Apple recovery?

mwaheedf

Noticed I could not see a Apple thread! Its been my best stock lol.

At the moment the share price has taken a bit of a battering but anything under 550 is a bargain as it has the potential to go back to 700+ within a few months.

All its products are smashing sales especially the iphone 5 and ipads.

A Primal Nut

mwaheedf wrote: »

Noticed I could not see a Apple thread! Its been my best stock lol.

At the moment the share price has taken a bit of a battering but anything under 550 is a bargain as it has the potential to go back to 700+ within a few months.

All its products are smashing sales especially the iphone 5 and ipads.

Apple is a fascinating stock in many ways. For example, you generally associate large caps with low volatility, low risk, reasonable profits in the long term.

At the start of the year, I would have put Apple in that bracket. An amazing company, high value, low risk and probably would only increase gradually over time. It was afterall, already the biggest company in the world by market capitalisation.

However in a 10-month period it almost doubled from 366 to 702. Amazing really. The stock multipilied 8 times from early 2009 - late 2012, which is amazing considering even four years ago it was an established company with Ipod, Iphone, etc. Would be amazing growth even for a small cap company.

Then it's gone back down from 700 to 561. So a very volatile large cap company. I'd imagine its a pretty low risk way of making money, as I'd expect it to rise again once sales pick up and the fiscal cliff is sorted. Ya might have to be patient but at some point in the next couple of years they will announce better than expected sales of a new IPhone or Ipad and it will be close to 700 again!

listermint

A Primal Nut wrote: »

Apple is a fascinating stock in many ways. For example, you generally associate large caps with low volatility, low risk, reasonable profits in the long term.

At the start of the year, I would have put Apple in that bracket. An amazing company, high value, low risk and probably would only increase gradually over time. It was afterall, already the biggest company in the world by market capitalisation.

However in a 10-month period it almost doubled from 366 to 702. Amazing really. The stock multipilied 8 times from early 2009 - late 2012, which is amazing considering even four years ago it was an established company with Ipod, Iphone, etc. Would be amazing growth even for a small cap company.

Then it's gone back down from 700 to 561. So a very volatile large cap company. I'd imagine its a pretty low risk way of making money, as I'd expect it to rise again once sales pick up and the fiscal cliff is sorted. Ya might have to be patient but at some point in the next couple of years they will announce better than expected sales of a new IPhone or Ipad and it will be close to 700 again!

Not with the current crop of legal wranglings damaging consumer sentiment, additionally the likes of the Nexus 10 and Microsofts Surface Business tablets will severely damage market share. The nexus 10 has proven to be drastically popular in such a short space and if the surface pro works out correctly it will steal a march on the ipad with its integration into the windows platforms for business clients.

Nonoperational

The problem is that they are very dependent on innovation and having that extra something that other brands don't have. On the law of averages they will have a disappointing product or two which could hurt the share price.

I agree though, I'd be a buyer at 550.

RATM

550 does look cheap for Apple stock.

But I am wondering if we are at a crossroads for Apple. Next years product launches are likely the end of Steve Job's designs. Samsung and Nexus are competing stongly in the tablet market and I wonder how much longer Apple can go on charging €600 for a tablet when there is ones of comparable quality available for less than €250.

The demand for Nexus tablets is raging too, the price points at so competitive that shops in New York have been in and out of stock for weeks now. Apple positions itself as a premium product which is fair enough but when you carry a price premium of more than 200% over nearby competitors then cracks are likely to appear. They had a first mover advantage in bringing smartphones and tablets to the mass market but it is now gone and I feel those who were playing catch up are turning up the heat on them like never before.

I know some analysts are on record as stating that Apple shares will break $1000 in the next 3-5 years but I'm not sharing their enthusiasm as the market becomes more and more crowded. We still potentially have some sort of Amazon and Facebook powered smartphones coming down the line in 2014/5. Google are deliberately selling Nexus tablets as cheap as possible (7inch is 8gb is only $199) just to get them into peoples hands and using their suite of products. How long can Apple compete with subsidised tablets before they have to dramatically drop their asking price ?

Roonbox

RATM wrote: »

550 does look cheap for Apple stock.

But I am wondering if we are at a crossroads for Apple. Next years product launches are likely the end of Steve Job's designs. Samsung and Nexus are competing stongly in the tablet market and I wonder how much longer Apple can go on charging €600 for a tablet when there is ones of comparable quality available for less than €250.

