

Still, now that we've put to offer in we can move on!

I've done the same the the ea is in cloud cuckoo land. She's imagining other bidders now and all the misfortune. I'm a cash buyer with the money ready to go

Sunny Dayz

We are hoping to buy this year, but with the first month gone, starting to feel disheartened now. There seems to be a drop in the number of houses for sale in the area we are looking to buy (for work and school) as compared with last year. My hubbie has taken the role of contacting selling agents and his treatment has been terrible so far. Calls not returned, being given various excuses about not arranging viewings etc. It seems people will put a house for sale on the internet but make no attempts at actually selling it!
rant over for now!

quad_red

I have just seen a house added to the property price register in the area we're looking at.

It was sold at the end of November but has just hit the register in the last 4/5 days.

It totally backs up the offer we made on the house that the EA rejected as ridiculous.

Should I send this to the EA?

Or just we just sit and wait?

TheDriver

quad_red wrote: »

I have just seen a house added to the property price register in the area we're looking at.

It was sold at the end of November but has just hit the register in the last 4/5 days.

It totally backs up the offer we made on the house that the EA rejected as ridiculous.

Should I send this to the EA?

Or just we just sit and wait?

Thats the same type of situation we have found ourselves in. I would advise not sending it directly to the EA but rather asking again if there is any point putting in offers because house down the road went for **** and you believe your being realistic so obviously seller has no interest in reality?

quad_red

TheDriver wrote: »

Thats the same type of situation we have found ourselves in. I would advise not sending it directly to the EA but rather asking again if there is any point putting in offers because house down the road went for **** and you believe your being realistic so obviously seller has no interest in reality?

Y'see, that's it.

We don't want to piss the EA off. And ye don't want to seem too eager.

But... this is hard data. Yet again.

We made the last offer just over a week ago. I put an expiry date of last Friday on it.

Should I just keep waiting to see if he calls back or should I touch base with him.

I do want him to keep us in mind. But I don't want him to think we're desperate.

Mmmm.

makeorbrake

quad_red wrote: »

We made the last offer just over a week ago. I put an expiry date of last Friday on it.

Stick to your guns. Write it off - and keep the eyes open for the next prospect. If he gets back in contact, that's a bonus...but it will be on your terms at that stage.


Easiest thing in the world to spend $$$ ...so don't let the process frustrate you.

quad_red

makeorbrake wrote: »

Stick to your guns. Write it off - and keep the eyes open for the next prospect. If he gets back in contact, that's a bonus...but it will be on your terms at that stage.


Easiest thing in the world to spend $$$ ...so don't let the process frustrate you.

We are.

EA just came up with a BER rating for the house. It's a seventies hollow block build. No insulation in the walls, absolutely minimal insulation in the attic. A garage with a bit of dry lining on it (no insulation) with internal doors leading to it. It's a semi-D in a reasonably exposed position...

And it comes out C2! This is one grade lower than a new build that's up the road.

How the hell can that be?

I feel this is suspiciously in response to our negotiating on the fact that some of the work the house needed doing was insulation to bring it to the level that other houses were selling for.

D3PO

quad_red wrote: »

We are.

EA just came up with a BER rating for the house. It's a seventies hollow block build. No insulation in the walls, absolutely minimal insulation in the attic. A garage with a bit of dry lining on it (no insulation) with internal doors leading to it. It's a semi-D in a reasonably exposed position...

And it comes out C2! This is one grade lower than a new build that's up the road.

How the hell can that be?

I feel this is suspiciously in response to our negotiating on the fact that some of the work the house needed doing was insulation to bring it to the level that other houses were selling for.

lots of factors involved in the BER including the boiler, windows etc etc. Personally who cares if you think it needs the walls pumped etc your going to deduct for it.

they will either accept or reject the offer. I dont see how the BER really makes any difference to what they are willing to accept.

quad_red

D3PO wrote: »

lots of factors involved in the BER including the boiler, windows etc etc. Personally who cares if you think it needs the walls pumped etc your going to deduct for it.

they will either accept or reject the offer. I dont see how the BER really makes any difference to what they are willing to accept.

At this point we're out.

But the house needing all this work is a factor that is relevant to the price.

And the EA is addressing this by producing an impossible BER cert. After much weird evasion in regards to the BER, they produce this. How can a house with no insulation and a decrepit old heating system come out at C2?

There is zero insulation on any of the walls (no cavity insulation, no dry lining and no external). There is minimal insulation in the attic. There is an uninsulated garage 'conversion' connected to the house via poorly insulated internal doors.

Even if they faked it to D2 or something, I would've been amazed.

But C2!

One careful lady owner indeed.

D3PO

quad_red wrote: »

At this point we're out.

But the house needing all this work is a factor that is relevant to the price.

.

its relevant to your offer but irrelevant to what they want to achieve. Makes it irrelevant TBH your right to walk away though you make your offer they take it or they dont cest la vie

re the cert. Ive heard of forgeries. Did you get the cert details to see if its legit ?