The demand for Nexus tablets is raging too, the price points at so competitive that shops in New York have been in and out of stock for weeks now. Apple positions itself as a premium product which is fair enough but when you carry a price premium of more than 200% over nearby competitors then cracks are likely to appear. They had a first mover advantage in bringing smartphones and tablets to the mass market but it is now gone and I feel those who were playing catch up are turning up the heat on them like never before.

I know some analysts are on record as stating that Apple shares will break $1000 in the next 3-5 years but I'm not sharing their enthusiasm as the market becomes more and more crowded. We still potentially have some sort of Amazon and Facebook powered smartphones coming down the line in 2014/5. Google are deliberately selling Nexus tablets as cheap as possible (7inch is 8gb is only $199) just to get them into peoples hands and using their suite of products. How long can Apple compete with subsidised tablets before they have to dramatically drop their asking price ?

Have to agree with a lot of this. I don't think you will see new highs for Apple in the next few years. And I think you will get an opportunity to get Apple stock if you want it at a lower price than today.


Liam.

drunkmonkey

It's not an Apple recovery, https://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NYSE:NOK I think it's nearly time to take a punt.

jank

Apple have had an amazing run but I cant see it lasting unfortunately. They will still be a strong company with lots of cash flow but their market share is being slowly but surely eroded by competitors especially Samsung.
They hit the jackpot 3 times really with their ipod, iphone and ipad. They will need to come up with more products for any sunstancial increase in share price. For those that bought them a few years ago, well done!

jank

Bumping this. Fast approaching the 400 mark. Might be a good buy under that price if it gets there. Some people think the bottom is 360 or so. Looks like they are going to release some kind of iWatch device this year too. Huge profit margins on those items. It could crash and burn though. Very strange stock this one.

lucky john

Apple was special becaue of the absolute drive and vision of Jobs. without him the future innovation of their products will always be in question. As share price is based on whats coming down the road I think this alone will hold the price way below its highs. add in the competition and these more price conscious times on top of that. The rise of the middle class in China with their huge spending power could easily be stunted if they run into a predicted recession.

The graph on this stock is strange. From 09 to a few months ago it was all one way. hardly a bump. Now its going the opposite way at speed. There's a floor there someplace but it would be a brave person that would call it. I'm around long enough to remember the dominance of Nokia 10 years ago. It was the must have phone(and stock). Have a look at their 10 year chart and compair it to the Apple chart. Scary!!

cgarrad

Blackberry is a better call imo.

lucky john

http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericsavitz/2013/03/06/apple-and-samsung-sell-them-both-says-berenberg-analyst/?utm_campaign=techtwittersf&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

Worth a read.

xertpo

I've been following this stock closely as I sold mine at $80 back in 2008ish when it took a dive, and I'm still kicking myself.

Their next hit may be the new generation of smart TVs. I was recently at CES in Nevada, and the current offerings from Samsung and Sony did little to impress the average consumer. The market is ripe for a next generation TV, as it is currently saturated with LCDs.

http://venturebeat.com/2013/02/13/apple-tv-sdk-launch-date/

RATM

xertpo wrote: »

I've been following this stock closely as I sold mine at $80 back in 2008ish when it took a dive, and I'm still kicking myself.

Their next hit may be the new generation of smart TVs. I was recently at CES in Nevada, and the current offerings from Samsung and Sony did little to impress the average consumer. The market is ripe for a next generation TV, as it is currently saturated with LCDs.

http://venturebeat.com/2013/02/13/apple-tv-sdk-launch-date/

I'd agree with that as a few friends went out and bought Samsung Smart TV's and they are less than impressed with the clunky software and poor integration. One of them was saying to me that that we have yet to see a true internet TV with a Apple like user experience. I've never used one of those Apple TV boxes but irrespective of that undoubtedly the market is waiting on an all-in-one unit that combines their music, on demand tv & movies, fast connections for gaming and good integration with apps. We've yet to really see that but whatever company delivers it first is likely to see a nice spike in their SP.

PrettyBoy

Came back to this thread as I recalled the OP saying anything under 550 is a bargain and it's at 457 today. Agree that it is a very strange stock...

Carnegie

I'm hoping it will stay at these levels for another 2 weeks when I get paid, doubt it though

TheBikeGuy

If they increase the dividend or implement a share buy back i'd expect a 5% - 10% increase very quickly.

Worth a read

http://www.sfgate.com/business/bloomberg/article/Apple-Seen-Raising-Dividend-as-Share-Price-Drops-4363772.php